War between Iran and Israel and the US widens | AP News
Experts weigh potential scenarios for oil if Strait of Hormuz closes
Lawmakers stress new urgency around war powers votes after Iran strikes - CBS News
The C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck. - The New York Times
US confirms first combat use of LUCAS one-way attack drone in Iran strikes
9 Iranian naval ships have been destroyed and sunk, Trump says
Trump was once wary of ordering regime change in Iran. Here’s what made him change his mind
@twenty I read this morning 82ish is the top for oil, unless something really really bad happens (Iran is successful at closing/disrupting the straight for weeks, which is unlikely). The markets seem to be pricing in Iran is toast, mostly shaking it off. I guess Canada and the U.S. are producing 8 million barrels excess of oil daily now (most in history). For comparison Iran produces 2 million.
Heard a guy on Varney this morning say it could flirt with $100/bbl. Had it on in the background and didn't see who it was or who he was with, but it was based on risks of shipping 20% of the world's supply through the Straits if this continues. No idea if that's the correct number going through there, but assume it to be.
Seems reasonable. From what I read and saw it's based on how well our military does over the next week or so. If they're successful 82 is probably the short term high, not so successful 100+. Markets are hanging in there, Bitcoin is up, gold dipped from it's highs and silver rolled over. So far, the bet is our military is winning.
Seems reasonable. From what I read and saw it's based on how well our military does over the next week or so. If they're successful 82 is probably the short term high, not so successful 100+. Markets are hanging in there, Bitcoin is up, gold dipped from it's highs and silver rolled over. So far, the bet is our military is winning.
yeah it kind of lines up with what you said originally.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
So it seems we’re doing a good job pummeling IRGC leadership and military infrastructure. When the dust settles in a few weeks, doesn’t the IRGC still have all the guns? Not much of a second amendment in Iran as I understand it.
In Libya, there was a well armed rebel force we were providing air cover to.
I would think a true regime change all hinges on the Iranian regular military taking on the IRGC (sounds bloody) and I have no idea where the bulk of their allegiances lie.
Anytime you deal with that part of the world you're gonna fail.AI, predicting we fail:
If you’re looking for a "clean" success story—where the West swapped a leader and everyone lived happily ever after—you won't find one. In the Middle East and the wider Muslim world, regime change almost always leaves a scar.
However, historians often point to two specific cases where the "blowback" was significantly lower than in Iran or Afghanistan, usually because the change was internal, subtle, or actually led to rapid modernization.
1. Oman (1970): The "Successful" Coup
This is perhaps the strongest example of a Western-backed regime change that didn't explode.
The Action: The British (MI6 and the SAS) helped Sultan Qaboos overthrow his own father, Said bin Taimur, who was a medieval-style recluse who had famously banned sunglasses and umbrellas.
The Result: Qaboos used oil wealth to modernize Oman instantly. He transformed it from a literal backwater with only three schools into a modern, stable state.
Why there was less blowback: The "regime change" was within the same family, and the new leader was vastly more popular and competent than the old one. Oman remained a key Western ally and a regional mediator (often helping the U.S. talk to Iran) right up until the current 2026 conflict.
2. Tunisia (1987): The "Medical" Coup
This is a rare case where European intelligence played a quiet supporting role in a bloodless transition.
The Action: Prime Minister Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ousted the aging "Father of the Nation," Habib Bourguiba, by having a team of doctors declare him mentally unfit. There is significant evidence that Italian intelligence (and likely the CIA) provided the "green light" and logistical support to ensure it went smoothly.
The Result: Tunisia remained stable and secular for another 23 years.
The Catch: While it didn't cause immediate blowback like the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it eventually led to the 2011 Arab Spring. Ben Ali became a dictator, and the resentment built up over decades until it finally boiled over.
Why these are exceptions to the rule:
The reason these didn't result in "immediate" blowback is that they met three specific criteria:
Cultural Alignment: They didn't try to impose a totally foreign system (like a Western-style democracy in a tribal area).
Competence: The new leaders (Qaboos and initially Ben Ali) actually improved the lives of their citizens quickly.
Low Profile: These weren't massive "Shock and Awe" invasions. They were quiet, surgical, and looked like internal matters.
In contrast, the 2026 war with Iran is the opposite: it is highly visible, extremely violent, and perceived as a total foreign imposition. That is why the "blowback" is expected to be much more severe this time around.
There are 10 types of people in this world, those who know binary and those who don't.
At least it's not a land war yet. A Sicilian once told me that a land war in Asia is one of the classic blunders...Anytime you deal with that part of the world you're gonna fail.AI, predicting we fail:
If you’re looking for a "clean" success story—where the West swapped a leader and everyone lived happily ever after—you won't find one. In the Middle East and the wider Muslim world, regime change almost always leaves a scar.
However, historians often point to two specific cases where the "blowback" was significantly lower than in Iran or Afghanistan, usually because the change was internal, subtle, or actually led to rapid modernization.
1. Oman (1970): The "Successful" Coup
This is perhaps the strongest example of a Western-backed regime change that didn't explode.
The Action: The British (MI6 and the SAS) helped Sultan Qaboos overthrow his own father, Said bin Taimur, who was a medieval-style recluse who had famously banned sunglasses and umbrellas.
The Result: Qaboos used oil wealth to modernize Oman instantly. He transformed it from a literal backwater with only three schools into a modern, stable state.
Why there was less blowback: The "regime change" was within the same family, and the new leader was vastly more popular and competent than the old one. Oman remained a key Western ally and a regional mediator (often helping the U.S. talk to Iran) right up until the current 2026 conflict.
2. Tunisia (1987): The "Medical" Coup
This is a rare case where European intelligence played a quiet supporting role in a bloodless transition.
The Action: Prime Minister Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ousted the aging "Father of the Nation," Habib Bourguiba, by having a team of doctors declare him mentally unfit. There is significant evidence that Italian intelligence (and likely the CIA) provided the "green light" and logistical support to ensure it went smoothly.
The Result: Tunisia remained stable and secular for another 23 years.
The Catch: While it didn't cause immediate blowback like the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it eventually led to the 2011 Arab Spring. Ben Ali became a dictator, and the resentment built up over decades until it finally boiled over.
Why these are exceptions to the rule:
The reason these didn't result in "immediate" blowback is that they met three specific criteria:
Cultural Alignment: They didn't try to impose a totally foreign system (like a Western-style democracy in a tribal area).
Competence: The new leaders (Qaboos and initially Ben Ali) actually improved the lives of their citizens quickly.
Low Profile: These weren't massive "Shock and Awe" invasions. They were quiet, surgical, and looked like internal matters.
In contrast, the 2026 war with Iran is the opposite: it is highly visible, extremely violent, and perceived as a total foreign imposition. That is why the "blowback" is expected to be much more severe this time around.
At least it's not a land war yet. A Sicilian once told me that a land war in Asia is one of the classic blunders...
@snarlcakes Somebody on Closing Bell gave the same kind of analysis on oil. 80ish if it goes quick, pushing 100 if it doesn't.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
They have been oppressed for years, begging for freedom. Of course they have their own equals to our progressive democrats that want total chaos, but the majority want to be more align with western culture. They have been there before, before the liberal progressive equal took power.
Where are you getting this "the majority want to be more aligned with western culture" thing?
I'm pretty sure you have this completely backwards. Those protesters in the streets wanting to overthrow the Iranian government, the majority of the Muslim world consider them to be the equivalent of the progressive / liberals that are inciting chaos. Muslims HERE agree with that sentiment, and it aligns with our current foreign policy / desires, but to the majority of the Iran / middle east, they have no desire to embrace western culture. In fairness, most don't align with the Jihadist nature that the Ayatollah was championing, but just because they aren't screaming "death to America" means they want a Starbucks on every corner.
"More Aligned" Not lock step <-- More liberal, free. I didn't mean nor do I think they want the Starbucks concept. I don't know any Iranians personally, I'm simply stating what I have read over the years.
If men were any more stupid, we would have breed for the extinction of women. Proof yet again that WE are the best thing they have going for them.
Those female pilot seems like a cool customer, by her demeanor you wouldn’t know if she had just curbed her car or had her F-15 shot out of the sky.
https://twitter.com/alexplitsas/status/2028515931173826662
He would have been an interesting guy to sit down and talk with.I dont usually wade into politics, but I will say I wish my uncle could have seen this. He passed last year from cancer, but spent nearly 40 years in the CIA after close to a decade in the army. Almost all of that time was in the middle east and China. He spent a lot of time in Iran around the timeframe of the movie Argo, and knew the guy it was based on. RIP Rich. Helluva guy.
There are 10 types of people in this world, those who know binary and those who don't.
I'm sure the Democrats criticized him for doing that..... at least 3 of them. 🤣This is similar to Clinton’s decision to bomb Belgrade.
There are 10 types of people in this world, those who know binary and those who don't.
We voted for MAGA not MIGA. The anti Israel party will dominate American politics going forward. Remember I told you.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2028587163240071656
We voted for MAGA not MIGA. The anti Israel party will dominate American politics going forward. Remember I told you.
Yeah that presser is not going to quiet the “we fight wars on behalf of Israel” crowd
We voted for MAGA not MIGA. The anti Israel party will dominate American politics going forward. Remember I told you.
Yeah that presser is not going to quiet the “we fight wars on behalf of Israel” crowd
And Saudi Arabia and Qatar just arrested some Mossad agents who were trying to blow up buildings in those countries to cause chaos.
We voted for MAGA not MIGA. The anti Israel party will dominate American politics going forward. Remember I told you.
Yeah that presser is not going to quiet the “we fight wars on behalf of Israel” crowd
And Saudi Arabia and Qatar just arrested some Mossad agents who were trying to blow up buildings in those countries to cause chaos.
Let’s wait til that’s reported by someone other than Tucker.
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