I know a lot of us, including me, are down on both of them, but I was surprised looking at their stats v, those of last year.
Their #s last year v. this year for every 40M of game time are pretty damn close to what they were last year at Troy and Davidson:
Connerway--
'24/25: 3 pt%--.27; 2 pt %--.578; FT %--.664; Pts--18.7; Rebs--6.0; Assts--6.3; Steals--3.8; TOs--3.6
'25/26............. .281............. .680............ .738........ .17.6............5.2.............6.4............. .2.1..........3.8
Steals is the only stat where he's significantly dropped off; statistically, he's more efficient on O than he was last year.
Bailey--
'24/25: 2 pt attempts--14.9; 2 pt%--.483; FT attempts--8.3; FT%--.768; Rebs--7.3; Assists--4.6; BSs--.9; TOs--3.2; Fouls--3.0; PTs-22.7
'25/26: .................... .9.1 .............. .571.................... .10.6......... .777.......... .7.6.............. 2.6.......... ..7........ .1.8............ .4.9.......18.9
His #s really surprise me. For one thing, he is shooting significantly more FTs while attempting significantly fewer 2 pt attempts. Also, his 2 pt % is much better. Overall, his OE rating is 135.8 this year v. 111.0 last year!! On the negative side, he is getting fewer assists and fouling more often, but he is also turning the ball over less often.
My thoughts as to these #s.......Both guys were over-hyped by podcasters and that filtered down to our evaluations. I knew Conerway's #s had some holes in them....3 pt% and TOs. But I thought based on reporting that he was a smart. tough-minded, team-oriented leader who was something of a defensive stopper. No doubt he's tough but I don't see the brains, leadership, or defensive stopper qualities. He reminds me of Myles Rice from last year--just a different type of attitude as a pg than I expected based on reports.
As for Bailey....I'm just not sure what more could have been expected. This one is on CDD. The 7.3 rebounds for every 40M of play last year at Davidson should have caused him to look elsewhere. I don't know if he thought he'd shoot more from outside....but the highlights I saw were a few 3s (41 attempts for the year) and plays around the basket almost exclusively. I think CDD thought he'd facilitate the O with his passing but he's just not quick enough to do much of that. To the extent that he makes the O more efficient, that is more than offset by his rebounding & defensive limitations, and CDD should have seen that. That said, this type of evaluation can be tricky. On another post I mentioned a 6'9" transfer from Robert Morris that McCollum got whose #s are way down from what he did at R.M. It happens. Not all the transfers will work, unless you're Michigan. It's a crap shoot.
Bottom line---I think CDD is getting what he can out of our transfer class. we just need a better class. Switch Mores Johnson from Michigan to IU in place of Bailey, keep Alexis, and we're pretty damn good.
I know a lot of us, including me, are down on both of them, but I was surprised looking at their stats v, those of last year.
Their #s last year v. this year for every 40M of game time are pretty damn close to what they were last year at Troy and Davidson:
Connerway--
'24/25: 3 pt%--.27; 2 pt %--.578; FT %--.664; Pts--18.7; Rebs--6.0; Assts--6.3; Steals--3.8; TOs--3.6
'25/26............. .281............. .680............ .738........ .17.6............5.2.............6.4............. .2.1..........3.8
Steals is the only stat where he's significantly dropped off; statistically, he's more efficient on O than he was last year.
Bailey--
'24/25: 2 pt attempts--14.9; 2 pt%--.483; FT attempts--8.3; FT%--.768; Rebs--7.3; Assists--4.6; BSs--.9; TOs--3.2; Fouls--3.0; PTs-22.7
'25/26: .................... .9.1 .............. .571.................... .10.6......... .777.......... .7.6.............. 2.6.......... ..7........ .1.8............ .4.9.......18.9
His #s really surprise me. For one thing, he is shooting significantly more FTs while attempting significantly fewer 2 pt attempts. Also, his 2 pt % is much better. Overall, his OE rating is 135.8 this year v. 111.0 last year!! On the negative side, he is getting fewer assists and fouling more often, but he is also turning the ball over less often.
My thoughts as to these #s.......Both guys were over-hyped by podcasters and that filtered down to our evaluations. I knew Conerway's #s had some holes in them....3 pt% and TOs. But I thought based on reporting that he was a smart. tough-minded, team-oriented leader who was something of a defensive stopper. No doubt he's tough but I don't see the brains, leadership, or defensive stopper qualities. He reminds me of Myles Rice from last year--just a different type of attitude as a pg than I expected based on reports.
As for Bailey....I'm just not sure what more could have been expected. This one is on CDD. The 7.3 rebounds for every 40M of play last year at Davidson should have caused him to look elsewhere. I don't know if he thought he'd shoot more from outside....but the highlights I saw were a few 3s (41 attempts for the year) and plays around the basket almost exclusively. I think CDD thought he'd facilitate the O with his passing but he's just not quick enough to do much of that. To the extent that he makes the O more efficient, that is more than offset by his rebounding & defensive limitations, and CDD should have seen that. That said, this type of evaluation can be tricky. On another post I mentioned a 6'9" transfer from Robert Morris that McCollum got whose #s are way down from what he did at R.M. It happens. Not all the transfers will work, unless you're Michigan. It's a crap shoot.
Need to factor in pace and SOS to do any comparison.
Regarding Bailey, I believe CDD thought he wouldn't have to plug him in as the starter at the 5, and then didn't think it would be that big of a deal when he missed on a real 5. I sincerely think league play has opened his eyes about the reality of the B1G.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
@hooky I hope so, but time will tell. I used to joke that Creans favorite snack had to be wings, based on his recruiting. CDD might be even moreso. Just doesn't seem like he's even recruiting post players. I feel like May has done a good job of still getting size on his roster, despite being a perimeter oriented offense. Maybe his intention is to get his posts out of the portal, which is somewhat understandable, but feels like all the guys we see or hear about him recruiting are wings/guards. Who was the last post player you remember him recruiting?
And, I don't really think Bailey was a miss, but he needs a true 5 to play alongside him, so he's not counted on to defend/rebound in the paint. I think with that guy, his value would be pretty high.
League play has opened his eyes about the reality of the B1G.
Which is probably why the B1G fails in tournament play. It's the obsolete dinosaur big man league, while every champion in the 30 second era has been led by two to three perimeter players with at least two all conference or above that are capable triple threats. Even Kansas. Self always has a power forward, the two years he didn't he had a playmaking stretch 4 on the floor and accidently won a chip.
Teams led by big man play eventually lose, sometimes it's in the first round to a 17 seed, sometimes it's in the finals, but the result is the same. this year may end the trend, as there's so many good teams with stockpiled bigs .. but the trend has been consistent for a decade. Jurassic era tackle basketball teams win the conference, but no matter how good they are, they eventually lose.
@hooky I hope so, but time will tell. I used to joke that Creans favorite snack had to be wings, based on his recruiting. CDD might be even moreso. Just doesn't seem like he's even recruiting post players. I feel like May has done a good job of still getting size on his roster, despite being a perimeter oriented offense. Maybe his intention is to get his posts out of the portal, which is somewhat understandable, but feels like all the guys we see or hear about him recruiting are wings/guards. Who was the last post player you remember him recruiting?
I couldn't name one current post recruit. We have that Bosnian kid on the roster now who is 6'11" but I don't know if he's even seen the floor in the blowouts or if he's eligible for that matter.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
@scam-likely I agree 100%. I've mentioned elsewhere that I'd rather have a couple of athletic guys who are around 6'9", can run, and want to get every rebound in the gym. Sampson gets guys like that.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
It's too bad Reneau didn't stick around.
A good friend will bail you out of jail, but your best friend will be sitting next to you in the cell saying "that was f***ing awesome"
@all4you Different, but similar. Someone asked the question in another thread asking us to imagine what this team would look like with TJD or Ware. Who would want to play that squad in the tournament?
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
League play has opened his eyes about the reality of the B1G.
Which is probably why the B1G fails in tournament play. It's the obsolete dinosaur big man league, while every champion in the 30 second era has been led by two to three perimeter players with at least two all conference or above that are capable triple threats. Even Kansas. Self always has a power forward, the two years he didn't he had a playmaking stretch 4 on the floor and accidently won a chip.
Teams led by big man play eventually lose, sometimes it's in the first round to a 17 seed, sometimes it's in the finals, but the result is the same. this year may end the trend, as there's so many good teams with stockpiled bigs .. but the trend has been consistent for a decade. Jurassic era tackle basketball teams win the conference, but no matter how good they are, they eventually lose.
I agree. It's mind numbing at how archaic the BigTen can be relative to the rest of the world. But the quandary is , you have to perform in conference or you don't get to the dance. I've been saying for a couple years now once Izzo retires I'm hoping that type of team goes away. Slugfest and lack of athletic bigs.. and what's funny his team in 2000. Morris Peterson
I read that May had some serious bank to use for his first class which may have had more talent and when values were not as high. But still, Dolson and Devries did just OK even with the available class and money we had. I think we'll do fine going forward. Our image to get players probably wasn't as good as Michigan. They had more success recently, and I think as a uni they have a bit more of an 'elite' cache.
We will get our name back in basketball. Our school may have destroyed Rome overnight, but it can't be built overnight. Two steps forward one step back once in awhile, Coach will get there.
Agree on the 6' 9 guys who can run and rebound! If we can get 'em! I'll take 6' 8" and can run and rebound if it stretches the NIL budget.
@kkott I think he has tried to recruit bigs, he just hasn't either had the budget to get the ones he's tried on, or hasn't REALLY been focused on it. Gotta think after this year, that his mindset will change on that a bit. He's already talking about needing to focus a little more on paint play, so I suspect he'll carry those thoughts in to his recruiting this offseason.
Will Dolson, he, and the donors supply enough money to land an impactful level big though?
It sure looks like Alexis if finally becoming that guy. If he continues anywhere near the form he's shown the last couple games, he won't have been a miss. But for as much potential as I think Bailey does have, and how much I think he could have fit CDD's system well...he's just way too soft at times, and inconsistent, to say he wasn't a miss. We need him now, though. And we'll need him to be the good version of himself, as much as he can muster.
Misses happen though. Especially with big men. That's why you need to land more than a couple bigs this next offseason. Need to add at least 2-3 to go along with Harris and Amicovic.
League play has opened his eyes about the reality of the B1G.
Which is probably why the B1G fails in tournament play. It's the obsolete dinosaur big man league, while every champion in the 30 second era has been led by two to three perimeter players with at least two all conference or above that are capable triple threats. Even Kansas. Self always has a power forward, the two years he didn't he had a playmaking stretch 4 on the floor and accidently won a chip.
Teams led by big man play eventually lose, sometimes it's in the first round to a 17 seed, sometimes it's in the finals, but the result is the same. this year may end the trend, as there's so many good teams with stockpiled bigs .. but the trend has been consistent for a decade. Jurassic era tackle basketball teams win the conference, but no matter how good they are, they eventually lose.
I agree. It's mind numbing at how archaic the BigTen can be relative to the rest of the world. But the quandary is , you have to perform in conference or you don't get to the dance. I've been saying for a couple years now once Izzo retires I'm hoping that type of team goes away. Slugfest and lack of athletic bigs.. and what's funny his team in 2000. Morris Peterson
There's a crop of younger/new coaches in the league now that are hopefully pushing away from this. Need the officiating to get on board, as well.
What I can't wrap my head around is that Bailey and Alexis are pretty good free throw shooters and have shot threes in their past and teams now are sagging off of them.
Can't remember the last time either looked at the rim from three when they are wide open.
Surely either can hit 30% from three unguarded to keep defenses honest to ensure good spacing and cutting through the lane.
Pick and pop with our bigs has been nonexistent.
Getting both of the Illinois bigs away from the rim could spell success on Sunday.