Hoosier Huddle's 2017 Big Ten Bowl Projections
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Written By: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
As of October 23, 2017
After a very successful first year of doing bowl projections, we are back at it in 2017 to project each bowl matchup involving a Big Ten team. Most importantly, we’ll be projecting where we believe the Indiana Hoosiers will end up. Keep in mind, these are projections and it’s my best guess as to where teams end up at the end of the season, not where they might go if bowls were selected today.
College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl - Monday, January 1 at 5:00 pm
Ohio State vs. Clemson
Penn State is considered by many to be the team that emerges from the Big Ten as the conference champion. If they do, they will certainly be a playoff team. However, I think Ohio State’s defense has found its footing and is now the dominant force everyone expected it to be when the season began. The vertical passing game is still not a strength but the passing game, and the offense as a whole, looks great right now. I know they’ve steamrolled some less than great competition but Barrett looks really comfortable at the moment. Most importantly, they host Penn State in Columbus and I think they’ll knock off the Nittany Lions, win in Ann Arbor and beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the Buckeyes do that, they’d be 12-1 with 11 straight victories (two of them against top ten opponents) and I see no way they’d get left out of the playoff. The committee will send them to Pasadena. I truly have no clue what to do with the slot belonging to OSU’s opponent. I’m giving them Clemson because I think the Tigers can run the table if Kelly Bryant is healthy and there’s no way a 12-1 Clemson doesn’t make it.
Orange Bowl – Penn State vs. Miami – December 30 at 8 pm
Wisconsin is sitting in great position at 7-0 and number five but I think Penn State will be 11-1 and the top-ranked non-playoff team in the Big Ten or the SEC. That means the Nittany Lions will go to the Orange Bowl and plays the highest ranked non-playoff ACC team. I’m projecting that to be the Miami Hurricanes. One very possible scenario: PSU loses a close game at Ohio State, Ohio State wins out and wins the East, PSU finishes 11-1, the Big 12 has no unbeaten teams if TCU loses once and the committee gives the Nittany Lions the fourth seed in the playoffs.
Fiesta Bowl – Wisconsin vs. TCU - December 30 at 4 pm –
The Fiesta Bowl will be filled by two at-large teams chosen by the committee. I am projecting TCU to fall to Oklahoma in Norman and be outside of the top four. They could go to the Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl. Instead of Penn State, we’ll send the Badgers to Tempe and the 12-1 Big Ten West champs will battle the Horned Frogs.
Outback Bowl – Michigan State vs. Texas A&M – January 1 at noon
The Citrus Bowl has an ACC/Big Ten option. Since I have the second-placed Big Ten team (PSU) being ranked higher than the second-ranked SEC team or Notre Dame, the Big Ten gets the Orange. This means the first non-New Year’s Six game for the conference is the Outback Bowl. Things get really dicey here as the Big Ten has, in my opinion, a “Big Three” followed by a wide gulf and then the rest of the league. I’m throwing darts here but I’ll send the Spartans to Tampa to take on the Texas A&M Aggies. MSU could end up at either 8-4 or 9-3 and I have the Aggies going 8-4 and slotting behind Alabama, Georgia and Auburn in the SEC pecking order. The Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs are the easy choices at one and two in the SEC but this could be LSU, Auburn or even Mississippi State in this spot. We’re going with A&M as they have already played Alabama and they host Auburn.
TaxSlayer Bowl – Northwestern vs. Kentucky – December 30 at noon
For two weeks, I’ve had Purdue in this slot. However, their loss to Rutgers, combined with the way their offense has sputtered and looks a bit lost at quarterback, has changed my tune. Northwestern beat the Iowa Hawkeyes and I believe Pat Fitzgerald has his Wildcats ready for a second-half surge that is so familiar to those that closely follow NU. They are 4-3 with games remaining against Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois. I think they could win all of those and finish at 8-4 but 7-5 seems most likely. Kentucky is slotted to the TaxSlayer Bowl as it seems they should finish with 8 wins and be firmly in place in the East.
Music City Bowl – Iowa vs. South Carolina – December 29 at 4:30pm
IU’s loss to Michigan forces me to drop them from Nashville. A win in East Lansing would certainly change things but I am projecting 7-5 with a loss to MSU for IU and I don’t think the Music City Bowl would happen in that case. Kentucky was also moved so this is an all-new matchup. The Iowa Hawkeyes are currently 4-2 and they still have games against Minnesota and Purdue at home and a road game at Nebraska in the last week of the season. This Saturday’s game at Northwestern is a major swing game for both schools. The South Carolina Gamecocks knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville to improve to 5-2 (3-2). They’ll be heavily favored to get win number six against Vanderbilt and they also have games against Florida and Wofford remaining. At 8-4, I think they go to Nashville. Neither team has ever played in the Music City Bowl.
Holiday Bowl – Michigan vs. Stanford – December 28 at 9:00pm
This matchup makes all the sense in the world. I am projecting the Wolverines at 8-4 (losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State still coming). While they may slot ahead of Purdue given their win over the Boilermakers, I think they’d prefer to head out west as opposed to back to Florida for another ho-hum late December bowl in Jacksonville. The narrative in this game would be obvious: Harbaugh versus Shaw, Harbaugh versus the program he helped rise to prominence, Bryce Love versus the Wolverine defense. Neither team looks likely to have the kind of season they dreamed of but this would be a fun finish for both of them. Stanford is rounding into form and they may still sneak into the PAC-12 title game but their schedule is tough the rest of the way. As for IU’s chances of ending up in this game…I don’t see the Hoosiers choosing to go back to California for a bowl game.
Foster Farms Bowl – Purdue vs. Arizona – December 27 at 8:30pm
Purdue’s bad loss to Rutgers drops them down a couple of notches and I’m changing them from the TaxSlayer Bowl to the Foster Farms Bowl and a matchup with the Arizona Wildcats. PU needs three wins from a schedule that includes Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa and IU. That’s not easy but it is doable and I think they’d embrace a bowl game of any kind, even if it means a costly trip to Santa Clara. Arizona has found some magic in their new quarterback, Khalil Tate and they are now 5-2 with multiple winnable games remaining.
Pinstripe Bowl - Indiana vs. Syracuse – December 27 at 5:15pm
I’ve slotted the Hoosiers here and I think they will be the final bowl eligible team from the Big Ten. I’ve seen enough of Maryland and Nebraska that I have now dropped them from the list of teams that I feel will be 6-6 or better. It is very possible one of them is chosen to fill the Quick Lane Bowl spot at 5-7 but I’ll leave that spot “TBD” for now. IU went to the Pinstripe Bowl in 2015 and fell to the Duke Blue Devils but they are eligible to return to New York another time and I think that’s the route they’ll go. Northwestern was just there last year and IU would rather not go west. Purdue could be an option but I have them going to Santa Clara. The opponent is tricky because it is not based on a slotting system. Rather, the ACC has grouped multiple bowls into a “tier” and the conference, bowl and school collaborate to choose destinations that work for all involved. As a result, I think Syracuse versus Indiana makes a lot of sense and the Orange seem likely to finish 7-5 or 6-6.
Quick Lane Bowl – TBD
I don’t think the Big Ten will have enough bowl eligible teams to fill this spot.
These projections will be updated each week.