Game Day Primer: No. 13 Indiana vs. No. 23 Michigan
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Written by T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
Who: #23 Michigan (1-1) at #13 Indiana (2-0)
Where: Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, IN
When: Saturday, November 7 at Noon on FS1
Odds: -3.5 Michigan
Series History: The Michigan Wolverines have tortured the Indiana Hoosiers, winning 24 games in a row between the two and coming up victorious in 59 of the 68 matchups all-time. IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987, a 14-10 win for Bill Mallory’s program. The Hoosiers have been incredibly close (2009, 2015 and 2017 come to mind) but the Wolverines have prevailed each time. Indiana will certainly be hoping the past is not predictive.
What’s at Stake: The Indiana Hoosiers are ranked 13th, their highest polling position since 1987. They have already knocked off Penn State and a win over Michigan would likely vault them into the top ten of the national rankings. It would also snap Michigan’s 24-game winning streak in the series and put the Hoosiers in tremendous position for a historically successful season. For Michigan, the stakes are perhaps more pressure-packed. After shockingly losing to rival Michigan State, the Wolverines find themselves in danger of seeing their season slip away in only week three. Pressure for results is building on Jim Harbaugh and a loss to Indiana would turn the knob on his hot seat up exponentially.
Things to Watch
1. Can Indiana’s Offensive Line Keep UM’s Pressure at Bay?
IU’s offensive line has allowed six sacks through two games. That’s not terrible (38th in the country) and they have played two pretty good defensive fronts. However, when watching the games against Penn State and Rutgers it has certainly felt like a struggle for the big guys protecting Michael Penix. Michigan’s defensive coordinator, Don Brown, is about as aggressive as they come. He is going to be sending pressure nearly every time Penix drops back to pass. IU will need to scheme to provide some extra protection against linemen Kwity Paye, Aidan Hutchinson and Carlo Kemp and blitzing linebackers like Josh Ross, Cam McGrone or Michael Barrett. They will also need to provide outlets for Penix to get the ball out quickly. If David Ellis could return from injury, he could be a valuable safety valve. Peyton Hendershot, Stevie Scott and Whop Philyor also come to mind as options.
2. Testing the Michigan Secondary
If point number one is adequately handled by the Indiana Hoosiers, I am confident they will be able to really test the Michigan defensive backs. The Michigan Wolverines are very likely to play man-to-man, something that is a necessity when you play the type of pressure defense they do under Don Brown. Michigan State torched them for 323 yards with 204 of those yards coming on only five completions. This means they were able to effectively stretch the field and the Hoosiers have the weapons to do the same. They’ll need to hit some big plays to loosen up the defense and make the running game more effective. This could be critical as IU is only averaging 1.7 yards per rush on first down running plays, a number that must drastically improve.
3. The Takeaway Battle
Indiana has been masterful at forcing takeaways during the first two games of the season. It was a determining factor against both Penn State and Rutgers. The Michigan Wolverines have not given the ball away once through two games. How that battle plays out on Saturday may go a long way towards determining the outcome.
Juliet Gahan’s Pregame Show
Big Ten Betting Picks
In partnership with MichiganSharp.com, this article will include a couple of Big Ten betting picks each week!
Rutgers +38.5 at Ohio State
I know, I know…Ohio State has obliterated Rutgers in the past few seasons and I do expect much the same here but 38.5 points is a lot and the Scarlet Knights, while not great, are competent. I have faith they can keep this one under 40 and cover.
Penn State and Maryland – OVER 64
I like this play for a multitude of reasons. One, I was thoroughly impressed by the Maryland offense last week against Minnesota. Two, I was very underwhelmed by the Maryland defense for the second week in a row and I think they will struggle mightily to keep PSU under 40. Three, James Franklin needs a big performance here and he definitely does not mind running things up on the Terrapins.
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