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What if Trump is painfully right?

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snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/2019000327194759479?s=46

A good read if you have 10 minutes.  I think moderate Democrats and RINOs should acknowledge this if they ever want to be in control again for longer than a term. 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 11:37 am
Butch Crawling's avatar
(@big-ryan)
Honorable Member

@snarlcakes Good post, Snarl, and very good read.  Trump is right.  He's right about a lot of things.  But what good is being right if you're unable to effectively leverage the insight and calculus?  His leadership skills are often nowhere to be found, his messaging is often ineffective, he seems most driven by personal grievances, and he frequently steps on his own junk. 

Some examples.  He's right that our NATO allies haven't paid their fair share for forever, but why question their sacrifices in Afghanistan which he did last year?  He raised tariffs on Switzerland to 39% - - much higher than other countries - - because of a phone call with the Swiss president that "rubbed me the wrong way." He hit Brazil with high tariffs because he was bothered that Brazil was prosecuting Bolsonaro, an action he called a United States "national emergency." His dismissiveness of Denmark and Greenland.  Leaking a private text from a European ally (Macron).  Etc.  Etc. 

The author you've cited even suggests that it doesn't matter that Trump is right.  Nagy states, "The hardest part of this argument is separating Trump’s possible correctness about the world from his obvious unfitness to navigate it. He may be right that allies have underinvested. He may be right that China exploited Western naïveté. He may be right that multilateral institutions became mechanisms for diffusing responsibility rather than solving problems. None of this means his methods will produce better outcomes. Cruelty alienates. Unpredictability frightens. Personalized grievance substitutes ego for strategy. Trump could be directionally correct about the failures of the old order while being catastrophically wrong about how to build a new one." 


This post was modified 1 month ago by Butch Crawling
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Posted : 02/04/2026 12:54 pm
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sharon washburn's avatar
(@sharinincarmel)
Noble Member

@big-ryan Great instincts and recognition poor execution


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Posted : 02/04/2026 1:01 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

Posted by: @big-ryan

@snarlcakes Good post, Snarl, and very good read.  Trump is right.  He's right about a lot of things.  But what good is being right if you're unable to effectively leverage the insight and calculus?  His leadership skills are often nowhere to be found, his messaging is often ineffective, he seems most driven by personal grievances, and he frequently steps on his own junk. 

Some examples.  He's right that our NATO allies haven't paid their fair share for forever, but why question their sacrifices in Afghanistan which he did last year?  He raised tariffs on Switzerland to 39% - - much higher than other countries - - because of a phone call with the Swiss president that "rubbed me the wrong way." He hit Brazil with high tariffs because he was bothered that Brazil was prosecuting Bolsonaro, an action he called a United States "national emergency." His dismissiveness of Denmark and Greenland.  Leaking a private text from a European ally (Macron).  Etc.  Etc. 

The author you've cited even suggests that it doesn't matter that Trump is right.  Nagy states, "The hardest part of this argument is separating Trump’s possible correctness about the world from his obvious unfitness to navigate it. He may be right that allies have underinvested. He may be right that China exploited Western naïveté. He may be right that multilateral institutions became mechanisms for diffusing responsibility rather than solving problems. None of this means his methods will produce better outcomes. Cruelty alienates. Unpredictability frightens. Personalized grievance substitutes ego for strategy. Trump could be directionally correct about the failures of the old order while being catastrophically wrong about how to build a new one." 

Is Europe paying more in NATO?  Is the border closed?  Is the economy doing better?  Is deficit spending decreasing?  Are murders down?  Is crime across the board down in D.C.?  Is inflation lower?  Are ODs drastically down? Were tariff's a success? I could go on and the answer to all those questions is, yes.  So, the notion that Trump is ineffective is nonsense.  He's been the opposite of that.  Now, you might dislike his policies, which is fine, but he's changed the Overton window more than any President in my lifetime. 

Putting that aside, I took the author's man point that whomever comes next needs to first recognize a lot of the consensus views of the world pre-Trump were wrong (or at least run their course) and they need to adjust accordingly.  The author agreed with you that Trump's methods suck (I disagree with both of you, but that wasn't the point of the article).  

 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 2:01 pm
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Butch Crawling's avatar
(@big-ryan)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes

So, the notion that Trump is ineffective is nonsense.  He's been the opposite of that.

If this is your primary point, then your reliance on Nagy's article is misplaced. 

The piece is about Trump's worldview and international order.  "The hardest part . . . is separating Trump's possible correctness about the world from his obvious unfitness to navigate it." 

 


This post was modified 1 month ago by Butch Crawling
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Posted : 02/04/2026 2:10 pm
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Shooter
(@shooter)
Noble Member

I am strongly in favor of several underlying objectives, such as not being the world's policeman and not bearing so high a cost burden for defending our allies. People as different as Bernie and Trump had similar big picture principles. But that paragraph beginning  "The hardest part of this argument is separating Trump’s possible correctness about the world from his obvious unfitness to navigate it."

The strategy of beating allies over the head with tariffs, threats of invasion, and voiding prior treaties are not effective ways to reach new and useful agreements. The world thinks we have a deranged madman as POTUS.  Someone who, if they made a deal with today, might well void it tomorrow. 


"You can't make someone listen to reason if they aren't willing to think"-- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451

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Posted : 02/04/2026 2:29 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

Posted by: @big-ryan

Posted by: @snarlcakes

So, the notion that Trump is ineffective is nonsense.  He's been the opposite of that.

If this is your primary point, then your reliance on Nagy's article is misplaced. 

The piece is about Trump's worldview and international order.  "The hardest part . . . is separating Trump's possible correctness about the world from his obvious unfitness to navigate it." 

 

No, worries.  I disagree.  I think the author's point is Trump was right about a lot of stuff. 

 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 2:29 pm
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sharon washburn's avatar
(@sharinincarmel)
Noble Member

@snarlcakes Some excellent points here.  You're bringing a lot of heat.  At this stage in his administration what grade would you give Trump?


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Posted : 02/04/2026 2:58 pm
Shooter
(@shooter)
Noble Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes

 I think the author's point is Trump was right about a lot of stuff... and incredibly ham-handed in the disastrous way he is going about trying to fix the problems he was right about

the second part I added is important.

 


"You can't make someone listen to reason if they aren't willing to think"-- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451

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Posted : 02/04/2026 3:04 pm
sharon washburn's avatar
(@sharinincarmel)
Noble Member

@shooter I don't see anything disastrous.  These EU countries are certainly a disaster.  We should never want to model ourselves after the EU.  We are so far superior.  Our productivity and scale and ingenuity just crushes them.  Let them pay for themselves.  The things that make us great are what Dems and Mamdani want to end.


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Posted : 02/04/2026 3:09 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

Posted by: @sharinincarmel

@snarlcakes Some excellent points here.  You're bringing a lot of heat.  At this stage in his administration what grade would you give Trump?

I usually only discuss this over tinis, but I give him a B+.  You could probably talk me into an A- after my 2nd vodka dirty martini with blue cheese olives. 

 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 3:30 pm
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sharon washburn's avatar
(@sharinincarmel)
Noble Member

@snarlcakes Me?  Full of Tinis and crabby.  C+


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Posted : 02/04/2026 3:32 pm
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snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

Posted by: @shooter

Posted by: @snarlcakes

 I think the author's point is Trump was right about a lot of stuff... and incredibly ham-handed in the disastrous way he is going about trying to fix the problems he was right about

the second part I added is important.

 

That's been discussed ad nauseam and has eaten many a brains.  The author was trying to get those people to shift their brains from Trump is an a#%hole to Trump is right and what should we do moving forward.  

 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 3:34 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

Posted by: @sharinincarmel

@snarlcakes Me?  Full of Tinis and crabby.  C+

My 3 favorite things all start with Ts; titties, tinis, and tariffs. The more the merrier!

 


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Topic starter Posted : 02/04/2026 3:35 pm
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sharon washburn's avatar
(@sharinincarmel)
Noble Member

@snarlcakes Disgusting


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Posted : 02/04/2026 3:41 pm
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