https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/2098281009989235173
Big mistake by Trump
I said this months ago and it's still true now.
Trump either needs to 1) declare victory and get out or 2) go all in and put boots on the ground. Snarl had argued that Iran was on the brink of economic collapse, but that is not happening.
lol....their economy is on pace to contract 5-6% this year. Unemployment is double digits and inflation is at 70%. Their economy has collapsed and is a complete sh#t show.
All things considered, 5-6% doesn't seem too bad. I would have believed 10%. The problem with squeezing them financially is that their government's legitimacy isn't tied to high employment and stable prices. After a couple generations of sanctions and being run by psychopathic zealots, Iranians seem pretty resilient. Their black market prob makes up more than 1/3 of their whole economy.
Ya, this thing needs to end immediately. We can't bankrupt them. We can't destroy their nuke program or even verify its condition. We can't prevent three dudes, a truck, and a drone from shutting down Hormuz.
The straight isn't shut down. The last couple of weeks 5-10 million barrels have been moving through the Strait. And zero for Iran.
The straight isn't shut down. The last couple of weeks 5-10 million barrels have been moving through the Strait. And zero for Iran.
Haven't seen anything definite, but I've seen stories that Iran is still moving oil out. I take it with a grain of salt, but supposedly they load up the big tankers from Kharg island, go out in the middle of the sea and then offload onto smaller swift vessels that go through the strait, rendezvous with another big tanker on the other side of the strait, pump it back in, fill up the big tanker after multiple trips, and then the big tanker continues on its merry way.
It's slower than before, but it still keeps the revenue flowing.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/2098281009989235173
Big mistake by Trump
I said this months ago and it's still true now.
Trump either needs to 1) declare victory and get out or 2) go all in and put boots on the ground. Snarl had argued that Iran was on the brink of economic collapse, but that is not happening.
lol....their economy is on pace to contract 5-6% this year. Unemployment is double digits and inflation is at 70%. Their economy has collapsed and is a complete sh#t show.
All things considered, 5-6% doesn't seem too bad. I would have believed 10%. The problem with squeezing them financially is that their government's legitimacy isn't tied to high employment and stable prices. After a couple generations of sanctions and being run by psychopathic zealots, Iranians seem pretty resilient. Their black market prob makes up more than 1/3 of their whole economy.
Ya, this thing needs to end immediately. We can't bankrupt them. We can't destroy their nuke program or even verify its condition. We can't prevent three dudes, a truck, and a drone from shutting down Hormuz.
The straight isn't shut down. The last couple of weeks 5-10 million barrels have been moving through the Strait. And zero for Iran.
No, they shut it down. Shipping via Hormuz was reduced by 90-95% from March to June.
Now we've spent $1 billion a day prying the door open for maybe 50% YOY transit.
Iran hasn't made a deal yet, so they must think they can push on with less gas.
A few links if interested.
Iran used Claude to target US Navy in Middle East, Anthropic says
US refutes claims that Iran captured Saildrone USV
The US military’s next significant challenge: Hiding
I spent a year on a ship that was homeported there. Iran ‘blew the hell out of’ Bahrain base, acting Navy Secretary says
Soldier awarded Bronze Star for Valor after Iranian drone attack
@el-zee there is plenty of reporting on it. There has been somewhere between 5-10 million depending on she source you read. Also, if it wasn't happening the price of oil would be higher.