The best part is, if and when Trump is able to find some kind of a deal that even approximates what Obama achieved, posters like CO.H will laud him for it, and try to invent reasons why it is better than anything the Democrats ever accomplished.
Keep this up and COH will start blaming you (instead of me) for this forum going downhill. Milton should get an assist, too.
WTF are we even doing at this point?
No one fucking knows. Trump is literally flailing and flopping like a fish, with no discernible rhyme or reason. He's conducting foreign policy like he did the tariffs, jumping from hot to cold and points in between. "Goals" and "accomplishments" change by whim, with overnight posting benders taking the place of sane and sober policy discussions with advisors, Congress, and the American people.
As I've mentioned before, the best we can hope for is a return to the status quo ante that Obama achieved.
I heard someone comment recently that if you put Trump's various comments about the war into ChatGPT, it would explode.
The US has never experienced presidential "leadership" like this before, and I hope to God we never see it again after this fool is out of office.
The ceasefire was originally set to expire Tuesday evening, but Trump has extended it to Wednesday evening and says it's "highly unlikely" it'll be extended again without a signed deal.
In other news, Senator John Kennedy said he "loves the president like a taco." Interesting choice of words. Freudian slip?
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-20-april-2026-a3ddc59230ae7de719a9ff9e7595e375
He is utterly and perpetually full of shit. He has ZERO credibility. And "he" is the President of the United States. How far we have fallen. Shame on everyone who continues to prop him up.
Some links for anyone interested:
Live updates at this link. Iran live updates: Trump says Israel 'never talked' him into war with Iran
US Navy destroyer fires on cargo vessel attempting to sail to Iranian port
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz as new talks are in question | AP News
Energy Secretary apparently didn't get his talking points approved. Trump says Energy secretary ‘totally wrong’ on gas prices not dropping to $3 until next year
Iranian official says US 'maximalist' demands stall face-to-face talks
Heard this was coming and it's as expected with as many weapons and ordnance, especially missiles of several varieties, we've used against Iran. US to delay weapons deliveries to some European countries due to Iran war, sources say
Mike Waltz says Trump's Iran infrastructure threats are 'perfectly acceptable'
Energy Secretary apparently didn't get his talking points approved. Trump says Energy secretary ‘totally wrong’ on gas prices not dropping to $3 until next year
I have heard from several sources that the price of gas is not going to be below 3$ for a while (at best, sometime next year).
1) As I mentioned somewhere previously, the oil wells and refineries only have so much storage capacity, and since traffic has come to a standstill coming through the straight, most of those facilities in the region that depended on Hormuz have shut down. Getting those things back into operation is not a "push a button and everything goes back to the way it was" situation. It will take weeks to months to get back to their throughput level that they were pre-war.
2) Related to that, while the price of oil itself fluctuates based upon the current events, the economic effects of buying and selling are not instantaneous. I'm not an expert on this subject, but the impression I am getting from some interviews with oil specialists is that the "shortage" of oil hasn't really hit yet, as there was kinda a back-log of oil that is still keeping things moving. The crude that was sent out before the war is what is getting processed / refined right now. So the reduced flow of oil hasn't really affected the market yet. It's the lack of oil now that is going to affect things starting in a couple of weeks. The price of oil jumping at the begging of the war was kinda a knee-jerk reaction, but even if the war ends tomorrow, the prices are still going to stay high because the processing is still going to be reduced for a while. The oil companies kinda get a "best of both worlds" thing because they get to jack the price up early before the markets have actually really been affected. They wont magically reduce the prices back in anticipation of things running smoothly. They only do that after things are back to full capacity for a few months (or more).
3) One last note, I think there is a built-in delay for payment, where you don't have to pay for oil that you received for up to at least a month after delivery. So it is common that there is a significant delay between oil contracts being signed, oil being delivered, and then payment sent that can be a couple of months of time. So the few tankers of oil that Iran did get out of the straight a couple of weeks ago (at a higher price than before because the US removed the cost restrictions), that money will be trickling into Iran for a few more months afterward, so Iran's fiscal collapse due to the blockade is not imminent.
Some POS with inside information about the Iran war effort made a half-mill the first day of the war off of trades about the U.S. strikes against Iran and the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israeli air strikes during the opening salvo of the Iran war.
This is a problem.
"Hypothetically, an intelligence official or military official could log onto Polymarket and place an anonymous bet on when a service member might be rescued or when a military operation might commence. They could then potentially make sure the military action they oversaw or aspects of a particular combat operation aligned with that bet to ensure they got a hefty payout without anyone knowing."
This is a huge national security issue, as well as an opportunity for greedy, amoral officials in government or the military (and those close to them) to make a shit-ton of money. This is, of course, reprehensible as "betting on the lives of our service members, on war, on assassination, and death is morally indefensible.”
Trump Jr. serves as a "strategic advisor" on the advisory board of Polymarket, and an "investor" in the company. He needs to get on this, assuming he's not one of the guys cashing in.
Unregulated prediction market may endanger US national security, experts and lawmakers warn
Energy Secretary apparently didn't get his talking points approved. Trump says Energy secretary ‘totally wrong’ on gas prices not dropping to $3 until next year
I have heard from several sources that the price of gas is not going to be below 3$ for a while (at best, sometime next year).
1) As I mentioned somewhere previously, the oil wells and refineries only have so much storage capacity, and since traffic has come to a standstill coming through the straight, most of those facilities in the region that depended on Hormuz have shut down. Getting those things back into operation is not a "push a button and everything goes back to the way it was" situation. It will take weeks to months to get back to their throughput level that they were pre-war.
2) Related to that, while the price of oil itself fluctuates based upon the current events, the economic effects of buying and selling are not instantaneous. I'm not an expert on this subject, but the impression I am getting from some interviews with oil specialists is that the "shortage" of oil hasn't really hit yet, as there was kinda a back-log of oil that is still keeping things moving. The crude that was sent out before the war is what is getting processed / refined right now. So the reduced flow of oil hasn't really affected the market yet. It's the lack of oil now that is going to affect things starting in a couple of weeks. The price of oil jumping at the begging of the war was kinda a knee-jerk reaction, but even if the war ends tomorrow, the prices are still going to stay high because the processing is still going to be reduced for a while. The oil companies kinda get a "best of both worlds" thing because they get to jack the price up early before the markets have actually really been affected. They wont magically reduce the prices back in anticipation of things running smoothly. They only do that after things are back to full capacity for a few months (or more).
3) One last note, I think there is a built-in delay for payment, where you don't have to pay for oil that you received for up to at least a month after delivery. So it is common that there is a significant delay between oil contracts being signed, oil being delivered, and then payment sent that can be a couple of months of time. So the few tankers of oil that Iran did get out of the straight a couple of weeks ago (at a higher price than before because the US removed the cost restrictions), that money will be trickling into Iran for a few more months afterward, so Iran's fiscal collapse due to the blockade is not imminent.
Up until now, the price increases have entirely been based on the normal volatility that any commodity shows as it's traded in real time in the context of fast-moving and ever-changing news. But there has been no shortage yet. The last ships to leave the Gulf before the war started are just now approaching port. We're about to see what a genuine shortage, not just the prospect of a shortage, can do to prices, because those ships are almost all just about home now. And the seas behind them are pretty sparse.
EDIT: Sorry, I'm rereading your post and realizing that I glossed over parts of point #2, and I'm really just repeating what you already said. Apologies. But it bears repeating, anyway, because people need to gear up for this.
Shortages and consequent price hikes are also being cushioned by countries dipping into their oil reserves.
Energy Secretary apparently didn't get his talking points approved. Trump says Energy secretary ‘totally wrong’ on gas prices not dropping to $3 until next year
I have heard from several sources that the price of gas is not going to be below 3$ for a while (at best, sometime next year).
1) As I mentioned somewhere previously, the oil wells and refineries only have so much storage capacity, and since traffic has come to a standstill coming through the straight, most of those facilities in the region that depended on Hormuz have shut down. Getting those things back into operation is not a "push a button and everything goes back to the way it was" situation. It will take weeks to months to get back to their throughput level that they were pre-war.
2) Related to that, while the price of oil itself fluctuates based upon the current events, the economic effects of buying and selling are not instantaneous. I'm not an expert on this subject, but the impression I am getting from some interviews with oil specialists is that the "shortage" of oil hasn't really hit yet, as there was kinda a back-log of oil that is still keeping things moving. The crude that was sent out before the war is what is getting processed / refined right now. So the reduced flow of oil hasn't really affected the market yet. It's the lack of oil now that is going to affect things starting in a couple of weeks. The price of oil jumping at the begging of the war was kinda a knee-jerk reaction, but even if the war ends tomorrow, the prices are still going to stay high because the processing is still going to be reduced for a while. The oil companies kinda get a "best of both worlds" thing because they get to jack the price up early before the markets have actually really been affected. They wont magically reduce the prices back in anticipation of things running smoothly. They only do that after things are back to full capacity for a few months (or more).
3) One last note, I think there is a built-in delay for payment, where you don't have to pay for oil that you received for up to at least a month after delivery. So it is common that there is a significant delay between oil contracts being signed, oil being delivered, and then payment sent that can be a couple of months of time. So the few tankers of oil that Iran did get out of the straight a couple of weeks ago (at a higher price than before because the US removed the cost restrictions), that money will be trickling into Iran for a few more months afterward, so Iran's fiscal collapse due to the blockade is not imminent.
Up until now, the price increases have entirely been based on the normal volatility that any commodity shows as it's traded in real time in the context of fast-moving and ever-changing news. But there has been no shortage yet. The last ships to leave the Gulf before the war started are just now approaching port. We're about to see what a genuine shortage, not just the prospect of a shortage, can do to prices, because those ships are almost all just about home now. And the seas behind them are pretty sparse.
EDIT: Sorry, I'm rereading your post and realizing that I glossed over parts of point #2, and I'm really just repeating what you already said. Apologies. But it bears repeating, anyway, because people need to gear up for this.
Some links for today if interested:
An Iraqi captain keeps sailing despite the threat of attack amid regional war
The Touska, the Iranian-Flagged Ship Seized by U.S. Forces, Was Under Sanctions - The New York Times
Trump offers mixed messages about US war against Iran | AP News
There are times that one must negotiate, some, through the media. One might have a message they want to send. But Trump has been negotiating continually through social media. I suspect Iran has no idea what believe. It cannot be helpful to negotiate this much through social media. I suspect it really damages the credibility of the people doing the face-to-face. I know if Obama had negotiated through Twitter there would have been a LOT of complaints.
It has to be difficult to negotiate with Iran. Clearly, there are moderates and hardliners, and knowing which is in power might be tough. I do get that sending a message through media to one or the other might be good. A message. Not a nightly rant. Is there any evidence he has negotiated business deals so thoroughly through social media?
What negotiation? Just a euphemism for ultimatum. If Trump is bound and determined to get ahold of the uranium then this war is not ending before Congress ends it.
Tacos, anyone?