BTW, both NYT/Siena and Atlas Intel now have Hinojosa +1 in Texas.
Atlas has the generic ballot at Dems +15, their best score yet.
Maybe things really are breaking blue in the last week.
Atlas is not what it once was…Bloomberg has too heavy a thumb on the process now.
Trafalgar today has Paxton and Talarico tied. Musk's $158 million investment in Paxton's campaign could be paying dividends. Then again, Trafalgar performed badly in the 2022 midterms. They predicted Republican wins or close races in several states where the R candidate ended up losing by a big margin.
https://twitter.com/thombrady5/status/2117036976884842832?a=K0SKtuRYtWiiNPbF3ig&s=46
Just because you want people to not be tribal doesn't mean they're going to stop being tribal. It's going to be interesting watching Democrats try to balance a party of Muslims, Hindus, blacks, Hispanics, gays, and gals moving toward.
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
AES may win because former Trump supporters aren’t voting
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
AES may win because former Trump supporters aren’t voting
MI is gone. Early voting in LA is looking horrendous for Republicans. They're getting very nervous about MS too.
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
I gotta say, the more I think about it, the more this Fake Dan thing seems like an own goal by the Dems. In a single-round first-past-the-post ballot, I could see how a fake spoiler candidate might make a difference in a close race, but Alaska uses ranked voting, and requires 50% to win. If Peltola gets to 50% of the vote, she didn't need the fake Dan in the first place, and if she doesn't get to 50%, then, assuming the people who voted for fake Dan are confused Republicans, their second-choice votes are likely to overwhelmingly go to real Dan, anyway, which won't help Peltola at all.
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
Blacks weren't voting for Sayed. Stevens just gave them permission to vote Republican.
I think the ballot controversy in Alaska will allow Sullivan (R) to eke out a win.
In Michigan, Stevens' 11th hour flip yesterday will not be enough to overcome El-Sayed's (D) significant lead.
AES may win because former Trump supporters aren’t voting
MI is gone. Early voting in LA is looking horrendous for Republicans. They're getting very nervous about MS too.
Trump is the reason
@unclemark According to the NYT poll, blacks were very much voting for Sayed. By a surprising margin.
@unclemark According to the NYT poll, blacks were very much voting for Sayed. By a surprising margin.
I'd love to be wrong.