Hoosier Huddle's 2019 Bowl Projections – Week One

Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

Being “right” on bowl projections before the bulk of teams have even suited up is an unrealistic expectation. However, these early season bowl picks are a fun barometer to track how things may be changing or what the expectations for a team might actually be. Keep in mind, there are contracts with these bowl games and just because a team finishes third in a conference does not mean they automatically get the conference’s third bowl slot. I will update these projections each week as game results impact things. We are an IU-centric site so I am only listing games that involved Big Ten squads. With no further delay, here is the first crack of the 2019 bowl projections:

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Utah

I have the Ohio State Buckeyes winning the Big Ten but missing the College Football Playoff. This would be a very frustrating end to the season for the Buckeyes and for the Big Ten as they would miss the College Football Playoff yet again. However, taking on the Utes in their first Rose Bowl ever and winning the Big Ten yet again is a really nice consolation prize.

Missing the CFP places the Big Ten champ in the Rose Bowl and it could place a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl. The highest ranked non-playoff team from the ACC (which will likely not be a great team) gets one spot and the highest ranked at-large team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame gets the other. Michigan versus Notre Dame could end up being an Orange Bowl decider.

Citrus Bowl – Nebraska vs. Florida

The Big Ten’s next slot is the Citrus Bowl and, if possible, they cannot take Penn State, Michigan or Minnesota. I have picked Nebraska to win the West (I don’t feel good about it but someone has to emerge from the scrum) and you better believe the Citrus Bowl would love to have the Big Red fan base emerge on sunny Florida for New Year’s. Florida is 1-0 after beating Miami unconvincingly. They are not great but if they go 8-4 or 9-3 and finish second in the East and Alabama, Georgia and LSU or Auburn are already off the board, they’ll get the nod.

Outback Bowl – Penn State vs. Auburn

The Outback Bowl cannot take (if at all possible) Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern so that leaves us with a choice between Penn State and Michigan State. Give me the Nittany Lions and the Auburn Tigers (who I am projecting at 8-4).

Holiday Bowl – Michigan vs. Oregon

Michigan falls to the Holiday Bowl, something that would thrill the bowl committee in San Diego and likely enrage the Maize and Blue fan base. I have them at 9-3 which is not a bad season but it would likely keep them from a New Year’s Six game and they contract obligations keep them from the Citrus or the Outback Bowls. Oregon gets the nod as the PAC-12’s number three squad (behind Washington and Utah).

Gator Bowl – Michigan State vs. Tennessee

The Volunteers return to the postseason and take on the Michigan State Spartans. The Big Ten goes to either the Gator Bowl or the Music City Bowl, three appearances each in six years. The Big Ten played in the Music City for three straight years so it seems very probable that this slot will be the Gator Bowl. If so, Iowa and Penn State cannot go. This means we are still looking for a spot for Iowa, Wisconsin, our Hoosiers and a few other potentially bowl-eligible squads.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Minnesota vs. North Carolina State

It would not shock me if Minnesota won the West this season. Their schedule is favorable and their running game could be nasty. However, I can’t quite buy in yet. IU, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State and Wisconsin are out for this slot, if possible.

Redbox Bowl – Iowa vs. Arizona State

I think Iowa is going to be pretty good but a slide down the pecking order is going to happen to some teams this season. 2019 is the sixth year of the current bowl contracts and the Hawkeyes are going to be kept out of a few of the higher tier bowls.

Quick Lane Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Boston College

The Badgers slide down to the Quick Lane Bowl. My prediction: they finish around 7-5 with a loss to Iowa and are blocked from the Pinstripe Bowl, Gator Bowl and Outback Bowl. Jonathan Taylor sits out the bowl game to protect his well-established draft stock and the national media begins to publicly wonder if Paul Chryst is capable of keeping Wisconsin up with the rising tide in the Big Ten West.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Indiana vs. Fresno State

New IU offensive coordinator meets up with his former squad as IU travels to Fort Worth to play the Fresno State Bulldogs. I won’t be picky about any bowl destination for the Hoosiers. As long as IU is playing in a bowl game, I’ll be thrilled. A path to six wins would include a victory over either Northwestern or Purdue, two teams that could also be battling for this spot.

Birmingham Bowl – Purdue vs. Houston

The Boilermakers squeak in as a fill-in for another conference’s spot. I think the Big Ten could have nine or even ten teams be bowl eligible. If that happens, they’ll be hoping other spots go unfilled by Power 5 conferences like the SEC or ACC.