Inside the Numbers: Indiana Hoosiers at Cincinnati Bearcats

Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)

Each game week, we will take a further look into the stats to preview Indiana’s upcoming matchup. This week the Hoosiers (3-0) take the show on the road for the first time this season as they will face the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) at Nippert Stadium, the fifth-oldest stadium in college football. Indiana will have an uphill battle for this one; the Bearcats boast a 28-game win streak at home and won last year’s matchup at Memorial Stadium on their way to the College Football Playoff.

84.7 and -2

If Indiana is going to leave Cincinnati victorious, a key to victory will be taking advantage of the Bearcats’ mistakes. We spoke with JT Smith of The Front Office News earlier this week, and he explained to us that when Cincinnati struggles, they often have only themselves to blame. The numbers back this up; Cincinnati ranks 128th in the nation in turnover yardage per game (84.7) and 98th in the nation in turnover margin (-2). In a couple of the Bearcats games, they have gotten off to slow starts and have had to dig themselves out of deficits on the scoreboard. If Indiana can capitalize on Cincinnati’s mistakes, they will have a much greater change of remaining undefeated.

97.3

The addition of D3 transfer Cam Camper over the offseason was originally thought of as a solid depth piece pickup for the Hoosiers, but the narrative has quickly changed. He has certainly been aided by DJ Matthews’ ability to pop off an explosive play, but so far it has been clear that Camper has actually established himself as Connor Bazelak’s number one target. In fact, Camper now ranks 22nd in the nation in receiving yards per game across all FBS receivers at 97.3 yards per game. This puts him just one spot behind USC’s Jordan Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner for college football’s most outstanding receiver. Camper ranks 14th in the nation in receptions (23) and 25th nationally in yards (292).

Bazelak has struggled at times with accuracy, and the Indiana offense has suffered because of it. If Camper can remain a reliable target as he’s shown, that should help to settle down an Indiana offense that will be operating in its first hostile environment of the year.

58

A game can often come down to who has the most explosive offensive plays, and the Indiana defense will be going up against a Cincinnati team that has proven it is capable of chunk yardage. Through their three games, the Bearcats have 58 plays of 10+ yards, good enough to rank 12th in the nation. Plays like this can demoralize a defense and leave a defensive coordinator scrambling for answers. The Indiana secondary will need to be stout and the rush defense cannot be gashed like it was last week against Western Kentucky.

While plays of 10+ yards can signal offensive prowess, I must add that the numbers can somewhat be deceiving; surprisingly, the Nebraska Cornhuskers currently lead the nation in plays of 10+ yards. They have played one more game than most FBS teams, but still ironic considering the Cornhuskers are already on their second head coach this season.