I spent my career preparing for war with the Soviets or PRC. They’re hardly my comrades. You could have read it and commented like a civilized American and refrained from snark. Too much to expect though. Carry on.They did. Should we thank China for it not getting close to that?I thought it was going to 200? All the "experts" said so. It must be true.
Analysts were wrong about sky-high oil prices, and they have China to thank for it | Fortune
You can thank your communist comrades if you like, but there are no experts when it comes to these types of events. It's people guessing and modest predictions don't make the news because they're not scary.
The reality is the market figured it out and oil has been under a 100 a majority of the time. And eventually will come the oil glut and falling prices.
They did. Should we thank China for it not getting close to that?I thought it was going to 200? All the "experts" said so. It must be true.
Analysts were wrong about sky-high oil prices, and they have China to thank for it | Fortune
You can thank your communist comrades if you like, but there are no experts when it comes to these types of events. It's people guessing and modest predictions don't make the news because they're not scary.
The reality is the market figured it out and oil has been under a 100 a majority of the time. And eventually will come the oil glut and falling prices.
Oil below $75…better buy
Maybe the deal includes a big gold trophy for Trump?
"You can't make someone listen to reason if they aren't willing to think"-- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451
They did. Should we thank China for it not getting close to that?I thought it was going to 200? All the "experts" said so. It must be true.
Analysts were wrong about sky-high oil prices, and they have China to thank for it | Fortune
No one credible thought $200 oil was happening
And as a reminder, oil prices falling will not result in an instantaneous drop of gas prices at the pump. They'll drop some, but our reserve is at the lowest level that it's been since the '80's. Prices at the pump will not drop to pre-war levels until that reserve is refilled.
The strait being closed has reduced worldwide oil creation by 15 to 20% for 3.5 months, but our oil consumption has not been reduced by 20% during that time period, so we've been burning through our reserve. In order to refill the reserve, 5 to 10% of the oil we import or produce will have to be dedicated to refilling it. It's still a supply and demand issue and the SPR reserve is kinda like a bank. There are companies / countries that are scheduled to take "loans" out from our reserve that are still ongoing and will continue through the next 6 months. So the drain on the reserve is not going to stop immediately starting the day after the peace deal is signed. It also takes a month for the tankers to get from the strait to here. The SPR will still be operating at a -15% level for another month minimum.
That's why Trump has to get a deal done NOW. If he had waited another month, things were starting to look ugly in late July. We would not have "run out of oil", but we would have been forced to start reducing our consumption by 10% to 20%. The only way to force people to do that would have been to increase the gas prices to $7 / $8+ (Suddenly carpooling would be back in fashion).
So yeah, the 300 billion payed to Iran is embarrassing to this admin, but Iran had us over a barrel here (rimshot!). They knew that if they waited this out, they would get a better deal, and they were right.
Obama's deal was bad, if the details of this deal are correct, it is a disaster.
I wouldn't call it a disaster, but it's certainly no improvement.
There really is no "deal" yet. This is a ceasefire, with an agenda for further negotiations. The conditions I've seen spelled out are pie-in-the-sky; the Iranians aren't going to just lay down.
Disaster. Again, if we take the released details of the money being released, the lack of any commitment on missiles, the same "commitment" Obama had on nuclear weapons, and the capitulation of freedom of movement in international waters to the worst terrorist regime in the area, if not on the planet and now couple that with the billions in equipment and infrastructure that were burned through or blown up and then add in that it makes us look weak and we burned a bunch of our allies in the process.....no, it is/would be a complete f-ing disaster.
So much so that I would dump Hegseth and whomever else signed on for this ill conceived, disaster of a plan. Trump came on the scene a decade ago excoriating Obama about how he handled Iran and he ended up folding like a cheap suit the minute the leftover Iranians didn't roll over for him. Then he spends month blustering like a fool about all the things he is going to do only to hand over today's lunch and the rest of this week's lunch money to the bully and try to frame it as a "win". And all of his sycophants want to try and cast blame on "Da Jooos" because they cannot except the fact that his foreign policy this term has been as effective as a coked up squirrel trying to concentrate.
He managed to put worse people in charge and then show them we truly don't have the stomach to fight any protracted conflict. Everyone involved in planning this should have a footnote to their legacy "*somehow managed to make Jimmy Carter competent in handling Iran".
I won't take issue with anything you've said, except for singling out Hegseth and any of the others involved in this. Trump hires sycophants for a reason. The planners knew exactly what Trump wanted to hear and gave it to him.
The frog knew what a scorpion does before he carried him across the stream.
True. Trump is definitely the one responsible but Hegseth was either a firm believer in this plan and deserves fired or pretended to be a firm believer in this plan because he is the "yes man" that trump wanted...and still deserves fired.
Still no public disclosure of Trump's deal of deals. Probably needs wiggle room for tweaks, subject to continuing demands from the Iranians, prior to Friday's signing ceremony. From all accounts, though, the deal appears to be essentially this: Trump will stop the war as long as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. You know, the same strait that was fully open prior to Trump's war. Discussions on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, Iran's proxies, etc. - - all deferred. These issues will continue to be negotiated over the next 60 days. And stay tuned for an extension as the end of the 60 days approaches in August.
Trump's war has served as an epiphany for Iran. They now know that they have enormous, continuing leverage with the ability to shut the strait down at will going forward and, in turn, mess with the global economy.
That Trump. What a great CIC.
"Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." - Donald F. Trump
US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics
Still no public disclosure of Trump's deal of deals. Probably needs wiggle room for tweaks, subject to continuing demands from the Iranians, prior to Friday's signing ceremony. From all accounts, though, the deal appears to be essentially this: Trump will stop the war as long as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. You know, the same strait that was fully open prior to Trump's war. Discussions on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, Iran's proxies, etc. - - all deferred. These issues will continue to be negotiated over the next 60 days. And stay tuned for an extension as the end of the 60 days approaches in August.
Trump's war has served as an epiphany for Iran. They now know that they have enormous, continuing leverage with the ability to shut the strait down at will going forward and, in turn, mess with the global economy.
That Trump. What a great CIC.
"Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." - Donald F. Trump
US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics
Regardless of what happens, work needs to be done to provide alternate routes for the oil. Iran would be screwed if we can get to the point where we don't need the strait.
Still no public disclosure of Trump's deal of deals. Probably needs wiggle room for tweaks, subject to continuing demands from the Iranians, prior to Friday's signing ceremony. From all accounts, though, the deal appears to be essentially this: Trump will stop the war as long as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. You know, the same strait that was fully open prior to Trump's war. Discussions on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, Iran's proxies, etc. - - all deferred. These issues will continue to be negotiated over the next 60 days. And stay tuned for an extension as the end of the 60 days approaches in August.
Trump's war has served as an epiphany for Iran. They now know that they have enormous, continuing leverage with the ability to shut the strait down at will going forward and, in turn, mess with the global economy.
That Trump. What a great CIC.
"Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." - Donald F. Trump
US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics
Regardless of what happens, work needs to be done to provide alternate routes for the oil. Iran would be screwed if we can get to the point where we don't need the strait.
The Houthis, Iran's main proxy in Yemen, could close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, another key global trade chokepoint) if the current negotiations fail. Something else for the Con-man-der-in-Chief to consider.
This MOU seems like it was the Vance show. They got him out front pushing it and Radio silence from Rubio.I don’t believe for a second Ratcliffe or Hegseth are about to be canned.
If true, then fired for failing to be sufficiently loyal to their king.
And as a reminder, oil prices falling will not result in an instantaneous drop of gas prices at the pump. They'll drop some, but our reserve is at the lowest level that it's been since the '80's. Prices at the pump will not drop to pre-war levels until that reserve is refilled.
The strait being closed has reduced worldwide oil creation by 15 to 20% for 3.5 months, but our oil consumption has not been reduced by 20% during that time period, so we've been burning through our reserve. In order to refill the reserve, 5 to 10% of the oil we import or produce will have to be dedicated to refilling it. It's still a supply and demand issue and the SPR reserve is kinda like a bank. There are companies / countries that are scheduled to take "loans" out from our reserve that are still ongoing and will continue through the next 6 months. So the drain on the reserve is not going to stop immediately starting the day after the peace deal is signed. It also takes a month for the tankers to get from the strait to here. The SPR will still be operating at a -15% level for another month minimum.
That's why Trump has to get a deal done NOW. If he had waited another month, things were starting to look ugly in late July. We would not have "run out of oil", but we would have been forced to start reducing our consumption by 10% to 20%. The only way to force people to do that would have been to increase the gas prices to $7 / $8+ (Suddenly carpooling would be back in fashion).
So yeah, the 300 billion payed to Iran is embarrassing to this admin, but Iran had us over a barrel here (rimshot!). They knew that if they waited this out, they would get a better deal, and they were right.
Gas wasn't going to 7 or 8. Per usual, the doomers were wrong.