https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/2098389192493408626
Oh great, now we will embargo half the world (or more) with Smoot-Hawley II; The Executive Order.
@big-ryan in response to your “ trump fucked everything up.” No Biden fckd everything up. 9.1 percent inflation in 2022. Highest in 40 years. Houses spiked in part bc of draconian covid virtue signaling from Dems. Gas. Etc. Dems fckd everything up. Trump has done little to fix it and/or made things worse.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/2098389192493408626
I doubt raising rates will do much in slowing inflation, unless they crash the market. Inflation isn't being driven by the banks like it was in the 70s? And if they put the economy into recession deficit spending will blow out even more at higher rates.
The market is up big today so clearly investors aren't seeing a big rate hike.
It's one day, but it's pretty easy to make a bull case. Earnings are up around 30% YoY compared to long term averages of 10%. Inflation is sticky and elevated, but it seems to be anchored around 3% (core 2.5). Two big drivers of it are energy and cap ex. Energy will eventually subside and AI should be deflationary and great for margins. At some point the investments turn to productivity gains and company and consumers benefit.The market is up big today so clearly investors aren't seeing a big rate hike.
GDP growth for Q3 is looking like it will be closer to 3 than 2. Two major headwinds were higher rates and oil going to 150-200. Well we have higher rates and oil (not as high as they predicted) and the economy is still humming around. If none of that convinces you where else are you going to put money? I agree everything is pricey and we're long overdue for a major correction, but it's difficult to fade that set up. Perhaps we all don't die and we do have another industrialized revolution.