@big-ryan someone should tell the traders in the Fed futures market then. They apparently didn't get the memo as they are not really pricing in rate cuts.
If I knew how to trade them, I would go long rate cuts by May and even longer by year-end.
I have no clue how to trade them as well, but I think the market is basically pricing in 2 or 3 cuts for the year. Not sure how much money you'd make unless you bet on 4 or more.
@jdb you could get the equivalent trade from the prediction markets. They seem to follow the Fed Fund Futures very tightly, from what I've seen.
Earliest you could see a cut is in June. They don't have a May meeting and April is looking like basically zero chance. Even June... Highest prediction is no cut.
@jdb you could get the equivalent trade from the prediction markets. They seem to follow the Fed Fund Futures very tightly, from what I've seen.
Earliest you could see a cut is in June. They don't have a May meeting and April is looking like basically zero chance. Even June... Highest prediction is no cut.
https://kalshi.com/category/economics/fed
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun
Never used these betting platforms, but I like it. I also wonder if dumb money moves this one way or the other. For instance, the probability of zero rates by the end of the year jumped from 3 to 8%.
Things would have to deteriorate rapidly to impact April, but I could see June in play.
@big-ryan someone should tell the traders in the Fed futures market then. They apparently didn't get the memo as they are not really pricing in rate cuts.
If I knew how to trade them, I would go long rate cuts by May and even longer by year-end.
I have no clue how to trade them as well, but I think the market is basically pricing in 2 or 3 cuts for the year. Not sure how much money you'd make unless you bet on 4 or more.
Looks like only 2
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
@big-ryan someone should tell the traders in the Fed futures market then. They apparently didn't get the memo as they are not really pricing in rate cuts.
If I knew how to trade them, I would go long rate cuts by May and even longer by year-end.
I have no clue how to trade them as well, but I think the market is basically pricing in 2 or 3 cuts for the year. Not sure how much money you'd make unless you bet on 4 or more.
Looks like only 2. You can bet on the magnitude as well.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Mods can you fix the thread? I can't access the last page now. It did that thing again.
Mods can you fix the thread? I can't access the last page now. It did that thing again.
Slow for me too.
I think this software chokes when you get a really really long thread going. I suppose if it gets bad enough we can start another one.
ETA: My bad. I thought I was in the Iran thread. Yeah, this one is fubar.
Let me get my kid to bed and I’ll take a deeper look at it. We have much longer threads that work just fine.
I also cleared the cache of the forum. I need to just do that once a day
I also cleared the cache of the forum. I need to just do that once a day
I really feel like there are just some forms of media that slow things down. Broken links to Twitter for example. Probably other things. I think this is probably a very under the hood issue that involves how WP finds and then integrates and feeds embedded links to content.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2031709287198704071?s=46
Nothing exciting. In line with expectations.