Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections (November 18th)

Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

Every week brings a shifting in the standings and the potential bowl destinations. This article is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Rather, it is an attempt to project how things will finish. This is my best guess at the bowl game assignments for the Big Ten and of course, the Indiana Hoosiers (if there is to be one).

-As of November 18, 2018 -

College Football Playoff Semifinal

Michigan vs. Alabama – Cotton Bowl (original projection: Michigan vs. Alabama)

It is difficult to envision Ohio State beating the Michigan Wolverines after watching the Bucks defense for much of this season. Something just seems off with Ohio State. If Michigan goes 11-1, wins the Big Ten Championship game to reach 12-1 and has only a loss to Notre Dame in South Bend (in the opening week of the season) on their resume, they’ll go to the playoff and be selected as the #4 seed. I have Clemson and Notre Dame as the other matchup.

Rose Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Ohio State vs. Washington State (original projection: OSU vs. WSU)

I am now projecting the Buckeyes to go 10-2 and be runner-up in the East division. The Rose Bowl would be thrilled to have the Buckeyes back in Pasadena as the highest ranked non-playoff team in the conference. Their opponent is currently projected as the Washington State Cougars, a team that is having a very impressive campaign and currently sit at 10-1. The fate of the PAC-12 North comes down to the Apple Cup.

Citrus Bowl (B1G vs. ACC or SEC) – Northwestern Wildcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats (original projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky)

-The Citrus Bowl has a contract to take five different teams in six years if at all possible. That means no Michigan or Minnesota. The opponent is to be the top possible ranked team from the SEC or ACC. Northwestern’s win at Iowa means they are the winners of the West. They added a win at Minnesota for good measure. Despite being 7-4 overall, the Wildcats are 7-1 in the conference and have earned their division title. The SEC will be really interesting as I have Alabama sitting at 13-0 and the #1 seed and then Georgia being 11-2 and the SEC East champion and going to the Sugar Bowl. I think LSU could definitely end up being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl or the Peach Bowl. That leaves me with the Kentucky Wildcats.

Outback Bowl (B1G vs. SEC) – Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas A&M Aggies (original projection: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M)

-Again, this bowl would prefer to have five different teams in six years if at all possible. That means no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern if possible. This would be viewed as a disappointment for PSU fans but it’s still a solid season. Texas A&M is having a decent season in Jimbo Fisher’s debut campaign and the SEC field has already been quite picked over.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Washington (original projection: Penn State vs. USC)

-Another bowl that would prefer to have five different teams in six years. So, no Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin or MSU. We are now firmly in question mark territory. Most of the teams I choosing between have either six or seven wins and this becomes an exercise in simply choosing slots that each team is eligible to go to.  Iowa has not been to the Holiday Bowl recently and they would finish at 8-4 with a win over Nebraska on Black Friday.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (B1G vs. SEC) – Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State (original projection: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State)

-No Penn State or Iowa if possible. This is a rotation between the Music City Bowl and the Gator Bowl and the B1G played in Music City in 2016 and 2017 so this year will very likely be the B1G in the Gator Bowl. I wrote a few weeks ago that the matchup between Purdue and Wisconsin would likely decide the landing spot for both the Boilers and the Badgers. Well, Wisconsin won at Purdue in triple overtime and they now have a matchup against Minnesota with a chance to finish 8-4. They would be rewarded with a trip to Florida to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs. This game would feature roughly 15 total passes.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (B1G vs. ACC) – Purdue vs. Virginia (original projection: Purdue vs. Virginia)

The Pinstripe Bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years. That means no Iowa, NW, PSU or IU if possible. I think a win for the Boilermakers in the Old Oaken Bucket game sends them to New York City to play the Virginia Cavaliers. I expect Purdue to have a new coach on the sidelines prior to this game taking place.

Redbox Bowl (B1G vs. PAC-12) – Michigan State vs. Arizona State (original projection: Northwestern vs. Colorado)

Again, they want five teams in six years so no PU, IU, MD or Nebraska. Michigan State’s offense has fallen off of a cliff and they struggled to reach double-digits. That has dropped them way down in our projections. “Close” doesn’t cut it and they likely end up at 7-5. Despite the loss to Oregon, I’m slotting Arizona State into this bowl game as Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils winning close games in his debut season.

Quick Lane Bowl (B1G vs. ACC or Conditional MAC tie-in) – Minnesota vs. Eastern Michigan (original projection: Indiana vs. Eastern Michigan)

Entering the final week of the season, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland all have five victories. The Gophers play the Badgers, Maryland travels to Penn State and Indiana plays Purdue. A win for the Hoosiers would put them into the Quick Lane Bowl. The ACC has a whole lot of bowl tie-ins but the conference is somewhat down this season and I don’t think they’ll fill out their bowl obligations. 

SERVPRO First Responders Bowl (B1G vs. C-USA) – Indiana vs. UAB (original projection: Maryland vs. UAB)

B1G has not played in this bowl since 2014 so they seem likely to be in it this year instead of the Armed Forces Bowl. However, I do not see the Big Ten filling this bowl slot with an eligible team. If a 5-7 team is selected, it could be Minnesota (although I think it must be said, no additional Big Ten squad deserves this slot). In short, I don’t see a Big Ten team being in this game but if the bowl does call on the conference for a five-win team, Indiana might slide in.