What's the cost of a nuclear Iran controlling the Straight of Hormuz and being able to strike Europe and Israel?
That's a separate line of discussion.
The question being asked was, can all the countries that currently use the strait find alternate ways to get their products in / out that in doing so will render Iran's control of the strait moot.
I am simply answering that question. Yes, it is possible, but there are significant costs / time associated with doing it.
I explained my position on this war in the "what will it take to end the war" thread. At this point, we are in it, regardless of what the reasons were that got us to this point. I believe that either A) We should claim victory, pull out, and let the ME countries deal with the fallout of Iran trying to strongarm their hold on the strait (which threatens their profits) or B) Go all in, boots on the ground, and force the regime change completely with occupation. Hopefully pull some lessons-learned from Afghanistan and do it better this time.
Doing this half-cocked has put us in a game of chicken (economically). Who will blink first and make concessions at the table.
I disagree with boots on the ground. Once again it's not a game of chicken economically. We're kicking their a#% economically and long term we end up benefiting from it. We pay a dollar or two more for gas, have slightly higher inflation, and maybe a recession. Two years from now we produce more oil and a lot less travels through Hormuz. Iran's economy gets destroyed.
If we impoverish the average Iranian via blockade, and even most of the IRGC, does that bend the will of their negotiators?
Probably not, but I’m curious to see just how radical those IRGC members are once their checks stop coming.
@snarlcakes disagree on that. Agree with the other poster that it's a solution (bypassing Hormuz) that's a decade+out.
The actual reality is that some deal will be cut between Iran and Trump. So far this exercise has been a strategic failure. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough diplomatically you either have escalation or TACO.
Of course I'm talking long term and I think the market would fix it within 24 - 36 months. Governments respond quickly when they think their head might end up on a spike. Suddenly, climate change, regulations, and the bird nobody has heard about aren't a thing anymore.
Agree in concept, but 24-36 months is just not feasible. Even just focusing on oil alone, a new pipeline that goes 400 miles takes 3 years of construction time alone. It sounds easy, but the amount of time and engineering that goes into the design before a single piece of pipe is laid is massive. A route has to be figured (as straight as possible without going over mountains, crossing rivers, avoiding population centers, etc.). Even with bypassing of some red tape, environmental considerations cannot be ignored (ie, what areas of the pipeline need extra protection from earthquakes, flood zones, avalanche / mudslide areas, etc.) Foundations have to be laid (and we're talking millions of pounds of concrete). Steel supports and piping has to be fabricated. That's just the fabrication side.
You are also talking about routing the pipeline through multiple countries. Countries that don't always get along even with a united purpose of getting this pipeline done. Each country is going to insist that THEIR workers be the ones to do the installation on their land. Inconsistent installation practices will result. Sections may have to be torn out and redone if it is not done to-spec (oil companies can not take the chance of any part of this pipeline being sub-standard. Leaks are a PR nightmare and open themselves up to major litigation) and this is a "weakest link" condition where one broken part takes out the entire system.
And if Keystone is any kind of example, getting just one community that neighbors the proposed path that freaks out about it and is able to scream loud enough about it, you get political grandstanding and delays.
Is it possible, sure. But unfortunately, the odds of pulling it off in that timeframe are miniscule.
@snarlcakes disagree on that. Agree with the other poster that it's a solution (bypassing Hormuz) that's a decade+out.
The actual reality is that some deal will be cut between Iran and Trump. So far this exercise has been a strategic failure. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough diplomatically you either have escalation or TACO.
I agree a deal being cut is the most likely outcome.
Of course I'm talking long term and I think the market would fix it within 24 - 36 months. Governments respond quickly when they think their head might end up on a spike. Suddenly, climate change, regulations, and the bird nobody has heard about aren't a thing anymore.
Agree in concept, but 24-36 months is just not feasible. Even just focusing on oil alone, a new pipeline that goes 400 miles takes 3 years of construction time alone. It sounds easy, but the amount of time and engineering that goes into the design before a single piece of pipe is laid is massive. A route has to be figured (as straight as possible without going over mountains, crossing rivers, avoiding population centers, etc.). Even with bypassing of some red tape, environmental considerations cannot be ignored (ie, what areas of the pipeline need extra protection from earthquakes, flood zones, avalanche / mudslide areas, etc.) Foundations have to be laid (and we're talking millions of pounds of concrete). Steel supports and piping has to be fabricated. That's just the fabrication side.
You are also talking about routing the pipeline through multiple countries. Countries that don't always get along even with a united purpose of getting this pipeline done. Each country is going to insist that THEIR workers be the ones to do the installation on their land. Inconsistent installation practices will result. Sections may have to be torn out and redone if it is not done to-spec (oil companies can not take the chance of any part of this pipeline being sub-standard. Leaks are a PR nightmare and open themselves up to major litigation) and this is a "weakest link" condition where one broken part takes out the entire system.
And if Keystone is any kind of example, getting just one community that neighbors the proposed path that freaks out about it and is able to scream loud enough about it, you get political grandstanding and delays.
Is it possible, sure. But unfortunately, the odds of pulling it off in that timeframe are miniscule.
That's reasonable. I just think if governments deem something an emergency and step aside the free market will move a lot quicker than people predict. During Covid the vaccines took around 11 months. According to Grok the mumps vaccine was the fastest previously and it took around 4 years.
The bypass or optionality matrix is already under construction, completion by 2030.@snarlcakes disagree on that. Agree with the other poster that it's a solution (bypassing Hormuz) that's a decade+out.
The actual reality is that some deal will be cut between Iran and Trump. So far this exercise has been a strategic failure. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough diplomatically you either have escalation or TACO.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iUe9dRrjMYM&pp=0gcJCVACo7VqN5tD&ra=m
So Trump has leverage points in negotiating. Iran is already set back years in damages. How long can they afford to forgo their oil revenues? Threaten limited but precise additional strategic military strikes. Pressure China behind closed doors. Hormuz closure affects China more than us. No doubt many others.
This flips the narrative Iran wins by waiting.
Trump is preparing for an extended closure. That’s correct and should work. Iran will buckle
There is little doubt Iran is screwed economically. But stuff does get through, below is from Google AI. They do get some stuff through.
- Pakistan Transit Routes (2026): In response to thousands of containers being stranded at ports, Pakistan officially opened six land routes through its territory to allow third-country goods to reach Iran, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
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Is Iran looking to move crude through it's northern ports to ...
Apr 29, 2026 — beerhandups. • 1d ago. The oil is located in the south and west on the other side of the Zagros (avg 2.6k meters) from the populat...
Reddit -
Pakistan opens up road trade routes into Iran amid Hormuz blockade
@hhlurker China has more oil stocked in emergency reserves than the US does. Something like over a billion barrels. The countries getting hit the hardest are (obstentially) US allies in the Pacific.
- $435 Million Daily Loss: A full blockade is estimated to cost the Iranian economy around $435 million per day in lost oil exports and non-oil trade.
ایران اینترنشنال +1
- 90% of Trade Blocked: Roughly 90% of Iran’s $109.7 billion annual seaborne trade passes through the Strait, meaning a blockade halts the vast majority of Iran's foreign commerce.
- Export Collapse: Oil exports, previously at roughly 1.5–1.8 million barrels per day, would be reduced to almost zero, cutting off about 85% of government revenue.
Strauss Center +1
- Severe Currency Pressure: The loss of revenue is causing a rapid, severe devaluation of the Iranian rial.
- Hyperinflation & Goods Shortages: The blockade cuts off imports of food, machinery, and industrial inputs, leading to acute shortages and fueling inflation, which has already pushed food prices up by over 100%.
Wikipedia +1
- Mass Layoffs: The economic halt has put millions of jobs at risk and led to widespread layoffs in the energy, steel, and manufacturing sectors.
ynetnews
- Permanent Oil Well Damage: With export terminals blocked, Iran’s oil storage facilities would reach capacity within roughly 13 days.
- Production Loss: Forcing a shutdown of wells can lead to "water coning," where water fills the oil reservoir, potentially destroying up to 500,000 barrels per day of permanent production capacity ($9–15 billion in permanent annual revenue loss).
- Ineffective Bypasses: Iran has attempted to use the Jask oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman to bypass the Strait, but its capacity is vastly insufficient to handle the volume required, making it a "propaganda" tool rather than a viable alternative.
CNBC
- China-Iran Railway: Beijing recently operationalized a 10,400 km direct rail corridor from Xi'an to Tehran. While this "sanctions-proof fortress" allows for the movement of containers and eventually oil in tank cars, rail capacity is a fraction of what a supertanker carries (one VLCC tanker carries ~2 million barrels; a single train might carry ~30,000).
Facebook
- The "Shadow Fleet" Buffer:Before the blockade, Iran reportedly pre-positioned nearly 160 million barrels of oil at sea and in Chinese onshore stockpiles. This allows Iran to continue receiving revenue from China for several months even if no new ships can leave Iranian ports.
WSJ +1
- International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC):Russia has accelerated investment in this land-and-sea corridor connecting Russian ports to northern Iran via the Caspian Sea and Caucasus.
Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Unblockable Transit: This route is specifically designed as a "counter-sanctioned weapon" that bypasses Western-controlled naval chokepoints, allowing for the exchange of machinery, grain, and military technology that the U.S. Navy cannot physically intercept.
YouTube
- Iraq Energy Corridor: Iran has increased land-based natural gas exports to Iraq (tripling to 18 million cubic meters per day recently) to maintain cash flow.
- Iraq's "Development Road": Iraq is advancing a $24 billion project to link the Gulf to Turkey and Europe by land, which analysts call a "transformative wartime shift" to bypass the risky Strait entirely.
Fox News
- Volume Mismatch: Shipping remains the only way to move the 1.5–1.8 million barrels of oil per day required to fund the Iranian state. Moving this volume by truck or rail is logistically impossible.
Al Jazeera +1
- Infrastructure Gaps: Many proposed overland "energy corridors" (like the Kirkuk-Banias pipeline) are still in planning stages or have limited "nameplate capacity" (e.g., 300,000 bpd), which is insufficient to replace the 1.7 million bpd seaborne average.
- Revenue at Sea: Iran is currently trying to bypass the blockade by charging "tolls" (up to $2 million per ship) for vessels using its coastal waters, suggesting that even with land routes, they are desperate for maritime-related revenue.
- Petrochemicals ($13–17 billion):
- This is the largest non-oil sector, producing fertilizers (Urea), ethylene polymers, methanol, and ammonia.
- Iran is the largest urea exporter in the Gulf region.
IFPRI +2
- Minerals and Metals ($12–13 billion):
- Steel and Iron: Iran is a major regional producer, with steel exports alone reaching $4 billion in the first half of 2025.
- Copper and Aluminum: Iran holds the world’s 2nd-largest copper reserves and has seen significant growth in aluminum and zinc ingot exports.
S&P Global +3
- Agriculture ($8 billion):
- Pistachios and Nuts: Iran is a top global producer of pistachios, which account for a major share of horticultural revenue.
- Saffron: Known as "Red Gold," Iran produces over 90% of the world's saffron.
- Fruits: Significant exports of dates, apples, tomatoes, and watermelons to regional partners like Iraq and the UAE.
Tehran Times +3
- Manufacturing and Handicrafts:
- Carpets: Persian handmade carpets remain a prestigious and steady export to markets in Europe and Asia.
- Construction Materials:Exports of cement, decorative tiles, and glass are primary drivers of land trade with neighbors like Pakistan and Iraq.
LinkedIn +2
Looks the biggest problem in leveraging Iran is the 160 billion gallons of oil they have at sea and stored in China.@hhlurker China has more oil stocked in emergency reserves than the US does. Something like over a billion barrels. The countries getting hit the hardest are (obstentially) US allies in the Pacific.
@hhlurker survival level is all I am talking about. China and Russia can, and almost certainly are, sending weapons. Some food, they can survive.
They may not choose to survive that way. No guarantees they have the will. But, it also isn't impossible they will survive months, or years. North Korea had massed starvation, people were harvesting weeds along roads for food. North Korea is still there. One can see the Wiki below, between 240,000 to 3 million starved to death in the 90s. I do not know if Iran has that in them. But it isn't impossible as it has been done.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990s_North_Korean_famine
Then again, the world has changed so much in the last 40 years. Plus the US Army is a world apart from the Iraq army.
Iran’s only real motivation right now is hubris. Standing up to the great America. How long will they keep it up as they stumble toward the dark ages?