@aloha-hoosier I saw this tweet yesterday, reminds me of your opinions.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2042965429920903619
And the unanswered question, what if China escorts tankers to Iran to get oil if they desperately need it?
They'll be denied entry.
The Persian Gulf has been a hot spot for my whole lifetime. The free market would have rerouted long before now if it could have. Even if the US could blockade the whole region for an extended period of time and stabilize the shock to the world economy, you'd still have a huge simmering pot right there at one of the world's central trade corridors. You can say that's more China and India's problem but the markets have spoken and they sure don't see it that way.Longer term the world needs to find better forms of energy than carbon fuels anyway. Maybe that will come out of AI advances and Artemis-type programs. In any case, Iran would have to modernize to benefit.
The neocon old guard will dementiate and life will go on.
@franz-znarf Maybe nations should buy oil from us.
They are buying oil and natural gas. The problem is logistics and it can take years for that catch up. You have to actually build the stuff. For example, the travel time of tankers is like 50 days instead of 20 days (to Middle East) to the U.S. So, you need a lot more tankers to make up the travel time, which people estimate will take 2-5 years. Who knows the exact number, but they'll eventually get built because the cost of doing business through Hormuz has went up drastically. No countries want to be reliant on Iran for their oil now.
The other option is for the cowardly Europeans and others to join us in removing the genocidal Iranian regime.
The Europeans followed us into Iraq and Afghanistan to remove genocidal regimes. They are far from perfect but they are trying to pushback against another genocidal regime in Ukraine. Their reward has been tariffs and that Greenland bullshit. The status quo re: Iran was fine with them and every US admin the last 45 years minus this one...
Very few MAGAs have a clue what GOP policies traditionally are or why we had (still have) them.@aloha-hoosier I saw this tweet yesterday, reminds me of your opinions.
Eh — we won’t be able keep this up for very long. The cost will be outrageous.
IMO some of you guys are really missing the bigger picture here. Iran can shut down Hormuz for just thousands of dollars and with absolute certainty. They don’t have to defeat the US navy. They just have to create enough of a threat to keep any sane shipping company or insurer away. We can spend billions (more) and still not keep it open with any certainty. We can kill several batches of their leadership and they can still shut it down. It’s their golden lever. This is why every administration played ball w them until now; it wasn’t weakness.
There is no golden lever. The free market will find workarounds and produce more oil in other regions. Iran screwed themselves long term. The percentage of global supply of oil running through the Straight of Hormuz won't reach February levels ever again (at least in our lifetimes). The reason other administrations played ball is because they didn't want to pay the political price of losing an election or two.
The Persian Gulf has been a hot spot for my whole lifetime. The free market would have rerouted long before now if it could have. Even if the US could blockade the whole region for an extended period of time and stabilize the shock to the world economy, you'd still have a huge simmering pot right there at one of the world's central trade corridors. You can say that's more China and India's problem but the markets have spoken and they sure don't see it that way.
Not sure I get the election bit. You're saying this admin is falling on this political sword to free the world of this Iranian regime? Not sure i buy that. Ya, they are bad dudes but the ME and the world flourished around their backward asses the last 40 years. this reeks of hubris.
Unless you're ten years old, the oil market has changed drastically from 1970s to 2010s to today. We have more than doubled our production of crude oil since 2010. To be fair to Obama had he tried this during his Presidency it would have been much much worse. I'll maintain my prediction that there will not be 20% of the global oil supply traveling through the Straight of Hormuz in the next 10+ years (outside them rolling over and being good little boys, which isn't happening). We will see.
https://twitter.com/polymarket/status/2043307137493872707?s=46
In your opinion, is it realistically possible for the US to actually blockade Hormuz if China publicly announces it will be escorting its tankers through? How would this be likely to play out?
How does one even stop a tanker if it’s barreling ahead without attacking it physically? (And without declaring war?)
It's an international strait and we are the world's number one advocate for maintaining freedom of navigation. We can prevent tankers from traveling through if we want, but then we'd be doing what Iraq was trying to do. This is very tricky. Blockades are universally considered acts of war. So, first thing is that it's going to be hard to maintain the stance that we're not actually in a state of war to evade requirements of the War Powers Act. Second thing is that I don't think we'll stop China from escorting tankers if they choose to do so. We're not going to sink the tankers and we're not going to attack the Chinese escorts. To do either risks an immediate war with Communist China.In your opinion, is it realistically possible for the US to actually blockade Hormuz if China publicly announces it will be escorting its tankers through? How would this be likely to play out?
How does one even stop a tanker if it’s barreling ahead without attacking it physically? (And without declaring war?)
In your opinion, is it realistically possible for the US to actually blockade Hormuz if China publicly announces it will be escorting its tankers through? How would this be likely to play out?
How does one even stop a tanker if it’s barreling ahead without attacking it physically? (And without declaring war?)
I'd like to know about the tactics used especially how we would open the Strait. Do we clear a channel of mines and then defend it from aerial attacks? Do we escort the boats and defend against small attack vessels?
Got to widen this war to include China, eh?
Iran has already declared a blockade wherein only they and their allies may pass. It sounds like this is what you support. Trump has simply said that NOBODY will pass. Why do you want the U.S. to surrender?
In the late 80s we cleared mines, defended the strait and escorted tankers with US Navy, and allied, warships and provided air cover. I've been expecting us to do the same at some point this time.In your opinion, is it realistically possible for the US to actually blockade Hormuz if China publicly announces it will be escorting its tankers through? How would this be likely to play out?
How does one even stop a tanker if it’s barreling ahead without attacking it physically? (And without declaring war?)
I'd like to know about the tactics used especially how we would open the Strait. Do we clear a channel of mines and then defend it from aerial attacks? Do we escort the boats and defend against small attack vessels?
If you think that's what I support, you're even dumber than I thought. I want the strait opened, I'd expect we'll be forcing it open. Surrender? That crosses from dumb to idiotic.Got to widen this war to include China, eh?
Iran has already declared a blockade wherein only they and their allies may pass. It sounds like this is what you support. Trump has simply said that NOBODY will pass. Why do you want the U.S. to surrender?
FYI, I advocated sinking Iran's entire Navy for their part in killing Americans in Iraq and elsewhere for a couple decades. I advocated for an ultimatum to Iran's leaders that if Iran was responsible for even one more American death, we'd sink their Navy. I was called a warmonger by the liberals here at the time - then the MAGAs started calling me a warmonger. Look at how MAGA has become the warmongers now. They have no personal principles.
In the late 80s we cleared mines, defended the strait and escorted tankers with US Navy, and allied, warships and provided air cover. I've been expecting us to do the same at some point this time.
This would have been during the Iraq/Iran war?