So to answer the thread title: Tourney chances are better. Let's see if they can build some momentum on the West Coast trip.
Id be OK with the play in game, at this point. Better would be great, but get in.
tourney chances, 30%
Just checked bracketology on ESPN and as of right now they have us as the last team in. I have a hard time seeing it. Tough schedule coming up and the team really needs to build on the Purdue win to beat some teams we probably didn't expect to beat going into the season. We've looked so bad against teams like Michigan, Louisville, Iowa, etc... I don't know if the committee looks at that- we were not remotely competitive in those games. With 4 tough road games still left (plus @OSU), we need to steal at least 1 of them and hold home court, including the MSU game.
That choke job against Nebraska is a real killer right now. That would have been a huge win. I know Nebraska is a really good team, but to blow that lead in the 2nd half, at home... can't do that.
Sitting her today and projecting out our record for the rest of the year, I don't think we'll get in. Feels likely that we'll go 4-6 down the stretch- lose all 5 roadies and drop the home game to MSU. That's 18-13 heading into the BTT. Won't be good enough. But, we have a chance to play ourselves into the dance by continuing to play like we did against Purdue and in the 1st half against Nebraska. I just don't think it'll happen.
SI.com has us as one of the last 4 out, but that was last updated before the Purdue game, so who knows. I saw something the other day, also before the Purdue game, forget which site, that didn't have us on either the last 4 out or the next 4 out. We were nowhere to be found... so who knows!
@jhoban19 Yeah still feels like a long shot. But, take a bunch of mid-major players, put them on a new team together, have them play a lot of cupcakes early, then reality hits when we start playing real teams. Takes some time to shake off the old ideas about the mental toughness and energy level required for all 40 minutes, every game. Maybe that's starting to change. It's optimistic, but better to be improving late in the season than declining. Unfortunately two wins is not enough to prove that we've turned a corner, and there's still a big hill to climb even if its true.
Just checked bracketology on ESPN and as of right now they have us as the last team in. I have a hard time seeing it. Tough schedule coming up and the team really needs to build on the Purdue win to beat some teams we probably didn't expect to beat going into the season. We've looked so bad against teams like Michigan, Louisville, Iowa, etc... I don't know if the committee looks at that- we were not remotely competitive in those games. With 4 tough road games still left (plus @OSU), we need to steal at least 1 of them and hold home court, including the MSU game.
That choke job against Nebraska is a real killer right now. That would have been a huge win. I know Nebraska is a really good team, but to blow that lead in the 2nd half, at home... can't do that.
Sitting her today and projecting out our record for the rest of the year, I don't think we'll get in. Feels likely that we'll go 4-6 down the stretch- lose all 5 roadies and drop the home game to MSU. That's 18-13 heading into the BTT. Won't be good enough. But, we have a chance to play ourselves into the dance by continuing to play like we did against Purdue and in the 1st half against Nebraska. I just don't think it'll happen.
SI.com has us as one of the last 4 out, but that was last updated before the Purdue game, so who knows. I saw something the other day, also before the Purdue game, forget which site, that didn't have us on either the last 4 out or the next 4 out. We were nowhere to be found... so who knows!
I am shocked with only one actual good win to be on the bubble. The bubble must be as weak as it has ever been. I dont not see anyway this team wins at Illinois or Purdue. Probably need to win at UCLA and beat Michigan State at home bare minimum. The problem is this team usually can only put one good half of play in vs the better teams. On the road that will not cut it.
@arioznahoosier4554 CDD did what Woodson didn't and that's win the buy games by enough margin that it helps with metrics. Yes, IU only has one quad win, but they entered Tuesday 35th in NET rankings. They need to split (at least) this road trip and win out at home (doable) and see where the chips fall.
Just checked bracketology on ESPN and as of right now they have us as the last team in. I have a hard time seeing it. Tough schedule coming up and the team really needs to build on the Purdue win to beat some teams we probably didn't expect to beat going into the season. We've looked so bad against teams like Michigan, Louisville, Iowa, etc... I don't know if the committee looks at that- we were not remotely competitive in those games. With 4 tough road games still left (plus @OSU), we need to steal at least 1 of them and hold home court, including the MSU game.
That choke job against Nebraska is a real killer right now. That would have been a huge win. I know Nebraska is a really good team, but to blow that lead in the 2nd half, at home... can't do that.
Sitting her today and projecting out our record for the rest of the year, I don't think we'll get in. Feels likely that we'll go 4-6 down the stretch- lose all 5 roadies and drop the home game to MSU. That's 18-13 heading into the BTT. Won't be good enough. But, we have a chance to play ourselves into the dance by continuing to play like we did against Purdue and in the 1st half against Nebraska. I just don't think it'll happen.
SI.com has us as one of the last 4 out, but that was last updated before the Purdue game, so who knows. I saw something the other day, also before the Purdue game, forget which site, that didn't have us on either the last 4 out or the next 4 out. We were nowhere to be found... so who knows!
I am shocked with only one actual good win to be on the bubble. The bubble must be as weak as it has ever been. I dont not see anyway this team wins at Illinois or Purdue. Probably need to win at UCLA and beat Michigan State at home bare minimum. The problem is this team usually can only put one good half of play in vs the better teams. On the road that will not cut it.
People look at this too much in a vacuum. If you were to fill out a bracket like the committee does based on today you'd find it hard to definitively rank a bunch of teams ahead of IU outside of the top 20. Most only have 1-3 Q1 wins as well and some have Q3 losses which we don't.
Projecting out to the end of the year doesn't really matter if we're talking today.
The resume isn't 'great' by any means but its not bad. No bad losses (Minn is Q2), we've pounded most of the Q3/Q4 we did play. Only 1 Q1 for now, but we'll add a couple by the end of the year.
@arioznahoosier4554 CDD did what Woodson didn't and that's win the buy games by enough margin that it helps with metrics. Yes, IU only has one quad win, but they entered Tuesday 35th in NET rankings. They need to split (at least) this road trip and win out at home (doable) and see where the chips fall.
I don't really look at any of that I do not have time. If they do barely get in just please do not say " I did my job" like woodson did. That is all I ask.
@arioznahoosier4554 what were your expectations heading into the season? I’m just curious. I’m not a shut up and cheer guy either, but if they make the NCAA tournament it’s a successful season given my expectations of the team going into the year.
I think this is where there's a disconnect among fans, at least regarding this season. You'd consider '25-'26 a success if the Hoosiers went dancing, which is a completely understandable expectation. That obviously wouldn't be a bad thing, but a 10-seed and one and done is 'meh' at best-- for me--given IU's resources. I don't expect Cig-like results or anything of the sort, but a top third finish in the B1G and the potential to make an NCAAT run is what I'd consider a successful season. I just don't see this team doing either.What were your expectations heading into the season?
Moreover, I don't really buy into the 'brand new team' nonsense. Most major P4 programs have an overhauled roster to some degree, so it's not unchartered territory. You CAN win right away.
As for DK's potential to win big at IU, many people have a 'wait and see' approach. Totally valid. I, for one, don't think he has the goods. Better than Archie and Woody? Absolutely. 'The guy?' No ... imo. That said, I don't think he's going to flame out at IU like the previous two clowns did, but I don't see the Hoosiers getting anywhere near the promised land with Knob.
Lastly, I think those who ask, 'What program-changing coach is out there?' have a point. Perhaps DK is the best IU could do. Stevens was never coming. May was already at Michigan. McCollum chose a better situation for him, etc. But ... you can't tell me Beard wouldn't have jumped at the chance. I don't think he's a basketball genius like some do--and I was very much opposed to him during the search--but I'd feel much better about the program's future if he were in Bloomington instead of Oxford.
I think this is where there's a disconnect among fans, at least regarding this season. You'd consider '25-'26 a success if the Hoosiers went dancing, which is a completely understandable expectation. That obviously wouldn't be a bad thing, but a 10-seed and one and done is 'meh' at best-- for me--given IU's resources. I don't expect Cig-like results or anything of the sort, but a top third finish in the B1G and the potential to make an NCAAT run is what I'd consider a successful season. I just don't see this team doing either.What were your expectations heading into the season?
Moreover, I don't really buy into the 'brand new team' nonsense. Most major P4 programs have an overhauled roster to some degree, so it's not unchartered territory. You CAN win right away.
As for DK's potential to win big at IU, many people have a 'wait and see' approach. Totally valid. I, for one, don't think he has the goods. Better than Archie and Woody? Absolutely. 'The guy?' No ... imo. That said, I don't think he's going to flame out at IU like the previous two clowns did, but I don't see the Hoosiers getting anywhere near the promised land with Knob.
Lastly, I think those who ask, 'What program-changing coach is out there?' have a point. Perhaps DK is the best IU could do. Stevens was never coming. May was already at Michigan. McCollum chose a better situation for him, etc. But ... you can't tell me Beard wouldn't have jumped at the chance. I don't think he's a basketball genius like some do--and I was very much opposed to him during the search--but I'd feel much better about the program's future if he were in Bloomington instead of Oxford.
nail on the head.
it's where we are and where we want to go is the disconnect. Why are we looking at a possible one and done in tourney as a success. Is it an improvement over Bigfoot sure but to those of like gthomas and myself it's not good enough. And it's not much more that woody and Archie to be honest so where's this ship going this time. I feel like in in an episode of the twilight zone. I too dont think this guy has the chops so then why bother with him
@hoosiers94 Yeah, the 'better than' game is dangerous. IU played that game with Archie and lost; Crean would coach circles around him. And, of course, IU played that game with Woody and lost; he and his Bigfoot Brigade were worse than Archie.
If you have a 'better than Woody' mindset, your expectations have already been met. But, in my world, replacing one turd in the bowl with another won't necessarily make the toilet flush any easier.
I understand all your points. They’re valid. I guess my expectations were lower due to recent history, the hire, the roster etc.
like one of you said it’s a stepping stone. There’s still a month left, there’s plenty of basketball to play to determine one way or another if the season is a step in the right direction
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