Numbers That Matter: No. 2 Indiana vs. Purdue

Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers ahead of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!

A group of Indiana football players in red jerseys huddle together on the field, discussing strategy during a game. — Photo Credit: Indiana University Athletics

Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers ahead of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!

Without further ado, let’s get into it:

…Represents a shocking statistic that could very well be broken from Friday evening. The Indiana Hoosiers have never successfully kept the Old Oaken Bucket (IU vs. Purdue) and the Old Brass Spittoon (IU vs. Michigan State) in two consecutive seasons. Indiana beat Michigan State earlier this season by a score of 38-13. With a win against Purdue, the Hoosiers would break this streak and retain these two trophies for two consecutive seasons. Shoutout to Hoosier Huddle contributor Alex Compton for sharing this stat!

126th

…Represents Purdue’s overall ranking across the country on Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) team-wide grades. Purdue has not had the best season around – they are 2-9 overall and most betting sites put Indiana as a 28.5 point favorite when the two match up on Friday evening. Purdue does not grade out well in many areas, but on Special Teams the Boilermakers come in as the 10th best team in the country, representing their biggest strength across the three phases of football.

For a larger look at teams around Purdue in PFF’s overall grades, check out the image below.

…Represents – keeping tracking of this each week – Indiana’s percent likelihood to win the College Football National Championship per Pro Football Focus’ model. Indiana currently has an 84% likelihood to make the playoff in the first place and a 33% chance to win the Big Ten Conference. Every time I look at these numbers I reflect on how crazy it is that we are confidently in this position. On top of that, there is sustainability to all of this – it isn’t just a flash in the pan cinderella story. As Indiana fans in this Thanksgiving season, let’s take a moment to appreciate just how crazy and incredible these past two seasons have been after decades of heartbreak. The future is bright in Bloomington!

4th

…Represents where Indiana tight end Riley Nowakowski ranks among all tight ends in the country per PFF’s tight end grades. Nowakowski came into this Indiana team as a transfer from the University of Wisconsin and, while of course people saw the strengths he could bring to the team, I don’t think anyone but the coaching staff saw a breakout like we’ve seen this season. Nowakowski has literally been one of the best tight ends in the country.

Indiana schemes him open, he runs impeccably after the catch, and he blocks like an offensive lineman. Truly, Nowakowski might just be the most underrated and under the radar transfer acquisition in the entire country. Props to the coaching staff for finding Nowakowski (the overlap he had at Wisconsin with OL coach Bob Bostad certainly didn’t hurt) and props to Nowakowski for making the most of his opportunity and growing into the amazing player he’s become.

Table showing PFF grades and statistics for tight ends, including rankings, names, teams, and various performance metrics. — Photo Credit: Pro Football Focus

12%

…Represents the growth in performance by PFF grades that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has seen since the Oregon game. In the first six games of the season (through the Oregon game), Mendoza averaged a PFF grade of 74.5 – a good grade by PFF standards. However, in the five games after the Oregon game, Mendoza has averaged a grade of 83.7, which is phenomenal by PFF standards. Mendoza and the coaching staff must have noticed something in the Oregon game film because since then, Mendoza has been on another level. With another bye week under the Hoosiers’ belt this past week to learn, get healthy, and grow, there could be yet another level to Mendoza’s game that is still to come.

Indiana Game Information

Indiana kicks off against Purdue on Friday, November 28 at 7:30 PM EST! The game will be shown on NBC and Peacock for those watching at home. Stay locked in with Hoosier Huddle for all things Indiana football and Indiana sports – all season long.