2016 Season Preview: November 12th Penn State

Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

Week Ten: Penn State
Date and Time: November 11, 2016/TBA
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
TV: TBA

NITTANY LIONS AT A GLANCE

Head Coach: James Franklin
3rd Season at Penn State
Overall Record: 14-12 (6-10 in B1G)
Team Last Year: 7-6

Preseason Predictions

Athlon: 4th in the Big Ten East
Sporting News: 4th in the Big Ten East
Lindy’s: 4th in the Big Ten East
Phil Steele: 4th in the Big Ten East

RETURNING LEADERS FOR THE NITTANY LIONS

Passing: Trace McSorley (20-40, 185 yards with 2 TDs)
Rushing: Saquon Barkley (182 rushes for 1,076 yards and 7 TDs)
Receiving: Chris Godwin (70 catches for 1,103 yards with 5 TDs
Defender: Jason Cabinda (69.5 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and 5 PBUs)

WHY THE NITTANY LIONS WILL WIN

The Penn State Nittany Lions will enter this late-season matchup with plenty of confidence after they dismantled the Hoosiers 29-7 in the middle of the 2015 campaign. IU was without Nate Sudfeld and the offense was shut down by Penn State’s defense (the Hoosiers were limited to only 79 rushing yards and 155 passing yards). On the other side of the ball, Christian Hackenberg threw for 262 yards and scored a total of four touchdowns as the Nittany Lions controlled the game throughout. While these will be two very different teams when they meet in Bloomington in November, PSU players will remember the dominant performance. In addition, the Hoosiers have only knocked off Penn State on one occasion (2013). In short, history is one the side of the Nittany Lions.

On the field, Penn State will bring a tremendous running back and a very strong group of wide receivers to Bloomington. Saquon Barkley missed last season’s game against IU with an ankle injury. Despite the injury, he managed to exceed 1,000 yards in his freshman season and he’s on the shortlist of contenders for the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year award. Against an IU defense that could be vulnerable against the run, he’ll be expecting to have a huge day. At wide receiver, Chris Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton will be a handful for IU’s retooled secondary. Godwin is a major threat and Rashard Fant will need to be on his A-game to keep him in check. Meanwhile, we don’t know if the Hoosiers have a reliable second cornerback so Hamilton could explode for some big plays. PSU will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Joe Moorhead) and a new quarterback (Trace McSorley) but they should be in rhythm by mid-November. Plus, Christian Hackenberg was inconsistent and the play-calling was often head-scratching so the switch may be a net upgrade. Penn State’s perpetual weakness is the offensive line but they are now up to 17 scholarship linemen (up from nine when Franklin took over) so it’s possible they find a two-deep that is adequate.

Defensively, Penn State returns only five of the 11 starters that locked IU’s offense up and they have to replace DC Bob Shoop but there is still a lot of talent here. Penn State has to move on from their entire defensive line but the secondary should and linebackers will be pretty strong. It’s possible that Garrett Sickles has a breakthrough season and is able to provide some pressure to IU’s quarterback (whoever that may be in this contest). The Nittany Lions may also be able to use the LB corps of Jason Cabinda, Nyeem Wartman-White and Brandon Bell to slow the Hoosiers run game. This game will take place in mid-November so poor weather could turn this into a slog and Saquon Barkley will probably be the best weapon on either side if that’s the case. PSU won’t mind playing a slow, grinding affair and taking a close victory back to State College.

WHY THE HOOSIERS WILL WIN

While the Nittany Lions may gain confidence from their dominant victory over the Hoosiers a season ago, IU will remember they played that game with two hands tied behind their back. The Hoosiers were without Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard and backup quarterback Zander Diamont left the game with an injury. Danny Cameron wasn’t awful in his emergency duty but the offense was forced to play extremely conservatively and Penn State’s defensive line was able to tee off on the walk-on and load up to stop IU’s hampered running attack. In short, last season’s game wasn’t a true representation of the Big Ten’s best offense and IU’s coaches and players will be expecting far better in this matchup. Let’s assume Richard Lagow is the quarterback for this mid-November clash. If so, he’ll likely have plenty of time to survey the field and work with a clean pocket. IU has a strong offensive line and the Nittany Lions lost three NFL draft picks from their 2015 defensive line. The 2016 group should have talent but they can’t replace the production of Anthony Zettel, Austin Johnson and Carl Nassib. In fact, virtually no program could replace that trio without a drop-off. Camion Patrick should be in fine form by this time and Devine Redding will want to atone for his lackluster performance in this game a season ago. PSU will have a solid secondary but this won’t be an awe-inspiring defense to attack. Not many teams, Penn State included, will have the personnel to stop all of Ricky Jones, Simmie Cobbs and Mitchell Paige plus the rushing attack and their new DC will have his hands full to keep IU under 30 points. 

On the other side of the ball, IU’s players will be well-accustomed to Tom Allen and his 4-2-5 by the time this game rolls around. PSU’s offensive line made minor strides a season ago but they were still last in the conference in sacks allowed and 13th in total offense. They’ll make minor strides again this year but make no mistake, the Nittany Lions will still have a subpar O-line. Christian Hackenberg wasn’t the quarterback PSU fans were hoping he’d be but he was still a pretty good player and Trace McSorley isn’t likely to surpass him. The Hoosiers may be able to generate some pressure against this weak line and force McSorley into some mistakes. Saquon Barkley is an incredible talent but if IU can keep him from exploding, the Hoosiers should feel good about their chances to keep PSU near their 2015 average of 23 points per game. Chris Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton are both legitimate threats but I have a sneaking suspicion the Hoosiers secondary, which returns every contributor from a season ago, is going to make big strides before this game is played. PSU only played four true road games a year ago. They went 0-4 and were outscored by an average of 21.5 points per game. The Hoosiers will have a chance to extend that road misery and, if things go somewhat to form, lock up their sixth victory with their second win all-time over Penn State.

FINAL ANALYSIS

This game has “toss-up” written all over it. Between the two teams, there are three new coordinators, two new starting quarterbacks and a bunch of questions along the defensive line. Penn State will be coming off of a critical home game against Iowa while IU will, hopefully (!), be riding high after back-to-back victories over Maryland and Rutgers. The Hoosiers will almost certainly fare much better this season than they did last year in State College and it will be interesting to see how Penn State’s rebuilt defense does against an IU offense that is operating at something resembling full-strength. If Tom Allen’s defense has made some progress (and I expect they will) by November 12, I think there’s plenty of reason for optimism but Saquon Barkley and PSU’s talented receiving corps will present a significant challenge.

WIN PROBABILITY: 50%