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Are we going to get dropped to 3 tonight?

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HandsofBlab's avatar
(@handsofblab)
Trusted Member

If so, does it matter?  Unless I'm misunderstanding, if the weekly reveal is based on that week alone since the last rankings, A&M at 2 won't shock me as they beat a ranked team on the road (Mizzou was w/o their starting QB) by 21.

That said, no way, no how can you convince me we aren't a better team after the PSU game than before. 


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Topic starter Posted : 11/11/2025 3:24 pm
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Gros Louis's avatar
(@gros-louis)
Honorable Member

In my opinion, the only reason it might matter is if we lose to OSU.  If we go into that game 3, we could drop to 5-6 or whatever.  If we're going in at 2, we might only drop to 4.


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Posted : 11/11/2025 3:39 pm
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TMFT
 TMFT
(@tmft)
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Posted by: @gros-louis

In my opinion, the only reason it might matter is if we lose to OSU.  If we go into that game 3, we could drop to 5-6 or whatever.  If we're going in at 2, we might only drop to 4.

Might as well win 'em all then.  Just to take away the stress.  Smile

 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 3:41 pm
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Tammany's avatar
(@tammany)
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I’m gonna say no.  I think the committee can put things into context, and our resume is still better than TAMU — they have some close wins.

Does it matter?  Maybe.  But if we do manage to be 12-0 (fingers crossed) I think we’d still get a bye even if we lose to OSU (assuming it’s not a blowout).


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Posted : 11/11/2025 3:43 pm
Sammy Jacobs
(@thehoosierhuddle)
Member Admin

T.J. and I talked about where we expected IU to be tonight on the podcast today. I said 2, he said 3. We both said it does not matter yet with 3 regular season weeks left. I am more interested in the drama in the middle of the pack and ACC


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Posted : 11/11/2025 4:19 pm
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Kelly_32
(@kelly_32)
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Penn State is better than Missouri. 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 4:29 pm
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HoosierDaddy's avatar
(@hoosierdaddy)
Noble Member

I think we get dropped to 3, even though our metrics havent really changed. PSU is still a top ~20 team on metrics. I am also not impressed with A&M's win at all, Missouri is down to their 3rd string QB (a true freshman) and he was terrible. Missouri had two different running backs break 100 on A&Ms defense. Their running backs averaged 7.3 yards a carry. 

My logic is if the committee want to maximize the chance of screwing IU for a SEC school, they would need to move us to 3 this week so they can flip us to 4 when Alabama beats Oklahoma and Auburn. That way if we dont win the CCG, they can flip us off the bye week and give it to a SEC school like UGA or Texas. They wouldnt be able to justify any of that if we stick at #2 though. 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 5:36 pm
YOTHN's avatar
(@yothn)
Prominent Member

Posted by: @gros-louis

In my opinion, the only reason it might matter is if we lose to OSU.  If we go into that game 3, we could drop to 5-6 or whatever.  If we're going in at 2, we might only drop to 4.

The conf finalists in the SEC and the B1G will all be the top 4 seeds. The only difference in the CFP rankings the week prior to the conference championships and the official release after the conference championships, is the automatic qualifiers, and seeding amongst the top 4 teams.  A team that didn't make the conf championship will not leap frog a team that did make the conf championship, just because a team lost.    A loss in the conf championship is worth more than not playing in the conf championship.

So yes, assuming we finish 12-0, the conf title game will impact if we are seeded 1/2 or 3/4.  But that's it. 

 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 5:42 pm
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Kelly_32
(@kelly_32)
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Posted by: @hoosierdaddy

I think we get dropped to 3, even though our metrics havent really changed. PSU is still a top ~20 team on metrics. I am also not impressed with A&M's win at all, Missouri is down to their 3rd string QB (a true freshman) and he was terrible. Missouri had two different running backs break 100 on A&Ms defense. Their running backs averaged 7.3 yards a carry. 

My logic is if the committee want to maximize the chance of screwing IU for a SEC school, they would need to move us to 3 this week so they can flip us to 4 when Alabama beats Oklahoma and Auburn. That way if we dont win the CCG, they can flip us off the bye week and give it to a SEC school like UGA or Texas. They wouldnt be able to justify any of that if we stick at #2 though. 

According to ESPN’s playoff predictor, we have a 98% chance of getting a first round bye if we go 12-0 followed by a loss to Ohio State. 

 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 6:45 pm
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YOTHN's avatar
(@yothn)
Prominent Member

IU stays #2!


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Posted : 11/11/2025 7:15 pm
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Tammany's avatar
(@tammany)
Noble Member

😎


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Posted : 11/11/2025 7:18 pm
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HoosierDaddy's avatar
(@hoosierdaddy)
Noble Member

Pleasantly surprised. We stay put, and they didnt knock one of our ranked wins out for losing a close game

BYU got screwed. No way they should be behind Oklahoma, who was just as uncompetitive on a neutral field against Texas as BYU was on the road against TTU. 

Vanderbilt at #14 makes no sense when you look at who they have beat, where they have beat them, and that they were uncompetitive in both of their games against playoff caliber teams

USC should be ahead of G Tech

Still not sure what Tennessee is doing in the rankings


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Posted : 11/11/2025 7:26 pm
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
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@kelly_32 And a 100% chance if IU beats OSU. I like those odds a bit better.


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Posted : 11/11/2025 9:15 pm
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Big Red CB v.2.0
(@big-red-cb-v-2-0)
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If IU had dropped to #3 tonight, it would show that everything is influenced by what have you done lately.  IU won by 3 on the road in a hostile environment.  
Last month, Texas A&M played the last place team in the SEC, Arkansas sitting at 2-7 currently, and won by 3 and gave up 42 points in the process.  
You have to look at the entire body of work.  A&M beat a bad Auburn team at home by 6.They play one single team in the upper half of the conference (Texas in the final regular season).  If people want to gripe about IU’s schedule, they need to see that A&M avoided Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vandy,Oklahoma and Tennessee.  
IU played 3 teams with a combined 20 wins (6.7 wins by opponent). A&M played 6 teams with a combined 25 wins (4.2 wins by opponent)


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Posted : 11/11/2025 10:01 pm
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Gros Louis's avatar
(@gros-louis)
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Posted by: @big-red-cb-v-2-0

If IU had dropped to #3 tonight, it would show that everything is influenced by what have you done lately.  IU won by 3 on the road in a hostile environment.  
Last month, Texas A&M played the last place team in the SEC, Arkansas sitting at 2-7 currently, and won by 3 and gave up 42 points in the process.  
You have to look at the entire body of work.  A&M beat a bad Auburn team at home by 6.They play one single team in the upper half of the conference (Texas in the final regular season).  If people want to gripe about IU’s schedule, they need to see that A&M avoided Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vandy,Oklahoma and Tennessee.  
IU played 3 teams with a combined 20 wins (6.7 wins by opponent). A&M played 6 teams with a combined 25 wins (4.2 wins by opponent)

in the Aggie’s’ defense, as it pertains to that Arkansas game, they were really never in grave danger of losing at any point, if I recall correctly. And they didn’t trail at all in the fourth quarter or maybe not even the second half.

 


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Posted : 11/11/2025 10:23 pm
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