Inside the Numbers: Old Oaken Bucket Game

Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)

Each game week, we will take a further look into the stats to preview Indiana’s upcoming matchup. Coming off a surprising rivalry trophy win last week at Michigan State, hardware will once again be on the line this week as the Hoosiers welcome the Purdue Boilermakers to town to battle it out for the Old Oaken Bucket.

“Obviously, this week is a tremendous challenge and opportunity to play the Boilermakers here at home for the Old Oaken Bucket,” said Tom Allen. “Just unbelievable passion for this game from our fan base and from our team and our players.”

Let’s take a look at the stats that could come into play in this week’s matchup.

29.47

Jaylin Lucas was a bit of an under-the-radar recruit in last year’s class. After originally committing to Tulane, Tom Allen and his staff were able to flip his commitment and just two days later he signed his letter of intent. Bigger schools steered clear, fearing that his size would not translate to the next level. Schools have to be filled with regret now. After returning his second kickoff for a touchdown last weekend (more than anyone in the nation), Lucas now is 2nd nationally in average return yards at 29.47.

“I always been called small my whole life,” said Lucas. “I really don’t care. I’m just gonna put my pedal to the medal – make them feel me every time I get the ball in my hands. I’m gonna tell you right now, I haven’t really ran full speed yet. I’m not even at my top speed right now.”

103

Last week’s game proved that Indiana does have the ability to win a conference game in very different fashions. For the first half of the season, you would have likely described Indiana’s offensive attack as closely resembling the air raid; Connor Bazelak led the nation in attempts per game and the rushing attack of the Hoosiers was marginal at best. If you look back at the Illinois win in week 1, the Hoosiers compiled 362 total yards of offense; 330 of them came through the air.

Since then, Dexter Williams II has taken over as the starter. And to Walt Bell’s credit, he has transformed the offensive attack to fit his new leader of the offense. An Indiana offense that still ranks 11th nationally in pass attempts per game did not attempt a pass until the third offensive drive of the game last week against Michigan State. The Hoosiers totaled 288 yards of total offense; just 31 of those were through the air, as Williams finished the game having completed just 2 of his 7 pass attempts.

So, can we expect a similar result this weekend? Well, we should expect a similar gameplan. Despite Purdue ranking 27th nationally in rush yards allowed per game, the advanced metrics over at Pro Football Focus do not look on the Boilermakers rush defense favorably. It currently ranks 103rd nationally (MSU’s rush defense ranks 89th). In three of their last four matchups, Purdue has allowed the leading rusher to go over 100 yards – the lone exception was Chase Brown of Illinois, who managed just 98 (with 2 touchdowns). Expect a heavy rushing attack – both by the Indiana running backs, and Dexter Williams – in the Hoosier offensive attack this weekend.

93.33

One of the stats I like to look at the most when evaluating an offense is their red zone conversion percentage; how many trips the offense has scored in the red zone divided by the total number of trips they have been in the red zone. Purdue is one of the best in the nation, currently ranking 6th nationally having scored on 42 of their 45 (93.33%) of their possessions. Even when you look just at red zone touchdown percentage, they still rank 20th nationally (71.11%).

“One of the best quarterbacks in the country,” said Allen. “So, when you have that, you've got a chance to be really, really good. You've got a receiver who's got 93 catches over a thousand yards. He's impressive. Really good tight end. And Coach Brohm does a great job. Their kids play really, really hard and they're always well prepared and they have a lot of talent. So, a really good football team.”

The Indiana defense has often relied on a bend-don’t-break mentality this season, and they will need to continue that trend this weekend against a high-powered Purdue offense.