Hoosier Huddle's 2023 First Round NFL Mock Draft
/
Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)
One of the most exciting sports days of the year is looming; the 2023 NFL Draft kicks off from Kansas City on Thursday at 8 EST. The draft is never easy to predict, and with only 31 first round picks this season (the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering), it should be an easier process! But that is anything but the truth this year, as the draft truly feels like it starts immediately after Bryce Young is sure to be taken with the first pick. The Houston Texans are reportedly not interested in a quarterback at two, the Arizona Cardinals still sit at three while not in the quarterback market, the Aaron Rodgers trade has just gone official as of yesterday, and is CJ Stroud falling or is it all just smokescreen?
Anything could happen, but 31 lives are for sure going to be changed on Thursday night when Roger Goodell takes the stage and announces the future destinations of these players. Just a couple days out from going official, here is how I see the first round playing out*.
*The draft is hard enough to predict already, so I do not mock any trades.
Rd. 1 Pick 1: Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama, 5-10 204 Pounds
It is a foregone conclusion in a draft void of foregone conclusions; Bryce Young is sure to be selected as the first player off the board and the franchise quarterback for new head coach Frank Reich and the Carolina Panthers. The only question mark is the lack of size, which will be new for Reich after coaching taller guys like Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers. But the humble, intelligent, cool-under-pressure Bryce Young is sure to be a fit for what Reich hopes to establish in Carolina. There’s a reason why the Panthers traded up to No.1, and it is to find their uber-accurate future signal caller.
Rd. 1 Pick 2: Houston Texans – Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech, 6-6 271 Pounds
For months we heard it was Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, whichever was not picked first. But as of late, there is too much smoke to ignore the rumors that the Texans are not interested in any of the remaining quarterbacks at 2. DeMeco Ryans comes from the 49ers, where it has been proven you do not have to have the best quarterback to be an elite team (Brock Purdy, Jimmy G, Trey Lance). Perhaps Ryans feels he would rather build around a guy that could have an impact like a Nick Bosa – so he finds his guy in Tyree Wilson. Wilson did not have the production that Will Anderson had, but he has all the measurables to make him an elite pass rusher.
Rd. 1 Pick 3: Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama, 6-4 253 Pounds
The Cardinals are for sure a potential trade-back team, but I choose not to mock trades – and why trade, when one of the draft’s best prospects falls into your lap? Will Anderson has a tenacious motor and is one of the best athletes available in the entire draft. There are plenty of holes to fill on this Cardinals team, might as well fill one of them with a guy that could wind up being one of the best players in the entire draft.
Rd. 1 Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky, 6-4 229 Pounds
I so badly want to pick CJ Stroud here. I’m a Colts fan, and the guy I see as the 2nd best quarterback in the draft has just fallen to us! But there are too many rumors that Stroud is not the guy that the Colts front office wants. The pick is sure to be a quarterback, as the revolving door of quarterbacks on the brink of retirement has to end at some point. Jim Irsay, Chris Ballard, and new head coach Shane Steichen ultimately nab Will Levis to be their quarterback of the future. Levis has the upside of a game changing quarterback, and the Colts convince themselves his down year last season was more due to losing 80% of his offensive line and Wandale Robinson than it was a predictor of his future success.
Rd. 1 Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia, 6-3 314 Pounds
For a while, Carter looked like a potential number one pick until his draft stock took a hit when his reckless driving and racing charges came to the surface. Putting that aside, Carter is still a heck of a talent on last year’s best college team. And we know with the NFL, talent will ultimately win out. Carter opted to not even take a visit to any team outside of the top 10. He finds his landing spot with Pete Carroll and the Seahawks, who have always wanted to build their strength around their defense and are especially feeling that way after Geno Smith’s breakout year took them out of quarterback contention.
Rd. 1 Pick 6: Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Illinois, CB, 6-0 181 Pounds
This just seems like such a Dan Campbell pick, a tenacious defender at a position of need after trading away Jeff Okudah to the Falcons. The Lions, who could be the division favorite this year, need help on defense to do so. This seems like such a logical fit that I almost feel as confident in this pick as I do Bryce Young to the Panthers – which almost certainly means the Lions will go another direction.
Rd. 1 Pick 7: Las Vegas Raiders – C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, QB, 6-3 214 Pounds
Had you ever heard of the S-2 Cognitive test prior to this week? Me either. From my research, I have found that it is a test “intended to gauge how quickly and accurately a prospect processes information while in a chaotic environment.” Rumors are that Stroud tanked his test – scoring an 18% - which has in turn tanked his draft stock. All that said, you cannot convince me that the Raiders think Jimmy G is their long-term solution at the position and I do not buy the “Ohio State quarterbacks always fail” narrative (there have only been four ever drafted in the first round). If Stroud needs time to develop how he processes information like the test suggests, then sitting behind Jimmy G could help.
Rd. 1 Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, Texas, RB, 5-11 215 Pounds
Whoever wins out between Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder is going to want some more offensive firepower, who better than a completely game-changing guy out of the backfield like Bijan Robinson? An offense that boasts Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is dangerous – even if the quarterback situation is a bit of a question mark. Add in that Arthur Smith came from the Titans, who rode Derrick Henry to the playoffs year after year, and it seems like a natural fit.
Rd. 1 Pick 9: Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State, OT, 6-6 313 Pounds
It is time to protect Justin Fields and see if you really do have a guy at quarterback. It seemed like when Ryan Poles was at Ohio State’s pro day, he zeroed in on Johnson. Johnson is still yet to turn 22, has experience protecting Fields, is a standup guy off the field, and has all the traits of a great pass-blocking left tackle. After adding DJ Moore to Mooney, Kmet, and Claypool, it is time to protect Fields and see what you have.
Rd. 1 Pick 10: Philadelphia Eagles – Christian Gonzalez, Oregon, CB, 6-1 197 Pounds
The fun pick that I have seen in a lot of mocks is Bijan Robinson here, but 1) he is already off the board in this mock and 2) I see the Eagles trying to load back up on the defensive side of the ball as their main priority with this pick. The Eagles and the Chiefs, both in the Super Bowl last year, rolled out Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Isiah Pacheco at tailback… clearly, running back simply should not be a priority in today’s NFL. Gonzalez is fast, lengthy, and can guard big receivers on the outside.
Rd. 1 Pick 11: Tennessee Titans – Anthony Richardson, Florida, QB, 6-4 244 Pounds
The biggest athletic freak at the position finds his new home with the 11th pick. Malik Willis and Ryan Tannehill are not the long-term answer, but Tannehill could be serviceable for one more year while grooming Richardson for the future. By taking him in the first round, they have the flexibility of the fifth-year option and have no fear in giving him a redshirt year next year. He has all the traits! Now to see if he can be turned into a quarterback.
Rd. 1 Pick 12: Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State, WR, 6-1 196 Pounds
The direction of this pick weighs heavily on who the Texans decide to select at pick number two. Having steered clear of the quarterbacks and now seeing all of the top 4 QBs off the board, they will have to proceed with Davis Mills. It would be helpful to give him someone to throw to, especially after losing Brandin Cooks. Smith-Njigba is one of the most dynamic players at the position and will become the #1 target for Mills as soon as he steps foot in Houston.
Rd. 1 Pick 13: Green Bay Packers – Michael Mayer, Notre Dame, TE, 6-5 249 Pounds
After the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Packers now move up to 13 on the board. Call it a spite pick if you like, but the truth is the Packers never needed to draft a first-round WR or TE when Rodgers was playing quarterback – he could have MVP seasons without top-tier talent. It is yet to be seen if Jordan Love can live up to that level, or even sniff it. Packers select his comfort target/safety valve for the near future in Michael Mayer, with the added benefit of using Mayer as a blocker when necessary.
Rd. 1 Pick 14: New England Patriots – Peter Skoronski, Northwestern, OT, 6-4 313 Pounds
Show me someone who thinks they know what Bill Belichick is thinking when it comes to the draft and I will show you a liar… but a strong Big Ten lineman seems like something he would like, and the Patriots find him in Skoronski.
Rd. 1 Pick 15: New York Jets – Broderick Jones, Georgia, OT, 6-5 249 Pounds
Mekhi Becton has not been able to stay healthy, and Jets JM Joe Douglas is a former offensive lineman that just traded away a haul to get their quarterback of the future, Aaron Rodgers. A more reliable tackle seems like an obvious choice, as the Jets now show real potential to compete not only in the division but in the entire NFL. Jones is massive with long arms and can set the tone in run and pass blocking.
Rd. 1 Pick 16: Washington Commanders – Dalton Kincaid, Utah, TE, 6-4 246 Pounds
Michael Mayer is still my favorite tight end in the class, but if Kincaid ultimately is the best, I would not be shocked. Eric Bieniemy takes over as the offensive coordinator in DC and drafts his next Travis Kelce. Kincaid is the best pass catcher of the tight ends this year, even though he is a bit undersized.
Rd. 1 Pick 17: Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, Tennessee, OT, 6-5 333 Pounds
There was just one quarterback taken in the first round of the draft last season and that was Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He struggled to have the protection he really needed, but he still was able to lead the team to a 9-8 finish. Darnell Wright’s game against Will Anderson showed he can compete at the highest level, making him an easy choice to take at right tackle to protect Pickett.
Rd. 1 Pick 18: Detroit Lions – Lukas Van Ness, Iowa, Edge, 6-5 272 Pounds
The Lions already bolstered their defense when they added Witherspoon at pick number six, but adding Van Ness to Aidan Hutchinson along the defensive line could really change their defense. Somehow, Van Ness never started a game with Iowa, the exact kind of chip on his shoulder guy that Dan Campbell would love. His measurables are off the charts.
Rd. 1 Pick 19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama, RB, 5-9 199 Pounds
This is admittedly probably too high for Gibbs. But with Tom Brady retired, the Bucs have to build their offense around someone, and a lot of the top offensive lineman are already off the board. Gibbs is a first-round talent stuck at the running back position where teams no longer want to take running backs in the first round. But he could be special, so take the talent.
Rd. 1 Pick 20: Seattle Seahawks – Jordan Addison, USC, WR, 5-11 173 Pounds
Jordan Addison is a smaller WR, but so is Tyler Lockett, who will turn 31 this season and is in the tail end of his career. Addison has incredible deep speed, is a great cutter, has reliable hands, and is hard to bring down despite his size. Pete Carroll reminisces on his USC days and selects Addison.
Rd. 1 Pick 21: Los Angeles Chargers – Joey Porter Jr., Penn State, CB, 6-3 193 Pounds
Joey Porter Sr. played for the Steelers, Dolphins, and Cardinals at linebacker, but now it is his son’s turn in the NFL. Porter Jr. has big 10 inch hands, an 81st percentile wingspan, and had one of the best broad jumps in the class. His size will allow him to guard the toughest wide receivers, of which the AFC West has plenty.
Rd. 1 Pick 22: Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers, Boston College, WR, 5-9 182 Pounds
Are the Ravens trying to lure Lamar Jackson back? It is hard to tell, as it seemed at first they were happy to let him walk until they signed Odell Beckham Jr., much to Lamar’s pleasure. They will try to sweeten the pot even more with this pick, selecting undersized but agile Zay Flowers.
Rd. 1 Pick 23: Minnesota Vikings – Deonte Banks, Maryland, CB, 6-0 197 Pounds
I just love his versatility so much. His athleticism jumps out at you when you watch him play, he is long and has the speed (4.35 40 at the combine) to cover ground even if he is beaten off the ball early. After Byron Murphy, the CB depth gets thin very quickly for the Vikings. Banks is a plug-and-play guy that has the ability to make plays at all levels of the field.
Rd. 1 Pick 24: Jacksonville Jaguars – Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State, CB, 6-1 166 Pounds
The obvious concern here is his weight – the cornerback taken one before him has over 30 pounds on him. But the athleticism is there, and Forbes turned heads at the combine in Indy with his 4.35 40. And he knows how to use his speed; 6 of his 14 interceptions have been returned for touchdowns. The Jaguars have Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams but could use a third option at corner.
Rd. 1 Pick 25: New York Giants – Quentin Johnston, TCU, WR, 6-3 208 Pounds
Brian Daboll was able to make Daniel Jones look like a serviceable quarterback, and that was without any real weapons to throw to. They have now made their financial commitment to Jones and now need to give him a new toy – Quentin Johnston, a big-bodied receiver that cuts like a much smaller player, should do the trick.
Rd. 1 Pick 26: Dallas Cowboys – Darnell Washington, Georgia, TE, 6-7 264 Pounds
The Cowboys opted to move on from Dalton Schultz this offseason and I just cannot stop imagining Jerry Jones becoming enamored with Darnell Washington to replace him. The upside of Washington is obvious: his insane size. The question mark comes in his involvement in the passing game, which lacked at Georgia, but I could see the Cowboys convincing themselves they could get that out of him.
Rd. 1 Pick 27: Buffalo Bills – O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida, IOL, 6-5 330 Pounds
The Bills believe in building their team through the trenches, and while many mocks have them going on the defensive side of the trenches, I think they opt to bolster their protection for Josh Allen in selecting O’Cyrus Torrence. Torrence not only will be able to protect Allen but should help establish a presence along the interior offensive line that can hopefully, finally, unleash the Bills rushing attack.
Rd. 1 Pick 28: Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Branch, Alabama, S, 6-0 190 Pounds
At the back end of the first round and with not too many glaring roster holes, the Bengals can really draft for need here. Jessie Bates left in free agency, so I have them replacing him with Brian Branch. Branch’s stock dipped a bit after his 40-yard dash (4.58), but he is too versatile to fall out of the first round in my opinion.
Rd. 1 Pick 29: New Orleans Saints – Bryan Bresee, Clemson, DL, 6-6 298 Pounds
Bresee’s 2022 tape does not warrant a first-round selection, but many scouts are willing to bet on his measurables as an interior defensive line stuffer. The former 5-star recruit could be a menace with that size in the middle of opposing offensive lines.
Rd. 1 Pick 30: Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith, Georgia, Edge, 6-2 238 Pounds
I continue to think the Eagles use both their first-round picks on the defensive side of the ball. There is a lot of smoke that the Eagles are enamored with Smith, so to be able to get him with the second to last pick of the round, I think they would be thrilled. Smith is strong enough to set the edge on the run, has an inch on Hasson Reddick who would man the other defensive end, and Smith ran a 4.3 40. There is talk Smith could go at pick 10 to the Eagles. He would be an absolute prize at pick 30.
Rd. 1 Pick 31: Kansas City Chiefs – Mazi Smith, Michigan, DL, 6-3 323 Pounds
Mazi Smith was the number 1 player on Bruce Feldman’s 2022 Freaks List and that is accurate. Smith is an absolute load at the nose tackle position, but he also has the athleticism to go along with his size. Smith is a run stuffer by nature, and Kansas City would hope to unleash his ability to also produce more sacks in the passing attack.