IUFB Bold Predictions – Defense

I had to do a bold predictions article for both sides of the ball this year because of how many guys left from last years CFP team. Lots of guys returning, but also lots of guys potentially getting their first taste of major playing time. I’ll be doing each position group and today we’re focusing on defense.

I will be using some advanced or PFF stats in these for positions like OL and DL because it’s hard to quantify what they do without using a grade. You may say “DL?”, well, well, this is where things like pressures and “stops” become more relevant in coming up with how efficient a player is being with their snaps.

Prediction #1: As a team, IU will finish above 300 total pressures

Last year, IU finished with 284 total pressures in 13 games. Mikail Kamara led the nation with 68 by himself, two ahead of third overall pick Abdul Carter (Penn State) who played 16 total games to Kamara’s 13.

Kamara may not have come close to the sack record at IU but he had 9 more pressures than any player coming back in college football.

That said, IU lost a lot of production up front. They’re going to have to replace 134 total pressures in the DL and LB room alone. But I still think they can beat the number from last year.

With Kamara moving over to Lanell Carr‘s “Stud” spot, I think he’s going to be freed up to rush the weak side more, even if he has to cover in the flat on some play designs by DC Bryant Haines. I’m not saying Kamara will top his absurd 68 pressures, but I think he’ll be above 60 which is still going to be near the top of college football.

As for the rest of them…CJ West, Marcus Burris and James Carpenter had 70 total pressures. While Tyrique Tucker returns to that group, I think the quartet inside of Tucker, Hosea Wheeler, Mario Landino and Dominique Ratcliff is going to be tough for opposing offenses to keep out of the backfield.

I also think the spring portal additions of Stephen Daley (35 pressures at Kent State) and Kellen Wyatt (14 pressures as a LB at Maryland) are flat out better than Lanell Carr. I liked Carr and thought he played well last year but I think he was kind of miscast in his roll as the Stud. With Kamara moving to Stud, Daley and Wyatt have a chance to show what they can do and I’m particularly excited about Daley.

That brings me to LB. Can Rolijah Hardy (3) and Isiah Jones (4) make up for the 24 pressures that speedy WLB Jailin Walker had? I think they can come close, especially since a lot of the burden will be on All American LB Aidan Fisher.

Prediction #2: Jamari Sharpe leads IU in PBU’s

Sharpe had 5 pass break ups in just 220 snaps last year as teams went away from testing All American CB D’Angelo Ponds (7 PBU’s) after awhile. Teams seem to respect now transferred CB Jamier Johnson (3) more but the second Sharpe came in, teams went after him and he responded.

I think transfers Amariyun Knighton and Ryland Gandy are going to rotate in but, as I’ve been saying since the start of the Spring, Sharpe has the best pure physical tools of any CB on the roster for IU. He’s long (6’1) and was known as a guy with track speed when he committed to Tom Allen four years ago.

At times, he’s looked like an athlete trying to play CB. I’m very happy he stuck it out at IU and think this is the year he turns that talent into full on production.

Prediction #3: Rolijah Hardy finishes within 3 “Stops” of Aidan Fisher

Stops is a stat defined by PFF as “tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense”. Hardy had 14 last year in 170 snaps. By all accounts, he’s the starter opposite Fisher at LB and I think he goes off this year. Fisher had 47 stops and Jailin Walker finished with 36 in ’24. I think Hardy beats Walker’s total and the two LB’s have a field day against the run.

Side note: I am a bit nervous about the pass coverage from the LB spot. Jailin Walker was pretty good (71.2 PFF Coverage Grade) but everyone else was below Isaiah Jones’ middling 68.6. IU was vulnerable to TE’s last year. Hardy, Fisher and Jones are simply going to have to be flat out better in coverage for this defense to reach its potential…

I think they can, but they need to show it first.

Prediction #4: Hosea Wheeler and Dominique Ratcliff combine for 50 “Stops”

I really think that Wheeler and Ratcliff have great seasons. Both are coming from smaller schools (WKU and Texas State) but both were beasts on the field and clearly too good for the G5 level.

CJ West and James Carpenter combined for 44 Stops. They were flat out awesome and them eating up blocks freed up others to make plays.

I think that’s really what makes this bold. Yes, Ratcliff and Wheeler are going to be playing a lot of snaps but I think they can recreate the success from West and Carpenter as defenses are keying on Daley and Kamara on the outside.

Prediction #5: Byron Baldwin Jr. plays 350+ snaps as a true freshman

I really think this kid is a stud and forces his way into playing. I love Louis Moore and am excited he’s back at IU for his final go around but Baldwin, to me, is the back up at both safety spots.

Shawn Asbury and Amare Ferrell combined to play an absurd 1450+ snaps last year. Ideally, you don’t want Ferrell and Moore doing that again and you shouldn’t have to with Baldwin knocking on the door.

Baldwin is in a very similar situation to Amare Ferrell during his freshman year. Ferrell forced his way into the lineup as a freshman by being super athletic with power 2 size and didn’t red shirt. The difference is that Ferrell was a high 3* and Baldwin was one of the top safety recruits in the nation. It also helps that he and Ferrell (6’2, 204) are basically the same size his junior year as Baldwin is entering fall camp (6’2, 194).

Honestly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Baldwin play his way into a starting role by the end of the season and this prediction looks low. He’s that good.

Prediction #6: Devan Boykin finishes above a 75.0 PFF Defensive Grade

I have Boykin written in pen at the Rover position and he seems like an afterthought given all the other portal additions and returners to this defense. But I haven’t forgotten about him.

Last year, Terry Jones did a great job in the second half of the season after taking over for Josh Sanguinetti during/after the Northwestern game. I think the idea was to get the best guys on the field but Sanguinetti was much more a FS type than a guy who ever looked comfortable coming up into the box to play against the run.

Jones played relatively well by my eye test and his 71.2 overall defensive grade. He had a critical forced fumble in the Michigan game where he would have had a massive fumble recovery had Michigan QB Davis Warren not horse collar tackled him…but that’s a story for another day.

Back to this season…Boykin missed all of ’24 recovering from a knee injury at NC State but finished ’23 with a 71.3 overall defensive grade, along with elite grades against the run (90.5) and tackling (86.1). By all accounts, he’s healthy and ready to hit people.

He needs to work on his coverage skills but this is a prototypical in the box guy at 5’10, 195 who loves to hit and is a sure tackler. I think Haines and co. put him in a good position to better his count stats and PFF numbers from two years ago and play well in ’25.

DEEP Prediction: DE Daniel Ndukwe finishes with 5+ Sacks

I have Ndukwe in my two deep so I guess it isn’t that deep, but he’s also backing up a guy in Mikail Kamara who played an absurd 671 snaps as a pass rushing DE.

I think Ndukwe takes the next step after being a special teams wiz last year when he blocked two punts. He’s a super athletic 6’3, 244 guy with a good first move and closing speed.

If he’s learned anything backing up Kamara, I’m sure it’s more pass rushing moves and how to use the stunts that Kamara used so skillfully last year to get in the QB’s face on a wild 10%+ of the snaps he played.

I also wanted to mention that I really think IU is much deeper on the edge in ’25. I expect there to be much more of a rotation where Kamara and Daley see the bulk of the snaps but we see Ndukwe and Wyatt rotate in more than the back ups last year. This should keep the top two fresh and I don’t think you’re losing as much this year as you were last year if Kamara and Daley aren’t on the field…Depth, people!