Hoosier Huddle's Bowl Projections: November 11th, 2018

Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

Every week brings a shifting in the standings and the potential bowl destinations. This article is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Rather, it is an attempt to project how things will finish. This is my best guess at the bowl game assignments for the Big Ten and of course, the Indiana Hoosiers (if there is to be one).

-As of November 11, 2018 -

College Football Playoff Semifinal

Michigan vs. Alabama – Cotton Bowl (original projection: Michigan vs. Alabama)

It is difficult to envision Ohio State beating the Michigan Wolverines after watching the Bucks get blown out in West Lafayette and then struggling with Nebraska. If Michigan goes 11-1, wins the Big Ten Championship game to reach 12-1 and has only a loss to Notre Dame in South Bend (in the opening week of the season) on their resume, they’ll go to the playoff and be selected as the #4 seed. I have Clemson and Notre Dame as the other matchup.

Rose Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Ohio State vs. Washington State (original projection: OSU vs. WSU)

I am now projecting the Buckeyes to go 10-2 and be runner-up in the East division. The Rose Bowl would be thrilled to have the Buckeyes back in Pasadena as the highest ranked non-playoff team in the conference. Their opponent is currently projected as the Washington State Cougars, a team that is having a very impressive campaign and currently sit at 9-1. The fate of the PAC-12 North could very well come down to the Apple Cup on November 23.

Citrus Bowl (B1G vs. ACC or SEC) – Northwestern Wildcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats (original projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky)

-The Citrus Bowl has a contract to take five different teams in six years if at all possible. That means no Michigan or Minnesota. The opponent is to be the top possible ranked team from the SEC or ACC. Northwestern’s win at Iowa means they are the winners of the West. Despite being 6-4 overall, the Wildcats are 6-1 in the conference and have wrapped up their first trip to the conference title game The SEC will be really interesting as I have Alabama sitting at 13-0 and the #1 seed and then Georgia being 11-2 and the SEC East champion and going to the Sugar Bowl. I think LSU could definitely end up being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl or the Peach Bowl. That leaves me with the Kentucky Wildcats, despite their awful loss to Tennessee.

Outback Bowl (B1G vs. SEC) – Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas A&M Aggies (original projection: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M)

-Again, this bowl would prefer to have five different teams in six years if at all possible. That means no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern if possible. I think the Spartans win eight games and they already have the head-to-head edge on Penn State. In addition, they have recently been to the Holiday Bowl and both Wisconsin and PSU have recently been to the Outback Bowl. Texas A&M is having a decent season in Jimbo Fisher’s debut campaign and the SEC field has already been quite picked over.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Washington (original projection: Penn State vs. USC)

-Another bowl that would prefer to have five different teams in six years. So, no Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin or MSU. This would have been a nice landing spot for someone like the 8-4 Wisconsin Badgers but the Holiday Bowl would prefer a new team and Penn State cannot go to the Gator Bowl. That makes this a good spot to slide the Penn State Nittany Lions in. So, how about a rematch of last year’s fun Fiesta Bowl?

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (B1G vs. SEC) – Purdue vs. Mississippi State (original projection: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State)

-No Penn State or Iowa if possible. This is a rotation between the Music City Bowl and the Gator Bowl and the B1G played in Music City in 2016 and 2017 so this year will very likely be the B1G in the Gator Bowl. Purdue was dreadful against Minnesota but they still have a shot at seven victories. The matchup against Wisconsin likely decides the slots for both teams. Mississippi State’s defense against Purdue’s offense would be a fun matchup.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (B1G vs. ACC) – Wisconsin vs. Virginia (original projection: Purdue vs. Virginia)

The Pinstripe Bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years. That means no Iowa, NW, PSU or IU if possible. The Wisconsin Badgers would be bitterly disappointed if their season ended with a trip to New York instead of a New Year’s Six bowl but they are just nowhere near the team many had envisioned them being. The Virginia Cavaliers had a critical trip-up against Pittsburgh making this a landing spot that makes a lot of sense.

Redbox Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Iowa vs. Arizona State (original projection: Northwestern vs. Colorado)

Again, they want five teams in six years so no PU, IU, MD or Nebraska. Iowa’s close losses in the last few weeks have what a I think is a good team dropping in my projections. “Close” doesn’t cut it and they likely end up at 7-5. In short, what could have been a pretty special season is settling into another “better than average” season for Kirk Ferentz in Iowa City. I’m slotting Arizona State into this bowl game as Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils winning close games in his debut season.

Quick Lane Bowl (B1G vs. ACC or Conditional MAC tie-in) – Minnesota vs. Eastern Michigan (original projection: Indiana vs. Eastern Michigan)

The Indiana Hoosiers beat the Maryland Terrapins, likely knocking the Terps from a bowl game. They must beat one of Penn State or Ohio State to reach six victories. Indiana will have to knock off Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket Game to reach six wins. This looks more likely today than it did before Saturday’s games but I am still projecting a Purdue victory there. I think Minnesota finds a way to beat one of Northwestern (now playing for basically nothing after winning the West yesterday) or Wisconsin to reach bowl eligibility. The ACC has a whole lot of bowl tie-ins but the conference is somewhat down this season and I don’t think they’ll fill out their bowl obligations. 

SERVPRO First Responders Bowl (B1G vs. C-USA) – Indiana vs. UAB (original projection: Maryland vs. UAB)

B1G has not played in this bowl since 2014 so they seem likely to be in it this year instead of the Armed Forces Bowl. However, I do not see the Big Ten filling this bowl slot with an eligible team. If a 5-7 team is selected, it could be Minnesota (although I think it must be said, no additional Big Ten squad deserves this slot). In short, I don’t see a Big Ten team being in this game but if the bowl is forced to dip into the five win teams, they would choose between Indiana and Maryland and the Hoosiers beat the Terrapins.