Cuts in September are basically a done deal and multiple cuts this year are likely. Not to mention a dovish Fed chair in May. I think the market will do well the next 12-18 months. The data on the economy has been somewhat mixed, but as of late more positive (GDP growth above 2% and PMI data surprised to the upside). I still think going this big on tariffs without significant cuts income taxes was a bad idea, but crazy Don might pull this off. Also, middle and working class wages should start to outpace inflation with the increase in deportations and closing of the border. I think goalposts should shift to whether or not the GOP will hold onto the House and Senate in 26. Based on history they should lose one, but Trump is pretty damn good at politics.
As I posted a few days ago, I don’t like this at all and this is a more important criticism of the Trump administration than dozens of Epsteins, yet it won’t be discussed because it’s complicated. The government is also angling for an equity stake in a rare earth company.
I would love to see someone run the numbers on what our national finances would look like if we had passed a law in 1980 that every new corporation that registered in the US had to pay 0.5% of its stock to the Treasury, to be held passively for the American people, 5% of the total sold off every year to pay down debt.
