IU Reactionary: Week One IUFB Prediction and Preview

It’s here, folks.

National writers have made IUFB one of the main characters of the off season from (moronic) schedule discourse to the rankings but now we’re in game week for the start of the Indiana Football / Curt Cignetti 2.0.

I. Can’t. Wait.

If you haven’t read my Season Prediction article to let you know where I’m at with this team as they start the ’25 season, you can check that out here!

I’m high on IU. Maybe not as high as some of the predictions. This team has a very high ceiling but the schedule, the depth at some spots and the relative health of the team this year must all coalesce to reach that ceiling.

Enough about big picture stuff…We’re here to talk about IU vs Old Dominion.

Indiana vs Old Dominion — 1330ET/1230CT — FS1

IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 41-14

Like last season, I’m going to be making picks. I’m a very cautious bettor and typically fade the public, but I rode IU hard last season and it paid off until the very end.

As always, there are a ton of changes on the IU roster. Until about week 4, I typically watch the games with my IU Reactionary Depth Chart open so I know who is playing where and get used to new numbers.

You can find my ROSTER AND DEPTH CHART HERE!

Note: I will update this when I see who trots out there with the 1s as the season starts but I’m leaving this as is for now…I think a couple of the spots have/will change based on injuries or guys moving up or down depending on fall camp performance.

I’ll be keeping track here, but obviously, right now, I’m 0-0. I’ll be predicting the O/U and the spread. If you didn’t follow my Substack the past two years, I’ll be using BetMGM lines for now and give my analysis on what I chose and why.

IU got no respect from Vegas or bettors for most of the first 8 weeks of the season. I think that will change this year but it’s a bit hard to spot early with the three buy games to start.

ODU has a sneaky good team with a QB that can run or throw, so I get why this line has vacillated between IU -23.5 and -22.5.

ESPN’s FPI has IU as an 88.5% chance to win and Bill Connolly and his SP+ model gives IU a 95% chance to win.

IU isn’t going to lose this game…

SP+ has this game at IU -25.9 and I’m much more on board with that number than -22.5. I think IU has something to prove and, even though they’re going to want to get a bunch of guys reps, they need to make sure they’re taking care of business.

For this week, I’m taking IU (-22.5) and the OVER (54.5).

I’m not going to do a full breakdown of ODU as IU is a heavy favorite and should win this game going away. I do think they’re talented and get why IU isn’t a massive favorite. I’m going to use the buy games to talk more about IU than their opponents.

I do, however, want to give some ideas on what I want to see from IU in this game. Lots has stayed the same but lots has also changed in terms of personnel.

Offense:

I want to see the chemistry built up between Fernando Mendoza and his WR/TE corps. On paper, IU is loaded. They’re bringing back two of the better WR’s in the league in Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt, but they also “added” a healthy EJ Williams along with Cal transfer Jonathan Brady, App State transfer Makai Jackson.

What does the chemistry look like between Mendoza (or his back up brother Alberto) and the young guys like Lebron Bond, Charlie Becker and Davion Chandler?

How are transfer TE’s Holden Staes (Tennessee) and Riley Nowakowski (Wisconsin) used? Will they be used together? Will IU bring in elite blocking TE James Bomba as a de facto OL and run a bunch of 12 personnel? Do we see Nowakowski in the backfield?

IU should be able to throw it around without giving up a ton in the playbook and I want to see how the OL holds up against smaller, quicker OL.

Speaking of the OL, how do they look blocking for Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black and Lee Beebe? I wrote that I think Kaelon Black is going to get a bunch of touches this year and I stand by that, but how does the backfield carry ratio break down? I thought it would be about 40-35-25 (in the order above).

Do we see the screen game become a bigger focus this year? Both Beebe and Hemby are really good at catching the ball out of the backfield so I wonder how they throw those types of wrinkles in.

My main thing with the offense is that I want to see them come out and take care of business. I think they will but I need to see what it looks like against another team before I fully believe what I wrote about how good the offense could be in the off season.

Defense:

I think IU’s DL and secondary will dominate this game. I know I picked ODU to score two TD’s but I also think one could be a late score with IU trying out new combinations all over the field.

I think this DL has a chance to be really good. They don’t have the beef with CJ West having moved onto the NFL, but Hosea Wheeler, Dominique Ratcliff, Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino form a deep core with elite penetrating ability but also the tools to stop the run.

The last change I made on my depth chart was moving Kellen Wyatt ahead of Stephen Daley. I really like Daley but it seems like the staff is also really high on Wyatt. He got a ton of talk in the Big Ten Network IU preview and clearly had the eye of the commentators. IU is going to need one or both to step up opposite all everything DE Mikail Kamara…Which one does first?

How much playing time does Daniel Ndukwe get? The ultra athletic, true sophomore, was one of three guys in the ’24 HS class to not use their redshirt (along with Charlie Becker and Mario Landino)…What is his role? I expect big things from him and predicted 5+ sacks in my BOLD PREDICTIONS article last week.

In the secondary, I’m super excited to see the four CB’s this team has. Obviously D’Angelo Ponds is the big name but Jamari Sharpe, Ryland Gandy and Amariyun Knighton are no slouches either. I expect to see them give ODU QB Colton Joseph fits trying to find open WR’s.

Who do we see and where at Safety? Amare Ferrell has the look of an NFL talent and is a no doubt starter. It will be interesting to see where true Freshman 4* Byron Baldwin is going going to slot in. Getting him reps at Rover where he’s close to the LOS is probably ideal but Rover is also the ideal spot for run stuffing NC State transfer Devan Boykin. Boykin missed all of ’24 with injury…He’s back and looking to build on a good ’23. As of this writing, we’re waiting on Louis Moore and the NCAA to resolve their case. If he’s granted eligibility, how does he look in his return to IU from Ole Miss?

I asked a ton of questions about the safety room but most of those are around who plays because they have 4-5 guys (if you include 5th year Sr. Bryson Bonds) who should all be in the rotation. Four of them have a ton of experience and the other (Baldwin) has an elite pedigree and played a national schedule his senior year.

The biggest question mark for me is the LB’s. It’s more depth related than talent related. Aidan Fisher is elite. He’s the QB of the defense. Everything runs through him and will again this year.

I love Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy. IU was *elite* against the run because Fisher, Hardy, Jones and (departed) Jailin Walker cleaned everything up. But how do they look in pass coverage? Walker was by far their best cover backer and the other three were bad based on my eye test and the PFF grades.

They’re going to have their hands full in this one regardless of how good IU’s DL plays because ODU QB Colton Joseph is a very good runner. Indiana struggled to contain some athletic QB’s last year. Northwestern’s Jack Lausch gave IU fits for most of that game until he needed to make throws to keep his team in it. Same with MSU QB Aidan Chiles. I think Fisher and Hardy lock Joseph down and force him to beat them through the air.

Special Teams:

I normally don’t really preview much with them but, outside of Nico Radicic, the guys are all new. I want to see touchbacks on kick offs for KOS Brendan Franke.

Was told by a former IU specialist on X in regards to new Aussie P Mitch McCarthy, “I think IU fans will be pleased in his style of punting. Very different from years past and should yield lots of fair catches. More traditional ‘Aussie Style’ rollout guy.”

Finally, how does the operation look with LS Mark Langston on punts and FG’s? I’ve heard he’s one of the best in the country so I’m excited to see.

Let’s get a win and stay healthy… #PackTheRock