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Tourney Chances After Back-to-Back Wins

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ams66's avatar
(@ams66)
Prominent Member

@jhoban19 Yes I'm expecting we lose the next two, though with it being Senior Night we might muster enough willpower to beat Minny. I don't know how much that really means anymore though, with Seniors who haven't even been on campus one year.


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Posted : 03/02/2026 2:34 pm
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Robert Olson's avatar
(@arioznahoosier4554)
Noble Member

Posted by: @jhoban19

@arioznahoosier4554 You might still end up being right.  The way we're playing right now, would not surprise me one bit if we lost to Minnesota at home. And I fully expect us to lose in Columbus.

I am not sure who Minnesota still has out but they have had starters out every single game and are still 7-11. If they had been fully healthy I could see them being 11-7 right now.  But yes a game we could lose. 

 


This post was modified 4 months ago by Robert Olson
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Posted : 03/02/2026 2:45 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @arioznahoosier4554

Posted by: @jhoban19

@arioznahoosier4554 You might still end up being right.  The way we're playing right now, would not surprise me one bit if we lost to Minnesota at home. And I fully expect us to lose in Columbus.

I am not sure who Minnesota still has out but they have had starters out every single game and are still 7-11. If they had been fully healthy I could see them being 11-7 right now.  But yes a game we could lose. 

 

Medved is doing a nice job with what he has. If I were a Minnesota fan, I'd be excited about the future.

 


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Posted : 03/02/2026 3:20 pm
IUNorth
(@iunorth)
Noble Member

If we win our last 2 games, we'll likely get an at large bid.

If we lose either of them, but win a game or two in the BTT, I could see us getting a bid.

Lose both and we're done.  Lose 1, and the first BTT game, and we're done.

So basically, I'm thinking, and it seems many bracketologists are agreeing, that if IU wins 2 + games total... they'll have a good chance at getting in.  

I would be surprised if we don't beat Minny.  And wouldn't be shocked if we beat OSU, as well.  But they're really not a great matchup, and the game will mean just as much to them, as us.  So it would surprise me.  


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Posted : 03/02/2026 4:20 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @iunorth

If we win our last 2 games, we'll likely get an at large bid.

If we lose either of them, but win a game or two in the BTT, I could see us getting a bid.

Lose both and we're done.  Lose 1, and the first BTT game, and we're done.

So basically, I'm thinking, and it seems many bracketologists are agreeing, that if IU wins 2 + games total... they'll have a good chance at getting in.  

I would be surprised if we don't beat Minny.  And wouldn't be shocked if we beat OSU, as well.  But they're really not a great matchup, and the game will mean just as much to them, as us.  So it would surprise me.  

You think 9-11 + 1 BTT would be enough? I'm not saying you'll be wrong, but I think it would be a VERY tough sell. That would leave IU at 19-14 (if they lost their second BTT game). 

Note: I pay little attention to bracketologists. Even if there are written guidelines for the NCAAT Committee, guys like Lunardi don't know what they'll value, especially as it relates to Bubble teams; it seems to be a moving goalpost. If, for example, they give decent weight to recent performances, that wouldn't be good for IU. If they focus heavily on Q1 wins, that wouldn't be good either. IU was in good shape in the "bad losses" category, but then NW happened. 


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Posted : 03/02/2026 6:17 pm
surjay
(@surjay)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @gthomas

Posted by: @iunorth

If we win our last 2 games, we'll likely get an at large bid.

If we lose either of them, but win a game or two in the BTT, I could see us getting a bid.

Lose both and we're done.  Lose 1, and the first BTT game, and we're done.

So basically, I'm thinking, and it seems many bracketologists are agreeing, that if IU wins 2 + games total... they'll have a good chance at getting in.  

I would be surprised if we don't beat Minny.  And wouldn't be shocked if we beat OSU, as well.  But they're really not a great matchup, and the game will mean just as much to them, as us.  So it would surprise me.  

You think 9-11 + 1 BTT would be enough? I'm not saying you'll be wrong, but I think it would be a VERY tough sell. That would leave IU at 19-14 (if they lost their second BTT game). 

Note: I pay little attention to bracketologists. Even if there are written guidelines for the NCAAT Committee, guys like Lunardi don't know what they'll value, especially as it relates to Bubble teams; it seems to be a moving goalpost. If, for example, they give decent weight to recent performances, that wouldn't be good for IU. If they focus heavily on Q1 wins, that wouldn't be good either. IU was in good shape in the "bad losses" category, but then NW happened. 

Its tricky because the teams that need to replace IU aren't doing much to stand out.

NW loss stunk but it was a Q2, so its not really all that bad. I mean, they're 50/60 places higher in the NET currently than PSU/Maryland, etc who Iowa lost to. I've said this all year, but the B1G gets a good boost down the stretch as SoS continues to rise and a lot of the bottom feeders continue to slowly climb upwards metric wise.

 


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Posted : 03/02/2026 11:07 pm
OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Famed Member

Dolson needs to get some great cigars and pass them out to the boys in the smokey room early. Just in case we win another couple of games.

Should just be a published computerized system. So what if it gets gamed. Still better than a committee and politics.


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Posted : 03/03/2026 9:08 am
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

Posted by: @openwheel

Dolson needs to get some great cigars and pass them out to the boys in the smokey room early. Just in case we win another couple of games.

Should just be a published computerized system. So what if it gets gamed. Still better than a committee and politics.


GIF

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 12:41 pm
OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Famed Member

@hoosiers94 

I don't get it.

I said schmooze the committee, because half of it is stupid politics. Not all about which teams deserve in.

,


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Posted : 03/04/2026 12:43 pm
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

Posted by: @openwheel

@hoosiers94 

I don't get it.

I said schmooze the committee, because half of it is stupid politics. Not all about which teams 

 

 

 

honestly having fun

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 12:45 pm
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

It wouldnt work they know a phony when they see one 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 12:46 pm
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

There are no must-win games until the BTT. Technically.


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Posted : 03/04/2026 1:52 pm
ams66's avatar
(@ams66)
Prominent Member

It wasn't too long ago that people insisted the committee doesn't consider conference tournament games at all (except for the ultimate champion of course).


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Posted : 03/04/2026 1:59 pm
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surjay
(@surjay)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @ams66

It wasn't too long ago that people insisted the committee doesn't consider conference tournament games at all (except for the ultimate champion of course).

They don't in a vacuum. IE they don't care if some team makes a quarterfinal or semifinal. What they care about is who you beat and who you lost to and the metrics, which multiple neutral court games in a row can significantly impact. They'll nearly all be Q2 or higher games. That can make a big difference.

Its exactly how King Bigfoot made the tournament year 1. He picked up 2 Q1 wins in the BIGT. That moved the metrics up and earned a bid. It didn't have anything to do with advancing in the tourney in general.

 


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Posted : 03/04/2026 2:01 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

@arioznahoosier4554 Nine bids looks like the most logical outcome as it stands.


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Posted : 03/04/2026 2:03 pm
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