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Q3 GDP comes in at 4.3%

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snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
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https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 


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Topic starter Posted : 12/23/2025 10:08 am
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snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
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https://twitter.com/dlacalle_ia/status/2003461553618846004?s=46


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Topic starter Posted : 12/23/2025 10:13 am
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QParker's avatar
(@qparker)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_ia/status/2003461553618846004?s=46

Commodity metals continue to soar.

Gold at $4,500 toz

Silver at $70.00 toz

BTC continues to languish..

Interesting times...

 

 


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Posted : 12/23/2025 10:35 am
CO. Hoosier
(@co-hoosier)
Famed Member

After the jobs and unemployment statistics were “corrected” by huge percentages, I have trouble believing any government economic statistics. 

Once credibility is gone, it’s hard to get back.  


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Posted : 12/23/2025 11:33 am
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JDB's avatar
 JDB
(@jdb)
Famed Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

I presume Zero Hedge is still short the market? If there was any finality to tariffs, we probably could have seen 5%+.


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Posted : 12/23/2025 2:15 pm
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Aloha Hoosier's avatar
(@aloha-hoosier)
Famed Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 


This post was modified 9 months ago 2 times by Aloha Hoosier
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Posted : 12/23/2025 2:29 pm
Spartans9312's avatar
(@spartans9312)
Noble Member

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 

 

What mission failures occurred?

 


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Posted : 12/23/2025 2:59 pm
Aloha Hoosier's avatar
(@aloha-hoosier)
Famed Member

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 

 

What mission failures occurred?

 

Are you kidding? They claimed they'd save 1 to 2 TRILLION with their efforts. They probably cost the US money, millions if not billions, instead, but even if we take them at their word, they saved maybe a little over a BILLION. Much of that was cancelling contracts that didn't even have any money spent on them yet. They fired a lot of people, but the government had to hire many of them back or replace them. Several thousand took the sweetheart offer of not working from about March to the end of September for full pay and benefits (I have a couple of buddies that did this because they were retiring anyway) AND the government had to hire replacements for them for full pay and benefits. In case you're not able to do the math, that means we paid thousands of people to do a job while at the same time paying thousands of people NOT to do the job. Not to mention that the people they fired (not taking the sweetheart deal) are real people that were doing real jobs. Again, I want to shrink the federal workforce by 100s of thousands and that can be done in an intelligent way, but there was NOTHING intelligent done by DOGE. I know MAGA doesn't understand what USAID does, but it's called "soft power" which is much cheaper than "hard power" which is basically having to use the military to take care of international problems. DOGE gutted USAID for the savings of what amounts to federal budget dust at the cost of nearly 1 million lives around the world. DOGE put tons of personal data at risk and I'd a say lost control of it, because I just recently got another notice that my data was compromised (last was the OPM and VA compromises, hacks, of over ten years ago) and I get another several years of personal ID protection service at the government's expense. This costs the government thousands per person per year whose data was compromised. NOT A SAVINGS. There are many other failures to list, but those are some of the major ones.

Oh, I forgot a big failure important to QParker and dbm, they did NOT put Politico or CBS news (I believe - one of the network news services) out of business as those guys claimed they had. 

DOGE was a catastrophic failure, and it was obvious that it would be.

 


This post was modified 9 months ago 2 times by Aloha Hoosier
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Posted : 12/23/2025 3:17 pm
Mrhighlife's avatar
(@mrhighlife)
Prominent Member

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

that is great news! Hopefully it continues and thankfully the FED kept interest rates up. We still have that lever to pull of shit goes sideways.

Has accurate wage growth info been released? 

 


ReplyQuote
Posted : 12/23/2025 3:28 pm
Spartans9312's avatar
(@spartans9312)
Noble Member

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 

 

What mission failures occurred?

 

Are you kidding? They claimed they'd save 1 to 2 TRILLION with their efforts. They probably cost the US money, millions if not billions, instead, but even if we take them at their word, they saved maybe a little over a BILLION. Much of that was cancelling contracts that didn't even have any money spent on them yet. They fired a lot of people, but the government had to hire many of them back or replace them. Several thousand took the sweetheart offer of not working from about March to the end of September for full pay and benefits (I have a couple of buddies that did this because they were retiring anyway) AND the government had to hire replacements for them for full pay and benefits. In case you're not able to do the math, that means we paid thousands of people to do a job while at the same time paying thousands of people NOT to do the job. Not to mention that the people they fired (not taking the sweetheart deal) are real people that were doing real jobs. Again, I want to shrink the federal workforce by 100s of thousands and that can be done in an intelligent way, but there was NOTHING intelligent done by DOGE. I know MAGA doesn't understand what USAID does, but it's called "soft power" which is much cheaper than "hard power" which is basically having to use the military to take care of international problems. DOGE gutted USAID for the savings of what amounts to federal budget dust at the cost of nearly 1 million lives around the world. DOGE put tons of personal data at risk and I'd a say lost control of it, because I just recently got another notice that my data was compromised (last was the OPM and VA compromises, hacks, of over ten years ago) and I get another several years of personal ID protection service at the government's expense. This costs the government thousands per person per year whose data was compromised. NOT A SAVINGS. There are many other failures to list, but those are some of the major ones.

Oh, I forgot a big failure important to QParker and dbm, they did NOT put Politico or CBS news (I believe - one of the network news services) out of business as those guys claimed they had. 

DOGE was a catastrophic failure, and it was obvious that it would be.

 

 

You said there were mission failures that were imminent….you never did elaborate. I’m asking what those ended up being 

 


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Posted : 12/23/2025 3:48 pm
Aloha Hoosier's avatar
(@aloha-hoosier)
Famed Member

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 

 

What mission failures occurred?

 

Are you kidding? They claimed they'd save 1 to 2 TRILLION with their efforts. They probably cost the US money, millions if not billions, instead, but even if we take them at their word, they saved maybe a little over a BILLION. Much of that was cancelling contracts that didn't even have any money spent on them yet. They fired a lot of people, but the government had to hire many of them back or replace them. Several thousand took the sweetheart offer of not working from about March to the end of September for full pay and benefits (I have a couple of buddies that did this because they were retiring anyway) AND the government had to hire replacements for them for full pay and benefits. In case you're not able to do the math, that means we paid thousands of people to do a job while at the same time paying thousands of people NOT to do the job. Not to mention that the people they fired (not taking the sweetheart deal) are real people that were doing real jobs. Again, I want to shrink the federal workforce by 100s of thousands and that can be done in an intelligent way, but there was NOTHING intelligent done by DOGE. I know MAGA doesn't understand what USAID does, but it's called "soft power" which is much cheaper than "hard power" which is basically having to use the military to take care of international problems. DOGE gutted USAID for the savings of what amounts to federal budget dust at the cost of nearly 1 million lives around the world. DOGE put tons of personal data at risk and I'd a say lost control of it, because I just recently got another notice that my data was compromised (last was the OPM and VA compromises, hacks, of over ten years ago) and I get another several years of personal ID protection service at the government's expense. This costs the government thousands per person per year whose data was compromised. NOT A SAVINGS. There are many other failures to list, but those are some of the major ones.

Oh, I forgot a big failure important to QParker and dbm, they did NOT put Politico or CBS news (I believe - one of the network news services) out of business as those guys claimed they had. 

DOGE was a catastrophic failure, and it was obvious that it would be.

 

 

You said there were mission failures that were imminent….you never did elaborate. I’m asking what those ended up being 

 

IRS layoffs are reportedly going to cost the US around $500 billion. I personally know of extremely negative impacts on our Foreign Military Sales (FMS) of weapons, training and services. But here's what AI says:

DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), a 2025 federal initiative, caused significant mission failures by slashing essential programs and personnel, leading to chaos at agencies like USAID (lost lives abroad), Social Security (service disruption), and NASA (hindered Mars exploration), alongside impacting national security by disrupting intelligence/defense work and creating dangerous talent gaps. Its broad, blunt cuts to contracts and staff created immediate functional failures and long-term risks, undermining critical services from veteran support to climate research, despite claims of savings. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

 

Key Areas of Failure & Impact:
  • National Security & Defense: Cuts to intelligence community staff and defense contracts threatened the ability to detect threats, with concerns that dismissed personnel became foreign espionage targets.
  • Social Services: The Social Security Administration faced massive disruption, with proposals to end phone services leading to public outcry and internal chaos, as many people rely on it.
  • International Aid (USAID): The agency was "decimated," resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives globally due to disrupted programs.
  • Scientific Research (NASA/Geological Survey): Critical projects, including mapping water-ice on Mars, were jeopardized by mass layoffs and the loss of specialized experts in Flagstaff.
  • Education & Training: Funding cuts impacted educational research and services for disenfranchised populations, leading to layoffs for educators and researchers.
  • Government Functionality: Morale plummeted as the workforce feared job loss, creating a "brain drain" and making it hard to replace lost talent, slowing recovery. [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
How Failures Occurred:
  • "Cut Muscle, Not Fat": Critics argued DOGE's cuts removed critical expertise rather than waste, creating inefficiencies by targeting vital, specialized roles.
  • Misguided Priorities: Driven by questionable data (like debunked claims about Social Security fraud), DOGE targeted essential functions, causing immediate harm.
  • Contract Overhaul: Terminating numerous contracts, even partially completed ones, caused abrupt project halts and financial instability for contractors. [1, 2, 3, 9, 11, 12]
In essence, DOGE's "efficiency" drive led to a paradoxical outcome: the elimination of essential government functions, creating systemic failures and jeopardizing public safety and services. [2, 3, 13]
 

 


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Posted : 12/23/2025 3:56 pm
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Aloha Hoosier's avatar
(@aloha-hoosier)
Famed Member

@spartans9312 Almost forgot, my wife is a CPA specializing in business tax accounting and she says the wait for getting someone online to answer tax questions is double what it was a year ago. She's dreading tax season, which is about to start.


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Posted : 12/23/2025 3:58 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Famed Member

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @spartans9312
↑

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

Good news if accurate. DOGE madness had zero to do with it.

DOGE website is still up - talk about misinformation. Work | DOGE: Department of Government Efficiency

 

 

What mission failures occurred?

 

Are you kidding? They claimed they'd save 1 to 2 TRILLION with their efforts. They probably cost the US money, millions if not billions, instead, but even if we take them at their word, they saved maybe a little over a BILLION. Much of that was cancelling contracts that didn't even have any money spent on them yet. They fired a lot of people, but the government had to hire many of them back or replace them. Several thousand took the sweetheart offer of not working from about March to the end of September for full pay and benefits (I have a couple of buddies that did this because they were retiring anyway) AND the government had to hire replacements for them for full pay and benefits. In case you're not able to do the math, that means we paid thousands of people to do a job while at the same time paying thousands of people NOT to do the job. Not to mention that the people they fired (not taking the sweetheart deal) are real people that were doing real jobs. Again, I want to shrink the federal workforce by 100s of thousands and that can be done in an intelligent way, but there was NOTHING intelligent done by DOGE. I know MAGA doesn't understand what USAID does, but it's called "soft power" which is much cheaper than "hard power" which is basically having to use the military to take care of international problems. DOGE gutted USAID for the savings of what amounts to federal budget dust at the cost of nearly 1 million lives around the world. DOGE put tons of personal data at risk and I'd a say lost control of it, because I just recently got another notice that my data was compromised (last was the OPM and VA compromises, hacks, of over ten years ago) and I get another several years of personal ID protection service at the government's expense. This costs the government thousands per person per year whose data was compromised. NOT A SAVINGS. There are many other failures to list, but those are some of the major ones.

Oh, I forgot a big failure important to QParker and dbm, they did NOT put Politico or CBS news (I believe - one of the network news services) out of business as those guys claimed they had. 

DOGE was a catastrophic failure, and it was obvious that it would be.

 

 

You said there were mission failures that were imminent….you never did elaborate. I’m asking what those ended up being 

 

IRS layoffs are reportedly going to cost the US around $500 billion. I personally know of extremely negative impacts on our Foreign Military Sales (FMS) of weapons, training and services. But here's what AI says:

DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), a 2025 federal initiative, caused significant mission failures by slashing essential programs and personnel, leading to chaos at agencies like USAID (lost lives abroad), Social Security (service disruption), and NASA (hindered Mars exploration), alongside impacting national security by disrupting intelligence/defense work and creating dangerous talent gaps. Its broad, blunt cuts to contracts and staff created immediate functional failures and long-term risks, undermining critical services from veteran support to climate research, despite claims of savings. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

 

Key Areas of Failure & Impact:
  • National Security & Defense: Cuts to intelligence community staff and defense contracts threatened the ability to detect threats, with concerns that dismissed personnel became foreign espionage targets.
  • Social Services: The Social Security Administration faced massive disruption, with proposals to end phone services leading to public outcry and internal chaos, as many people rely on it.
  • International Aid (USAID): The agency was "decimated," resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives globally due to disrupted programs.
  • Scientific Research (NASA/Geological Survey): Critical projects, including mapping water-ice on Mars, were jeopardized by mass layoffs and the loss of specialized experts in Flagstaff.
  • Education & Training: Funding cuts impacted educational research and services for disenfranchised populations, leading to layoffs for educators and researchers.
  • Government Functionality: Morale plummeted as the workforce feared job loss, creating a "brain drain" and making it hard to replace lost talent, slowing recovery. [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
How Failures Occurred:
  • "Cut Muscle, Not Fat": Critics argued DOGE's cuts removed critical expertise rather than waste, creating inefficiencies by targeting vital, specialized roles.
  • Misguided Priorities: Driven by questionable data (like debunked claims about Social Security fraud), DOGE targeted essential functions, causing immediate harm.
  • Contract Overhaul: Terminating numerous contracts, even partially completed ones, caused abrupt project halts and financial instability for contractors. [1, 2, 3, 9, 11, 12]
In essence, DOGE's "efficiency" drive led to a paradoxical outcome: the elimination of essential government functions, creating systemic failures and jeopardizing public safety and services. [2, 3, 13]
 

 

Why are you posting this nonsense? It's been a year and we ran the experiment.  Post the actual data.  I'll save you time.  Tax Revenue is up.  Deficit spending was predicted to be 2 trillion, but  decreased to just under 1.8 trillion. The Federal workforce was cut 271,000 jobs.  Inflation is down to 2.7% from 3%.  GDP has been very strong the past 2 quarters, especially the last one.  Produce actually data, not partisan academic doomsayer nonsense that never materializes. 

 


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Topic starter Posted : 12/23/2025 4:31 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Famed Member

Posted by: @jdb
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Posted by: @snarlcakes
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https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

I presume Zero Hedge is still short the market? If there was any finality to tariffs, we probably could have seen 5%+.

It's very possible.  At this point I think they'll get to 5% at least one quarter next year.   It still is impressive considering the tariffs, deportations, and Federal cuts.  I thought it would slow down the economy more and take longer for the benefits to kick in.  Bessent was Trump's best pick for his cabinet. The guy is really smart and has been spot on. 

 


ReplyQuote
Topic starter Posted : 12/23/2025 4:41 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Famed Member

Posted by: @mrhighlife
↑

Posted by: @snarlcakes
↑

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2003458147122643289?s=46

A big surprise to the upside on GDP.  @twenty maybe a 5 handle is possible 😉 For those keep tabs, inflation was a big surprise to the downside and growth a big surprise to the upside.  Now compare that to all the nonsense you have been fed by the media the past 8-10 months which was directionally incorrect on almost everything. @aloha-hoosier perhaps cutting the 271,000 federal job was productive for the economy after all 😘

 

that is great news! Hopefully it continues and thankfully the FED kept interest rates up. We still have that lever to pull of shit goes sideways.

Has accurate wage growth info been released? 

 

https://twitter.com/realejantoni/status/2001656024097272170?s=46

This is all I've seen recently.  I think next year is when it will start to kick in.  When you have an economy growing 4%+ and deportations it should put upward pressures on wage growth.  Assuming AI doesn't crush the labor market.  

 


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Topic starter Posted : 12/23/2025 4:51 pm
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