Inside the Numbers: Indiana vs. Western Kentucky

Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)

Each game week, we will take a further look into the stats to preview Indiana’s upcoming matchup. This week, Indiana takes on the air-raid offense of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers out of Conference USA. This will be the second of the Hoosiers’ three non-conference foes and the fifth all-time meeting between the two schools. Indiana pulled out last season’s late September matchup on the road, 33-31.

42.86% and 57.14%

As one can see from last year’s matchup, Indiana needed just about every point they scored in order to escape Bowling Green, Kentucky victorious. Western Kentucky has not faced a team with the talent of the Hoosiers yet this season, but with the offensive firepower they have shown so far, it is possible Indiana will need similar production in this year’s matchup.

To do this, Indiana will need to do a better job of scoring in the redzone. Through two games, Indiana has entered the redzone 7 times: just 3 of these trips have resulted in touchdowns (42.86%) and only 4 have resulted in scores (57.14%). This ranks 115th and 125th, respectively, across 131 FBS schools. The Hoosiers were fortunate last season to win while kicking 5 field goals; better efficiency on scoring opportunities this year could make this a much more comfortable afternoon.

Six vs Zero

Head Coach of the Hilltoppers Tyson Helton talked at this week’s meeting with the media about his offensive line. Through two games, Western Kentucky is one of just ten FBS schools to have allowed zero sacks. On the other hand, Indiana ranks in the top twenty through two games in sacks with six.

“They can rush four and get to the quarterback,” said Helton. “They don't have to bring pressure. And when they do bring pressure, they do a nice job disguising the blitzes to match the protection scheme. They scheme you up pretty good. Their front four is doing a pretty good job, and if you can get home with just your front four, it helps you in coverage. That's going to be a big challenge for our offensive line this week…Our guys have done a nice job the first two games, but this will be a real test for our offensive line for sure."

Time of Possession

The cliché football saying would indicate that the team with the higher time of possession would ultimately win the game; that may not be true in this matchup. Both offenses are built around speed and care little about their time of possession. Out of the 131 FBS schools, Western Kentucky ranks 115th in average time of possession (26:33/game) and Indiana ranks 127th (22:45/game).

While possessing the ball is typically an indicator of success, both offenses pride themselves on scoring quickly. It will be interesting to see how both teams factor in the momentum of a game in their play calling. While scoring quickly can damper the opponent’s defense’s mood, a quick 3-and-out is equally demoralizing for the team’s offense.