Hoosier Huddle's Bowl Projections After Week 8

Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

CFP team(s) – Michigan vs. Washington

The Michigan Wolverines are completing wrecking teams and their defense looks absolutely dominant. I’ve been projecting them to win the conference (therefore knock off Ohio State in the season-finale) since the preseason and I see no reason to change now. The only potential issue with Michigan’s resume so far: they’ve played one true road game, at Rutgers.

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Ohio State vs. Utah

The Buckeyes suffered a baffling loss at Penn State, a game they had control of but failed to deliver a knockout punch and gave up a few huge plays. The biggest concern for Ohio State appears to be the offensive line, they are struggling to block for Barrett and they are giving up a lot of defensive line penetration when attempting to run the ball. Despite the loss, Ohio State can vault back into the College Football Playoff by winning out.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl – December 31 at 11:00 – Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

The Wisconsin Badgers are 5-2 with close losses to Michigan and Ohio State. I still don’t think they have a great offense but their defense is undeniably stout and their schedule sets up for a strong finish. They host Nebraska in a gigantic game this Saturday night and then head to Northwestern on November 5. I’m projecting they finish 10-2 and then drop their third game to a top five team in the Big Ten Championship Game. As Big Ten West champions, I think they’ll battle the SEC East champs (who I think will also be 10-3) in the Citrus Bowl. As Steve Spurrier once said (miss you HBC!), “you can’t spell Citrus without “UT””. 

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. Florida

Nebraska fans will not necessarily like this projection and it is entirely possible I am underestimating what the Cornhuskers will do the rest of the way. However, despite being 7-0, I am sticking with my pick of sending the Huskers to the Outback Bowl. I believe they will lose their next two games, road battles at Wisconsin and Ohio State and it’s very possible they fall on Black Friday at the Iowa Hawkeyes. Assuming they finish 10-2, I think they’ll fall behind Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin in the pecking order and be right in line with Penn State (more on that in a minute). If Nebraska loses these next two weeks, who will end up as their strongest win: Northwestern? Minnesota? The record would be strong but the resume wouldn’t necessarily be sparkling. The Huskers played in a bowl game in California last season so I’m projecting they get sent to Florida for the Outback Bowl this time around instead of to the Holiday Bowl.

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 - Penn State vs. Washington State

Saturday night’s upset victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes certainly changed the possibilities for the 2016 Penn State season. However, I’m not moving them up in the bowl projections just yet. It’s very possible they finish the season at 10-2. The toughest remaining road game is Indiana and the toughest remaining home contest is against Iowa. Penn State could quickly move up the pecking order if Ohio State drops a game against someone besides Michigan or if Wisconsin or Nebraska lose an unexpected game. The projected opponent for this game, the Washington State Cougars, is 4-0 in the PAC-12 and they could pull off an upset of Washington and find themselves in position for a Rose Bowl bid but for now, I’m projecting this as a strong Holiday Bowl matchup and sending the Nittany Lions to California. It’s a bowl they haven’t played in since 1989 and I imagine they’d have great fan support in San Diego.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 - Minnesota vs. Arkansas

The Golden Gophers are 5-2 (2-2) after an unconvincing win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Minnesota’s remaining schedule is interesting. Their next two games are against Illinois and Purdue so it seems likely they’ll move to 7-2. They then travel to Nebraska and Wisconsin with a home game against Northwestern wedged in between. I’m projecting them to beat Northwestern at home in a true toss-up game and finishing at 8-4. The bowl projection remains as the Music City Bowl in Nashville. 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 - Maryland vs. Pittsburgh

Maryland is now only one win away from bowl eligibility thanks to a victory over Michigan State. The Terrapins could certainly work their way up the pecking order a bowl or two if they can pull off a mild upset (according to Vegas) at IU or a big upset at Nebraska but I think they finish at 6-6 at worst and 7-5 at best and I believe the Pinstripe Bowl in New York would love to have an East Coast matchup of Maryland vs. Pittsburgh. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – Northwestern vs. Colorado (Last week: Iowa vs. USC)

I have changed this matchup to Northwestern vs. Colorado following Iowa’s home loss to Wisconsin and Northwestern’s victory over Indiana. The Wildcats continue to play very well right now and they have a pair of games they’ll be heavily favored in (Purdue and Illinois) two remaining games. Winning those games would put them at six wins and they have a toss-up against Minnesota (that I am projecting as a loss). I’ve bumped them ahead of the Hawkeyes based on their head-to-head victory over Iowa and I’ve moved the 6-2 Colorado Buffaloes ahead of USC. 

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Iowa vs. North Carolina State (Last week: Northwestern vs. NC State)

The Wildcats were moved up, which means the struggling Iowa Hawkeyes were moved down. They’ll definitely go bowling but it’s hard to imagine it will be to a destination much better than the Quick Lane Bowl or the Foster Farms Bowl. The Hawkeyes are 5-3 heading into their bye week. On November 5 they’ll play at Penn State and they will then host Michigan. They also have a game remaining against Nebraska. The only likely “win” remaining is at Illinois. 

Heart of Dallas Bowl – December 27 at Noon – Indiana vs. Western Kentucky

The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-4 and they’ll need wins over Maryland and Rutgers in the next two weeks to remain on these projections. A loss in either game makes the game against Penn State a “must win”. Best case scenario is now 7-5 and that doesn’t appear anywhere close to likely if the offense can’t figure things out this week. The Hilltoppers will probably go 9-3 and face Louisiana Tech in the C-USA title game. The winner of that game will probably choose to play in this game because it is the only C-USA bowl tie-in against a Power Five opponent.

Realistic Potential Bowl Destinations for IU: 

The loss against Northwestern took “8-4” out of the picture for even the most optimistic of IU fans. Even an “A+” game at Michigan Stadium would probably result in a loss. 7-5 is still possible but it seems silly to suggest that Indiana will close the season at 4-1 with the offense playing the way it currently is. If the offense doesn’t figure things out, even going 6-6 will be a quickly busted pipe dream. That being said, I continue to remain optimistic that 6-6 will be the Hoosiers final record and the Heart of Dallas Bowl will be the bowl destination. A loss in the next two weeks would change my mind. A note: there does not appear to be any other Big Ten teams capable of reaching six wins so we may see another five-win squad from the conference going to a bowl game.