I can’t figure out what moved the line that much. I think people know Hoover is injured to some extent even though his available.
It’s still sitting at 10. I’d think most people are taking USC and the points for obvious reasons.
Interesting. I am a square so what do I know…
Only one of the USC injuries is new and I believe he is a depth secondary player, maybe nickel.
The line movement is so baffling given nothing significant on their availability report.
@tammany Definitely perplexing. Lots of money thinks its knows something that helps IU's chances.
1. Unknown injury or maybe some illness on USC side.
2. Hoover showing this week that he's fully healthy again.
3. Tyler Cherry looked like Josh Allen with his reps last week, and Cig gave him the affirmative eye brow raise.
4. Lincoln Riley seen with a female Chinese Spy, with USC's playbook in his hands.
Has to be one of these things...
It's the system setting us up to fail so if we don't win by 14 or more we look inept once again. Sec is behind it 
So did the gamblers get our injury list before the general public, and see that Josh Hoover was not on it?
I doubt Hoover being “available” moves the line that much. Everyone knows he is still hurt to some extent and the starting QB is still TBD per Cig’s Monday presser.
I doubt it too, but I hadn't heard that anything on USC's availability report was surprising either. And no rumors about Maiava that have found.
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Must just be late 'smart money' ...
Must just be late 'smart money' ...
Maybe they’re setting up the dumb public (like me) to pile into USC +10.
To be clear I don’t bet against IU. But my confidence in covering 10 is real low.
Hoover was on the coaches show with Don Fischer last night. I think he is healthy enough to start. They wouldn't have put him out there if he wasn't ready plus Cig mentioned Grant Wilson had the flu last week and didn't practice.
It's settled back down some. ESPN is saying the timing could be due to a popular podcaster who is on a heater and picked IU to cover in his game of the week, yesterday afternoon.
🙁Grant Wilson had the flu last week and didn't practice.
But if, if... , Hoover is fairly healthy, we'll be OK. Major bummer the capable backup wasn't able to practice though. Guess Grant knows the offense anyway.
I think we're going to win this game. No way everything goes to shit like recent games.
I also wouldn't bet to cover 10 though. That's about as many points as our offense has scored recently. 😉 (Actually, feeling good about a sold win. But 10 is a lot.)
@yothn That doesn’t compute. They’re not gonna move the line based on a bunch of squares listening to a podcaster tell them IU is gonna cover. Especially not that drastically.
@jj_mcclure - Yeah, I would tend to agree with you. At the same time, the number of people who might be aware of an injury that the rest of the world is unaware of, wouldn't be much different. I find it odd that none of the sportsbooks have been able to find anything suspicious as far as the betting itself, such as massive bets. Maybe it's a confluence of events. Started with a podcast, bled into an online injury rumor that created a false flag flood of additional bets.
I consulted my betting advisor, Mr. C. GPT. My guess is #3. Injury happened the same day as the availability report was due, they don't include it and can say later that they didn't know the extent of the injury, but then include Maiava on the final report. I wouldn't bet on that (pun intended), but it wouldn't shock me.@jj_mcclure - Yeah, I would tend to agree with you. At the same time, the number of people who might be aware of an injury that the rest of the world is unaware of, wouldn't be much different. I find it odd that none of the sportsbooks have been able to find anything suspicious as far as the betting itself, such as massive bets. Maybe it's a confluence of events. Started with a podcast, bled into an online injury rumor that created a false flag flood of additional bets.
I see three plausible explanations, in this order:
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A respected bettor/group hit Indiana hard enough to move the originating sharp books. Sportsbooks move numbers based on who is betting, not merely total dollars. A relatively small wager from a highly respected account can matter more to price discovery than a pile of larger wagers from less-respected accounts. Once Circa or another influential book moves aggressively, other books copy the move to avoid being picked off.
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The market repriced Indiana rather than reacting to news. Some influential handicapper/model/group may simply have concluded that -7/-7.5 was badly wrong. Crossing 7 makes this unusually aggressive, but it's possible.
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There is still non-public information. We can't eliminate this. Yesterday's sudden suspension at some books plus a 3–4 point move certainly looked information-driven. But if that's the explanation, we still don't know what the information is, and the first availability report didn't reveal it.