@jdb the K shape marches on. I've been following the loan delinquencies for many months. The credit card numbers are really bad.
It's still not getting hot.
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/credit/us-credit-card-debt-af5c7c77?mod=hp_lead_pos7
To be fair, the changes in the mortgage industry after the Great Recession debacle might save our bacon. Auto Lending is a shit show but it's nowhere near the timebomb that mortgages were, for a variety of reasons.
Ain't nobody paying student loans.
Imagine how much he's underperformed because of his bearishness
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1847251268781183416
@jdb the K shape marches on. I've been following the loan delinquencies for many months. The credit card numbers are really bad.
Per Fred
Mortgage debt makes up about 70% of the total debt balance which is down from the peak in 2008/9 (around 74%). though mortgage debt is starting to grow again as a %. It was down in the 67-68% range in 2019. CC debt runs 6-7% which is nearly unchanged from 08/9 and down from early 2000's. Auto Loans are gross of course, now over 9% (6-7 in 08/09)
total debt load though...fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Might pop 19t this year. but who's holding that debt? Poor people? Some but I suspect most of it is middle to upper middle class and up.
the one thing about CC debt is the YoY increase though. Ffs from Q1 2022 thru Q2 2024 each quarter showed, on average, a 15% YoY increase. Yikes.
That's the deep state making Trump look bad.
Tweets from Rosenberg:
- Dec 28, 2018: Listed contracting areas (housing, non-residential construction, capex, widening trade deficit, unwinding inventories, rolling-over consumer spending plans, fiscal gridlock) and added sarcastically: “No recession in ‘19, eh?”
-
Rosenberg repeatedly forecasted a recession due to Fed tightening, inverted yield curve, weakening labor data, and Gross Output (GO) signals. He compared patterns to 2007–2008 and argued the economy was already in or on the edge of one by 2023–2025.
Something something broken clocks. It does boggle the mind and makes one wonder how the fuck we aren't in a recession now. I'd like to believe the American economy is just so ridiculously strong that recessions are, at least big ones, over. But we have to pay the piper at some point. Govt is $40t in debt and Americans are nearing $20t in debt. That's a $60t hole getting deeper and deeper every day. Not to go full @snarlcakes but we can't money print our way out of this. The AI gamble better pay off, and for more of the country than just the tech overlords. It almost needs to fundamentally change the way we organize an economy (and, b/c USA, the government) in order for us to pull out of the nosedive. Methinks anyway.That's the deep state making Trump look bad.
Tweets from Rosenberg:
- Dec 28, 2018: Listed contracting areas (housing, non-residential construction, capex, widening trade deficit, unwinding inventories, rolling-over consumer spending plans, fiscal gridlock) and added sarcastically: “No recession in ‘19, eh?”
Rosenberg repeatedly forecasted a recession due to Fed tightening, inverted yield curve, weakening labor data, and Gross Output (GO) signals. He compared patterns to 2007–2008 and argued the economy was already in or on the edge of one by 2023–2025.
@larsiu I think AI will exacerbate the K shaped economy. Just make things worse
@jdb is there anything in those numbers he posted that are incorrect? I don't care about his market projections. Every asshole has an opinion on the market future, most are wrong.
@jdb is there anything in those numbers he posted that are incorrect? I don't care about his market projections. Every asshole has an opinion on the market future, most are wrong.
I'm pointing out his flair for dramatics. I haven't fact-checked any of those stats and don't plan to. I don't think the economy is humming by any stretch - just pointing out that he's no different than Tyler Durden.
Hey, we could be Canada
@larsiu hate to break it to you, but they can print their way out of it. And that's what they're going to do. I'd argue they're already a doing it.
Side note, the first party to cut incomes taxes for the bottom 50-75% of society wins the next couple of election. Labor has been getting slaughtered for a couple decades now and that trend looks to only be accelerating with AI.