Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections: Week 10

Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

As of November 7th, 2016

CFP team(s) – Michigan vs. Clemson

The Michigan Wolverines continued to steamroll their opponents so I see no reason to change my projection of them as Big Ten Champions and a selection of the College Football Playoff committee. While Ohio State will certainly give them all they can handle in the season-finale, I’m giving the Wolverines the edge. Clemson looked outstanding in a 54-0 rout of the Syracuse Orange. It’s hard to envision them dropping any of their remaining three regular season contests. I suppose they could fall to Virginia Tech (or North Carolina) in the ACC title game but that seems far-fetched based on overall talent level. I am guessing Michigan will end up as the #2 seed and the Tigers will end up as the #3 seed. That leaves Alabama as the #1 seed and the Washington Huskies as the #4 seed with Louisville waiting for someone to fall.

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Ohio State vs. Utah

Ohio State looked the best they have at any point this season as they rolled over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in front of a national television audience in primetime. They’ll have their chance on the final day of their regular season against the Michigan Wolverines. The winner will win the Big Ten East and become a front-runner for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The loser will likely head to the Rose Bowl. I’ve projected the Wolverines as the winner of that matchup for the entire season and nothing has changed my mind thus far. The Buckeyes haven’t been to Pasadena for a while so it wouldn’t be bad to see the Scarlet and Grey in the Tournament of Roses. As for their opponent, I’m rather conflicted. I wish there was some kind of provision to allow for a better matchup but it seems highly likely the PAC-12 representative will not be anywhere near the top ten and they’ll have three losses. If Washington loses, this all changes. For now though, the most likely candidates are Colorado and Utah. The Utes are 7-2 (4-2) and they are a good squad. Their remaining games are at Arizona State, versus Oregon and then at Colorado. The Buffaloes were beaten somewhat handily by Michigan in the second week of the season but they have rebounded to have a wonderful season. They are currently 7-2 (5-1) with a game at Arizona and home games against Washington State and Utah. In short, the season-finale contest against Utah may be for the PAC-12 South title. The USC Trojans, playing much better since switching to a new QB, are lurking right behind those two heading into a matchup with the Washington Huskies.

Capital One Orange Bowl – December 30 at 8:00 – Wisconsin vs. Louisville (last week: this slot was designated for the Citrus Bowl)

Texas A&M’s loss to Mississippi State makes things very interesting. The Orange Bowl has an interesting provision: “The Big Ten is chosen to play the ACC if non-champion team is ranked higher than non-champion from Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Notre Dame. The Big Ten forfeits the spot in the Citrus Bowl if chosen for the Orange Bowl”. In short, if the non-champion Big Ten team is ranked higher than the highest-ranking, non-champion SEC team, the Big Ten team will be chosen for the Orange Bowl and no Big Ten will go to the Citrus Bowl. I believe Wisconsin is the third best team in the conference and they should get the nod here. I project them to win the West and then lose to Michigan for a second time in the Big Ten Championship game. That would leave them at 10-3 while Penn State will likely finish at 10-2. The Badgers are currently 8th in the College Football Playoff rankings and they will likely slide up to 7th after Texas A&M’s defeat. Penn State will probably be 9th or 10th this week and they should win their next three games to finish at 10-2. Does a third loss for Wisconsin (to a top five team) drop them below Penn State? I don’t think it should and the Badgers will have the better resume, at least in my opinion. Louisville will be the top-ranked non-playoff team at 11-1 and they’ll be chosen as the ACC representative for the Orange Bowl. 

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. Florida

The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a very bad Saturday night in Columbus. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong suffered a very scary looking injury that left him briefly unconscious and eventually transported to the hospital for further evaluation and testing. They were then dismantled on the field by Ohio State and lost in blowout fashion. The good news is that Tommy Armstrong was able to return to the stadium and it appears he’s going to be just fine. Plus, they now have three very winnable games remaining and a very legitimate chance at finishing 10-2 on the season. They were out West for a bowl game last season so I’m sending them to sunny Florida for the Outback Bowl. Their opponent is going to be an SEC team but it’s pure guesswork to identify which one. It appears the conference’s “#3 team” would typically get selected for this game. I had this as the Florida Gators but they just got hammered by Arkansas and they look likely to have at least four losses by season’s end. For me, it’s a toss-up between Auburn and Texas A&M. The highest-ranked team between the two will go to the Sugar Bowl (because Alabama will be in the playoff) and I think that will be 10-2 Texas A&M. Which leaves a matchup between Nebraska and the 9-3 Auburn Tigers.

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 - Penn State vs. Washington State

Penn State took care of their toughest remaining road test and it seems highly likely they will finish at 10-2 and ranked in the top ten. In most seasons, that would be enough to warrant a slot in a traditional “Big Six” bowl game but the Big Ten has a number of very qualified candidates with great fan bases. Penn State could quickly move up the pecking order if Ohio State drops a game against someone besides Michigan or if Wisconsin or Nebraska lose an unexpected game. The projected opponent for this game, the Washington State Cougars, is now 6-0 in the PAC-12 and they could pull off an upset of Washington and find themselves in position for a Rose Bowl bid but for now, I’m projecting this as a strong Holiday Bowl matchup and sending the Nittany Lions to California to play the 9-3 (7-1) Cougars. It’s a bowl they haven’t played in since 1989 and I imagine they’d have great fan support in San Diego.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 - Minnesota vs. Arkansas

Minnesota picked up their seventh win with a comfortable but entertaining victory over Purdue. They have a very interesting game against Northwestern and then tough contests that will decide the Big Ten West against both Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Gophers are at Nebraska this week and at Wisconsin to close the season so it will be tough sledding to finish better than 8-4. The Music City Bowl remains as the projection because they are clearly behind Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin and a narrow loss to Penn State (plus PSU’s softer finishing slate) puts them behind the Nittany Lions as well. The SEC has at least six bowl games that are all on the same “tier” so it makes projecting their teams mostly guesswork. Tennessee could end up a viable candidate and playing in Nashville would likely be an enticing proposition for the Music City Bowl ticket reps. LSU might make sense as well but they played in this bowl in 2014. Arkansas and Minnesota have played each other in this bowl game before, way back in 2002. The Golden Gophers won 29-14 and kicker Dan Nystrom was named the game’s MVP. The Gophers beat Alabama in this game in 2004 and then lost a year later in 2005 to Virginia. They haven’t been back since so I think a return would be a well-attended and well-received event for Minnesota fans.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 – Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh (last week: Maryland vs. Pittsburgh)

Maryland was thoroughly blasted by the Michigan Wolverines on national TV and they are likely headed for a similar fate this week against Ohio State and then another loss at Nebraska in two weeks. Northwestern is just 4-5 right now but they continue to play pretty well and their wins are better than anything Maryland has. I think they’ll win two of their last three games (at Purdue, at Minnesota and vs. Illinois) to reach bowl-eligibility and a game in New York could be well-received by East Coast Northwestern alums. The opponent will be an ACC team and Pittsburgh will likely end up at 7-5 and third in the Coastal division. Other options include Miami and possibly Wake Forest. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – IU vs. Colorado (last week: Northwestern vs. Colorado)

The Indiana Hoosiers won a sloppy contest over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to keep their bowl hopes alive. They’ll need to win one of the final three games to reach six victories and I think that comes in the season’s final game against Purdue. I’ve moved them ahead of Iowa and Maryland in projections and there are a lot of IU fans out West that would love the chance to see their Hoosiers in a bowl game in Santa Clara. As I wrote earlier, the PAC-12 is a jumbled mess and the South division won’t be decided until the season’s final week. Colorado gets the deciding games at home but I believe Utah is better and Washington State might be as well. The Buffaloes have a really terrific, veteran defense and they’d be a stiff test for whichever Big Ten foe they face. Other options in this slot include Washington State, Arizona State (although it’ll take an upset to get the Sun Devils here), Stanford (not likely) and USC (1968 Rose Bowl rematch! I do NOT want to see this!!!)

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (last week: Iowa vs. North Carolina State)

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-4 with three games left. They still have to play a pair of ranked teams (Michigan and Nebraska) and only Illinois appears to be a likely victory. If they follow the projections, the Hawkeyes will end up at 6-6 and it’s hard to imagine a destination better than this one. North Carolina State needs to win two of their final three games and they’ve been rather inconsistent. I’m knocking them out and sliding the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in. The Ramblin’ Wreck is 5-4 with games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and Georgia remaining. At worst, they’ll be 6-6 and at best they’ll be 7-5.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – December 27 at Noon – Maryland vs. Western Kentucky (last week: Indiana vs. Western Kentucky)

The Maryland Terrapins are now 5-4 (2-4) after getting shellacked by Michigan. They are likely going to need a win over Rutgers in the season-finale to reach bowl eligibility. I believe their running game will win them that final contest but I’ve dropped them below IU and Northwestern in the pecking order. The Hilltoppers are now 6-3 after blowing up the Owls of Florida Atlantic 52-3 and they will probably go 9-3 and face Louisiana Tech in the C-USA title game. The winner of that game will probably choose to play in this game because it is the only C-USA bowl tie-in against a Power Five opponent.

Realistic Potential Bowl Destinations for IU:

IU had to have the last two games and they “took care of business”. It wasn’t pretty and there were plenty of stressful moments but the Hoosiers are now 5-4 and they have three cracks to get victory number six. They host the Penn State Nittany Lions, travel to Michigan and then host Purdue. The first two opponents are ranked in top ten so it seems highly improbable they’ll get either game and Purdue’s offense, plus the stakes of that game, will test IU. If IU shocks the world and gets to 7-5, they could possibly push into the Music City Bowl but I think the Foster Farms Bowl is the top realistic destination for the Hoosiers. The Heart of Dallas Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl remain possibilities.