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Tourney Chances After Back-to-Back Wins

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dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Famed Member

If we win tonight (big if), is Saturday a play-in game?  I don't see how they could put OSU in over us if we beat them.  We'd have I believe 4 quad 1 wins to their 1.


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Posted : 03/04/2026 2:06 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier
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If we win tonight (big if), is Saturday a play-in game?  I don't see how they could put OSU in over us if we beat them.  We'd have I believe 4 quad 1 wins to their 1.

The numbers aren't earth-shattering, but OSU is nearly a lock if they beat PSU tonight. If, however, OSU loses and IU beats Minnesota, then it could very well be a de facto play-in game.

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 2:34 pm
OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Famed Member

Posted by: @hoosiers94
↑

It wouldnt work they know a phony when they see one 

Other conferences seem to game the system just fine. 

Oh wait, their guy leaves the room when they are discussing his teams. Which surely takes care of the bias.

I hate the smoke filled room BS where they make up new reasons each year that usually contradict the previous year reasons. Football is the same, probably worse.

But I was joking around. (Send something better than cigars.)

 

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 5:23 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @jj_mcclure
↑

I think the knowledgeable fans understand that this dead cat bounce isn’t really something to get excited about right now.

You called it ... five weeks ago, no less.


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Posted : 03/04/2026 6:35 pm
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jj_mcClure
(@jj_mcclure)
Reputable Member

@gthomas True, but I also take no pleasure in it, despite what certain posters on here want to claim.  If I did, I’d be on here constantly dancing a jig and saying I told you so.  I’d have loved nothing more than to be completely wrong, but I have to call it as I see it.  


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Posted : 03/04/2026 7:16 pm
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @jj_mcclure
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@gthomas True, but I also take no pleasure in it, despite what certain posters on here want to claim.  If I did, I’d be on here constantly dancing a jig and saying I told you so.  I’d have loved nothing more than to be completely wrong, but I have to call it as I see it.  

I've been called a "hater" plenty of times. I, like you, don't sugarcoat things ... but I want IU to win. Big difference between being critical and being a "hater" (though I realize I'm more critical than most).

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 7:23 pm
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

Posted by: @gthomas
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Posted by: @jj_mcclure
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@gthomas True, but I also take no pleasure in it, despite what certain posters on here want to claim.  If I did, I’d be on here constantly dancing a jig and saying I told you so.  I’d have loved nothing more than to be completely wrong, but I have to call it as I see it.  

I've been called a "hater" plenty of times. I, like you, don't sugarcoat things ... but I want IU to win. Big difference between being critical and being a "hater" (though I realize I'm more critical than most).

 

 

same here... when I see a turd I call it as such. I don't have time for BS 

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 8:55 pm
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BigMike's avatar
(@bigmike)
Prominent Member

Beat OSU and win 2 in the Big 10 tourney and IU likely makes the NCAA tournament. The Hoosiers will need to play their best ball of the season to make this happen. Best Big 10 standings finish for IU is a tie for 9th with Iowa if the Hawks lose one of their 2 remaining. IU will be a #10 seed in the Big 10 tourney as they lost to Iowa in the regular season and play either Northwestern, Oregon or Maryland in game one.


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Posted : 03/05/2026 8:53 am
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @bigmike
↑

Beat OSU and win 2 in the Big 10 tourney and IU likely makes the NCAA tournament.

Can't argue with your assessment. A victory against OSU and only one BTT win could do it, but a 1st Round W against the likes of Oregon or Maryland might not do much for the résumé. Perhaps we should be rooting for a matchup with NW. If IU could pound them, it will make make the previous meeting look fluke-ish.


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Posted : 03/05/2026 10:28 am
surjay
(@surjay)
Honorable Member

Metrics moved a little bit.

37 NET

41 KP

28 Torvik (large jump here)

48 WAB

 

The size of the loss bumped Minn. to a Q3 win, but only by 1 spot. They'll likely move back to Q2.

Marquette with a couple recent wins (and mostly just SoS) has moved back to a Q2 win, as well.  Wisky 1 spot from Q1 now.

AFA first round match-ups, NW rematch would have the most clout as another Q2 neutral win. Oregon is on the cusp of Q2 neutral. Maryland has no chance to move beyond Q3 which won't be too helpful.


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Posted : 03/05/2026 10:41 am
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

@surjay It makes sense, but I still find it odd when a win actually bumps an opponent to a lesser Quad or a loss bumps them up. 

"Hey, we beat Minnesota. But in doing so, the win became less impressive." Weird. I get it, but weird. 


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Posted : 03/05/2026 11:10 am
TR32's avatar
 TR32
(@tr32)
Reputable Member

In the last 30 years, Indiana is 4-10 in final Big Ten games played on the road.  That's 29%.  If you factor in playing potential tourney teams, I imagine its even lower.

So here's the deal, 5 seconds to go, Tayton Connerway (27.5% from deep) with the ball at the top.  Full fledged Jmmy Chitwood, Connerway pulls up for 3, for a chance to send IU to....10-10 and still 10th in the Big Ten.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that games like TCU @TTU might factor into whether the Big Ten can get 10 teams in.  TCU won that game.  What about Miami? Are they still winning? (currently up 4pts with 8min to go-good, no bid thief there).  Clearly, IU has to win to be one of those 10 teams, right?

Well then, back to Connerway, the senior, DeVries and Wilkerson are doubled, so its Tayton for 3 at the buzzer for a tourney chance.  Does it go in?

I say chances are.... just a tick under 30%.


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Posted : 03/06/2026 11:56 pm
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

Posted by: @tr32
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In the last 30 years, Indiana is 4-10 in final Big Ten games played on the road.  That's 29%.  If you factor in playing potential tourney teams, I imagine its even lower.

So here's the deal, 5 seconds to go, Tayton Connerway (27.5% from deep) with the ball at the top.  Full fledged Jmmy Chitwood, Connerway pulls up for 3, for a chance to send IU to....10-10 and still 10th in the Big Ten.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that games like TCU @TTU might factor into whether the Big Ten can get 10 teams in.  TCU won that game.  What about Miami? Are they still winning? (currently up 4pts with 8min to go-good, no bid thief there).  Clearly, IU has to win to be one of those 10 teams, right?

Well then, back to Connerway, the senior, DeVries and Wilkerson are doubled, so its Tayton for 3 at the buzzer for a tourney chance.  Does it go in?

I say chances are.... just a tick under 30%.

10% at best. And I'd have the ball in Wilkersons hand if it were me. If Connerway says to me "I'll make it" I'd laugh.  If Lamar said it ... I'm in 

 


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Posted : 03/07/2026 11:57 am
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OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Famed Member

Wilkerson! We are going to use you as a decoy! Connerway is going to take the last shot!

Nobody breaks the huddle...

But, if TD and Wilkerson are covered, Connerway (or Enright) ... Today it goes in!

 


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Posted : 03/07/2026 12:30 pm
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TR32's avatar
 TR32
(@tr32)
Reputable Member

Love the enthusiasm.  But I hate to break it to you coach, the town has voted, and Tayton has to play and have the ball. (or else we dont get those 27% numbers we need)

How bout you pick- Tayton, Kanaan Carlile, or Justin Smith, for 3 at the buzzer to send the Hoosiers to Dayton on Bruce Thornton Day?


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Posted : 03/07/2026 1:19 pm
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