Inside the Numbers: Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini

By David Sugarman (@David_Sugarman2)

Break out all the cliches because for a change they’re all necessary. Indiana’s backs are against the wall and each game going forward is do or die if Indiana wants to go to a bowl game for the third straight year. That journey starts on Saturday when they take on Illinois. Now it’s time to for this week’s dive into the stats for Inside the Numbers.

0-6 - On the surface this is simply a matchup with the only two teams in the Big Ten without a conference win. Although if you dig a little deeper you’ll find that while Indiana has lost to five ranked opponents, two by just one possession, Illinois has played just one ranked opponent in the Big Ten and lost to them by two touchdowns. They’ve also lost by double digits to Purdue, Rutgers and Nebraska. Don’t simply trust the records, these two teams paths to 0-6 in conference play couldn’t be any more different.

4th - Indiana trailed by just one touchdown headed into the fourth quarter against Wisconsin and led both at Michigan State and Maryland headed into the final frame, but lost all three of those games. The fourth quarter woes reared their ugly ahead against the Badgers with Wisconsin outscoring Indiana 21-0. Overall through the last three games Indiana has been outscored by their opponents 49-9 in the fourth quarter. Indiana is now in desperation mode and needs to learn how to close games otherwise they’ll be home all bowl season.

200 - Many people have thrown in the towel on Indiana’s rushing game and rightfully so as they are last in the Big Ten after mustering up a measly 40 rushing yards against Wisconsin. But if there was a game to flip the script it would be against Illinois. The Illini surrender over 200 yards a game and allowed Purdue to follow that trend with 209 yards on the ground in a 19-point loss to the Boilermakers. It doesn’t matter if it’s Richard Lagow or Peyton Ramsey at quarterback going forward, Indiana needs any kind of run support they could get and need to take advantage of a terrible Illinois rushing defense.

3+ - While the rushing game point is looking to strengthen an IU weakness, this goes in the opposite direction. Indiana has had three or more sacks in six games this season and this compliments nicely that Illinois has given up the most sacks in the Big Ten this year at 28, just over three per game. Illinois QB situation has been a mess the entire season and whoever is back there, Indiana should be able to put pressure on them against this poor offensive line.

1st - Indiana has done a good job of getting out to hot starts this year. They’ve led at the end of the first quarter in six of their nine games. Illinois on the other hand has only led once all season after the first quarter and they haven’t at all in their seven game losing streak. Illinois is quite possibly the worst team in the Big Ten and while Indiana has given away many of their leads, if they can get out in front of Illinois, the Illini will likely have trouble mounting any sort of comeback. In a game IU needs more than they’ve ever needed a game this season, putting away someone early would be a very welcome change of pace for Hoosier fans.