Hoosier Huddle's 2017 Bowl Projections: As of November 6, 2017

Written By: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

As of November 6, 2017

After a very successful first year of doing bowl projections, we are back at it in 2017 to project each bowl matchup involving a Big Ten team. Most importantly, we’ll be projecting where we believe the Indiana Hoosiers will end up. Keep in mind, these are projections and it’s my best guess as to where teams end up at the end of the season, not where they might go if bowls were selected today.

There was major carnage in the Big Ten on Saturday as Penn State lost to Michigan State and Ohio State was hammered at Iowa. Those two teams are now eliminated from College Football Playoff contention and they’ll each need to win out if they are to have a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl. Last week, I had Ohio State and Clemson in the Rose Bowl, Penn State and Miami in the Orange Bowl and Wisconsin versus Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. As you would expect, there are major changes to the projections this week.

For what it is worth, I am currently projecting Oklahoma versus Georgia in the 2-3 game and Alabama versus Notre Dame in the 1-4 matchup. The only way the Big Ten gets in the playoffs is if Wisconsin goes 13-0.

Orange Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Clemson – December 30 at 8 pm

This is pretty simple for the Badgers. If they can win out, they’ll be 13-0 and I cannot imagine a 13-0 Big Ten champion being left out of the playoff. However, I am projecting they will lose to either Michigan or in the Big Ten title game and finish at 12-1. They’d still likely be the top-ranked Big Ten team. The top-two SEC teams are in my playoff so Wisconsin would just need to be higher than the third-place SEC team to get this spot and they’d take on the top-ranked non-playoff team in the ACC. I am projecting Miami to lose to Notre Dame and then to Clemson in the ACC title game. How would the committee approach a debate between 12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 Clemson and 11-1 Notre Dame?

Fiesta Bowl – Ohio State vs. Washington - December 30 at 4 pm –

The Fiesta Bowl will be filled by two at-large teams chosen by the committee. I have Ohio State here because I believe they’ll now do what they always do when faced with a program “crisis”…they’ll fall back on the running game that they forgot about while getting blown out and they’ll grind teams into the ground. If they beat Michigan State, beat Michigan and then beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, their resume would be impressive enough (and their program cache would be good enough) to get them selected. I’ll have them taking on the Washington Huskies in a “Rose Bowl-lite” desert battle.

Outback Bowl – Penn State vs. Mississippi State – January 1 at noon

The Citrus Bowl has an ACC/Big Ten option. Since I have a Big Ten team (Wisconsin) being ranked higher than the third-ranked SEC team or Notre Dame, the Big Ten gets the Orange. This means the first non-New Year’s Six game for the conference is the Outback Bowl. This matchup has previously been listed as the Michigan State Spartans against Texas A&M and then as Northwestern against Mississippi State. Penn State will not be making the playoff as they now have two losses, no chance to win the Big Ten East and no real standout win on their resume. Still, they will likely be 10-2 and are a very capable team. Mississippi State eventually took care of UMass and they have four straight wins to move to 7-2. The Bulldogs now welcome Alabama to Starkville for what should be a very interesting contest.

TaxSlayer Bowl – Michigan State vs. LSU – December 30 at noon

Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan and Northwestern are all in very interesting spots. The Spartans beat Penn State but I still think they lose to Ohio State in the Horseshoe and their win over PSU bumps the Nittany Lions from a New Year’s Six bowl and moves everyone in the Big Ten pecking order down a slot. Iowa potentially did the same thing with Ohio State. Michigan and Northwestern are both playing really well right now but there’s no real upward trajectory really. I’ll stick with MSU in the TaxSlayer Bowl as a fitting reward for a very good and very unexpected season. I’m dropping UK from this slot after a damaging loss to Ole Miss and moving the LSU Tigers in. LSU is 6-3 but they should go 9-3 or 8-4 at worst.

Music City Bowl – Iowa vs. South Carolina – December 29 at 4:30

This was my projection last week and I’m sticking with it. South Carolina is 6-3 and having a terrific season behind Jake Bentley. They project to finish at 8-4 and seem to be a very solid bunch. Iowa stunned Ohio State in Kinnick Stadium and they now sit at 6-3. They travel to Wisconsin before hosting Purdue and going to Nebraska. That seems like 8-4 to me and I think this would be a unique matchup that makes sense for all involved.

Holiday Bowl – Michigan vs. Stanford – December 28 at 9:00

This matchup makes all the sense in the world. I am projecting the Wolverines at 8-4 (losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State still coming). While they may slot ahead of Purdue given their win over the Boilermakers, I think they’d prefer to head out west as opposed to back to Florida for another ho-hum late December bowl in Jacksonville. The narrative in this game would be obvious: Harbaugh versus Shaw, Harbaugh versus the program he helped rise to prominence, Bryce Love versus the Wolverine defense. Neither team looks likely to have the kind of season they dreamed of but this would be a fun finish for both of them. Michigan is playing really well and it would not be a surprise to see them beat either Wisconsin or Ohio State to improve their stock but for now, I’m projecting them here. As for Stanford, they lost to Washington State and this appears to be about the best they can do.

Foster Farms Bowl – Northwestern vs. Arizona – December 27 at 8:30

I’ve written for three weeks that Northwestern is going to somehow go 9-3. They have now won three straight overtime games and they will be favored in each of their final three contests. If any team above them in this list slips up at all, it would not be a surprise to see them climb the ladder and end up somewhere like the TaxSlayer Bowl. For now though, I am putting them in the Foster Farms Bowl and pitting them against Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats, another team that should be 9-3 at seasons end.

Pinstripe Bowl - TBD – December 27 at 5:15

Quick Lane Bowl – TBD

Maryland is all but officially out of bowl contention after their loss to Rutgers. Purdue needs to upset either Northwestern or Iowa on the road and then beat IU in the Old Oaken Bucket Game. Minnesota is in free-fall mode. Nebraska still only has four wins and they’ll need to win at Minnesota and then beat either Penn State or Iowa. Rutgers is at Penn State and then at IU before hosting Michigan State to close the season and they need two wins. IU plays Illinois and Purdue on the road and hosts Rutgers and they need to run the table to get to six wins. In short, I just can’t project any other Big Ten team to reach bowl eligibility.