Something else I have heard but not independently verified yet is that the Hormuz strait is also a major route for fertilizer. Something like 25% of the world's fertilizer passes through there.
If the strait remains closed for a few months, the farmers are going to have significant cost increases.
This may end being a nominee for the "Legendary Threads" if such things still existed
With surging gas prices
Did some driving yesterday. Filled up yesterday morning for $3.09. Filled up again this afternoon for $3.59.
Here in Bton, before the attacks gas was $2.79. The Monday after it was $3.29 and by Friday it was $3.59. Several talking heads have said $4.00 gas is just around the corner, and $5 gas isn't out of the question if things totally go to shit in Hormuz.
I can't wait to see all those "did I do that" stickers with Trump on gas pumps around town....
@twenty "The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, and previous months of job growth were not as strong as previously reported, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday in a report that will raise alarms about the state of the economy.
"'Well, that was ugly,' wrote Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at the financial publishing company Bankrate, wrote in a note after Friday's data release."
The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, stoking labor market worries
Reminds me of Biden jobs reports
Survey methods should always be improved, but if you think these revisions highlight some sort of problem with the method or competence of the leadership of BLS, you don't understand statistics. The revisions are due solely to the fact that reports are released in real time as estimates, and they have to be adjusted as more data come in. That's it.
From Gemini:
Historically, the Biden administration (2021–2025) has seen the most significant and frequent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, particularly in the post-pandemic era. While every administration undergoes the same standardized revision process, the sheer magnitude and frequency of substantial downward adjustments during this period became a central point of economic debate. A "revision" is defined as the gap between the initial "preliminary" jobs estimate (released the first Friday of the month) and the "final" estimate (calculated after two subsequent monthly updates), as well as the annual benchmark revision, which aligns survey-based payroll data with comprehensive tax records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Between 2023 and 2025, these revisions were notably large; for instance, the August 2024 preliminary benchmark revision was the largest in 15 years, subsequently eclipsed by the September 2025 revision of -911,000 jobs, the largest on record.
BLS Data Revisions by Recent Administration
| Administration | Years | Notable Revision Trends | Benchmark High/Low | Notes |
| Joe Biden | 2021–2025 | High frequency of large monthly downward revisions (2023–2024). | -911,000 (2025 prelim) | Post-pandemic volatility and lower survey response rates increased error margins. |
| Donald Trump (1st) | 2017–2021 | Generally stable monthly revisions; large pandemic-related adjustments in 2020. | -514,000 (2019) | 2019 saw a large downward benchmark revision due to retail/leisure corrections. |
| Barack Obama | 2009–2017 | High volatility during Great Recession recovery; stabilized in 2nd term. | -902,000 (2009) | 2009 revision reflected the severe depth of the financial crisis after initial undercounting. |
| George W. Bush | 2001–2009 | Consistent but smaller magnitude revisions compared to 2020s. | -376,000 (2003) | Revisions were largely influenced by the transition to NAICS industry classifications. |
Meanwhile, here's what independents say in the most recent Economist/Yougov poll:
State of the economy:
Excellent 2%
Good 15%
Fair 29%
Poor 49%Trend of the economy:
Getting better 11%
About the same 17%
Getting worse 62%Personal financial outlook (1 year from now):
Better off 20%
About the same 29%
Worse off 31%Personal finances now (compared to last year):
Better now 12%
About the same 39%
Worse now 40%Most important issue:
Inflation 26%
Jobs/economy 15%
Civil rights 9%
Health care 7%
Taxes/spending 7%
Civil liberties 7%
Climate change 6%
(Everything else 5% or less)These numbers should scare the bejesus out of Republicans. You can post all the numbers about how the economy is strong that you want, but it won't do any good if the voters don't believe you. Ask Biden, he learned that lesson already.
Oil costs are going to have a massive impact on the economy, and, to be frank, make me think the Fed will need to cut rates quickly. Recession risk has risen dramatically.
"Major disruption to energy supplies from the region threatens to push up prices for consumers and businesses around the world. Rising inflation could lead to fewer interest rate cuts by central banks."
G7 nations to hold emergency meeting on oil as stock markets sink
"Stock markets plunged Monday after benchmark oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 on fears that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran will drag on, after Iran's military said it had enough weapons to continue attacking Western interests at the current pace for six months."
"Major disruption to energy supplies from the region threatens to push up prices for consumers and businesses around the world. Rising inflation could lead to fewer interest rate cuts by central banks."
G7 nations to hold emergency meeting on oil as stock markets sink
The odds of rate cuts have increased, not decreased. If oil stays elevated it will lead to a slowdown in the economy, which would force the FED to cut. It's the same reason tariffs didn't cause inflation. Inflation is caused by printing more dollars, not by increased prices because of a decrease in supply or higher taxes. The bigger concern is deflation, not inflation.
@snarlcakes The odds of Fed rate cuts will increase after May 15 irrespective of the situation in the Middle East and the price of oil.
Iran oil shock: Fed pick Kevin Warsh apt to cut interest rates anyway
@snarlcakes The odds of Fed rate cuts will increase after May 15 irrespective of the situation in the Middle East and the price of oil.
Iran oil shock: Fed pick Kevin Warsh apt to cut interest rates anyway
Markets are forward looking. That was priced in when it leaked he was going to be the pick.
@big-ryan someone should tell the traders in the Fed futures market then. They apparently didn't get the memo as they are not really pricing in rate cuts.
@snarlcakes The odds of Fed rate cuts will increase after May 15 irrespective of the situation in the Middle East and the price of oil.
Iran oil shock: Fed pick Kevin Warsh apt to cut interest rates anyway
He's one vote among several. Nothing is certain.
@big-ryan someone should tell the traders in the Fed futures market then. They apparently didn't get the memo as they are not really pricing in rate cuts.
The odds increased for at least 2 cuts after the war broke out in 26. You are correct it wasn't that much, which just means the market isn't buying a prolonged war and elevated oil.
Latest Post: How do you deal with Islam? Our newest member: Ben Wiggins Recent Posts Unread Posts
