Hoosier Huddle's Game Day Primer: Indiana Hoosiers at Cincinnati Bearcats
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Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
What: Indiana Hoosiers (3-0) at Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1)
When: Saturday, September 24 at 3:30 on ESPN2
Where: Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on the ESPN2 and can be heard on the IU Radio Network.
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Series History: Indiana and Cincinnati have played each other 15 times but the series was dormant for 21 seasons until last season’s matchup in Bloomington. IU won four of the first five meetings before the Bearcats won in 1946 and 1957. The Hoosiers won in 1962 and 1963 under Phil Dickens and the two sides did not meet until 1994 with Bill Mallory’s squad winning 28-3. IU won in blowout fashion in 1998 and 2000 as well during some of the darkest times of the UC program. Things are quite different for the Bearcats now and they won a hotly contested game in Bloomington last season by a score of 38-24. The game flipped on a controversial targeting call that ejected IU’s Micah McFadden. Cincinnati went on to a College Football Playoff berth while IU capitulated to a miserable 2-10 campaign.
What’s at Stake: The season can be broken up into “quarters” and the first quarter for the Hoosiers is complete. While it was not always pretty, Indiana went 3-0 and has themselves positioned as well as they possibly could have heading into this matchup. IU is halfway to bowl eligibility and needs to find a way to three more victories to return to the postseason. They will enter Nippert Stadium as significant underdogs with the line opening with Cincinnati being favored by 17.5 points. The Bearcats are in their last season in the American Athletic Conference and need this win to move to 3-1 after a season-opening defeat at Arkansas. A ten-win season is still very much in the cards for the Bearcats and beating IU would keep them on track to keep the program’s momentum as they churn towards Big 12 membership.
A FEW THINGS TO LOOK FOR
1. Vulnerability on Defense
With Tom Allen returning to playcalling duties, a lot of returning personnel and some impact transfers added, the IU defense is expected to a strength for this IU squad. While they have played mostly well, Tom Allen would be the first to tell you that it is still a work in progress. Perhaps most concerning thus far is the run defense. Chase Brown ran for 199 yards on 36 carries with Illinois ultimately averaging four yards per carry. That was not a bad performance but the Hoosiers were gashed at times. In week two, the Idaho Vandals were held to 2.9 yards per carry on 44 attempts. That can be classified as a success. Last week, against a unique and high-powered Western Kentucky attack, was a different story. The Hilltoppers ran the ball 36 times for 216 yards. That is an average of six yards per carry. Part of that can be attributed to Indiana focusing so much on slowing down on the quick passing game of WKU but allowing anything close to that against Cincinnati will not cut it. The Bearcats feature a more balanced attack and are very physical upfront. Charles McClelland is the primary back, averaging 6.39 yards per carry on 33 attempts. Corey Kiner and Myles Montgomery will also see action and both are very capable. In total, the Bearcats are averaging just less than five yards per carry and IU will need to do a much better of tackling and penetrating the opposing backfield to force UC into some third down and long situations.
2. Red Zone Offense
Through three games, it is fair to say the 2022 Indiana offense is a major improvement on the 2021 attack. IU is averaging 30.3 points a game and has gone up against a good Illinois defense and improved units in Idaho and Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are running the ball okay, averaging 4.03 yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns and Connor Bazelak has thrown for 891 yards. In short, the offense is averaging 5.5 yards per play which is up from 4.25 a season ago. That does not mean the offense can be classified as “great”. At least not yet. The offensive line looks better but leaves a bit to be desired (particularly in run blocking) and Connor Bazelak has struggled a bit with consistency in the accuracy of his passes. The largest thing holding back the IU offense at this point though is undoubtedly the red zone efficiency. Indiana is only 10 of 14 in the red zone, only a 71.43% success rate. If we expand this to be “scoring chances”, which would be classified as having the ball inside the opponent’s 35-yard line, things look even less stellar. Against Illinois, IU was inside the Illini 35-yard line on five occasions and scored two touchdowns with three field goals. They were 0-3 to begin the game against Idaho (missed field goal, turnover on downs and interception) before scoring five straight touchdowns close out the Vandals. In total, five for eight. The Hoosiers were seven for eight against WKU but four of those scores were field goals. That leaves Indiana with only ten touchdowns on 21 trips inside the opponent 35-yard line. They will need to be much better than that moving forward and it must start on Saturday at Nippert Stadium.
3. Forcing Takeaways
One of the things that can act as a great equalizer in a game with a somewhat significant underdog is turnovers. Tom Allen is a big believer in the power of forcing takeaways and how much of an impact it can have on games. The Hoosiers won the turnover battle against WKU and in a game with razor-thin margins, the interception by Myles Jackson in the end zone which prevented the Hilltoppers from going up by 18 loomed large. Winning the turnover battle (and cashing in on the takeaways for touchdowns) would go a long way towards giving the Hoosiers a chance to spring the upset. On the flipside, if the Hoosiers are careless with the ball and give it to UC a few times, this game could get out of hand.