@hoosiers94 Your Door Knob™️ nickname has really lit a fire under some asses. Shame on you.
@hoosiers94 Your Door Knob™️ nickname has really lit a fire under some asses. Shame on you.
the softness. Sticks and stones. And I didn't even call them a name. Can't even have a little fun around here without some tissue getting their feelings hurt about a nickname for a coach who they've never met and have no attachment to. Yeesh. As if I've personally insulted their mother or something
Tourney chances back to 30% (after USC game)
Tourney chances 40%. Its looking like @OSU could determine their fate. Must wins vs Oregon and Minnesota. Cannot get blown out again by MSU at home. UM and PU likely losses.
UM? Have to beat NW. Beat NW, Oregon, and Minny and we're likely in. Get a win against MSU or OSU and it's a lock.
Tourney chances back to 30% (after USC game)
Tourney chances 40%. Its looking like @OSU could determine their fate. Must wins vs Oregon and Minnesota. Cannot get blown out again by MSU at home. UM and PU likely losses.
UM? Have to beat NW. Beat NW, Oregon, and Minny and we're likely in. Get a win against MSU or OSU and it's a lock.
Not UM, Illinois. My mistake.
Yes, have to beat OSU, NW, Minny, and Oregon. Then its a near lock, even with losses to Illinois, Purdue and MSU.
But lose 4 and....well, 40% chance.
A 10-10 finish would likely leave them out, because IU has zero good wins out of conference and it is looking like they would finish pretty far down the standings. 10th place 10-10 will not get them in unless they get a win over Illinois or MSU. If they beat PU on the road, that would help, but it would likely mean Purdue will fall to someone else as well, and that takes the luster off that first win.
So 11-9 is necessary for a good chance, and requires winning at OSU in a game that will be meaningful to OSU. On top of that OSU has a tough schedule, so by the time they play Indiana they are gonna be fueled.
I say IU has a 40% chance to make the tourney as of today.
Better chance we beat MSU at home than win at OSU imo.
Tourney chances back to 30% (after USC game)
Tourney chances 40%. Its looking like @OSU could determine their fate. Must wins vs Oregon and Minnesota. Cannot get blown out again by MSU at home. UM and PU likely losses.
UM? Have to beat NW. Beat NW, Oregon, and Minny and we're likely in. Get a win against MSU or OSU and it's a lock.
Not UM, Illinois. My mistake.
Yes, have to beat OSU, NW, Minny, and Oregon. Then its a near lock, even with losses to Illinois, Purdue and MSU.
But lose 4 and....well, 40% chance.
A 10-10 finish would likely leave them out, because IU has zero good wins out of conference and it is looking like they would finish pretty far down the standings. 10th place 10-10 will not get them in unless they get a win over Illinois or MSU. If they beat PU on the road, that would help, but it would likely mean Purdue will fall to someone else as well, and that takes the luster off that first win.
So 11-9 is necessary for a good chance, and requires winning at OSU in a game that will be meaningful to OSU. On top of that OSU has a tough schedule, so by the time they play Indiana they are gonna be fueled.
I say IU has a 40% chance to make the tourney as of today.
Standings don't really matter. 10-10 is a near lock. The metrics are too solid for them to be left out. The bubble is not strong enough. The teams in that area have worse resumes and less quality wins than we do.
We're the 7th highest B1G team in the NET. Finishing 10-10 pretty much ensures the metrics would not significantly change enough to get left out.
Tourney chances back to 30% (after USC game)
Tourney chances 40%. Its looking like @OSU could determine their fate. Must wins vs Oregon and Minnesota. Cannot get blown out again by MSU at home. UM and PU likely losses.
UM? Have to beat NW. Beat NW, Oregon, and Minny and we're likely in. Get a win against MSU or OSU and it's a lock.
Not UM, Illinois. My mistake.
Yes, have to beat OSU, NW, Minny, and Oregon. Then its a near lock, even with losses to Illinois, Purdue and MSU.
But lose 4 and....well, 40% chance.
A 10-10 finish would likely leave them out, because IU has zero good wins out of conference and it is looking like they would finish pretty far down the standings. 10th place 10-10 will not get them in unless they get a win over Illinois or MSU. If they beat PU on the road, that would help, but it would likely mean Purdue will fall to someone else as well, and that takes the luster off that first win.
So 11-9 is necessary for a good chance, and requires winning at OSU in a game that will be meaningful to OSU. On top of that OSU has a tough schedule, so by the time they play Indiana they are gonna be fueled.
I say IU has a 40% chance to make the tourney as of today.
Kenpom and Torvik has IU in the 80+ to 90- percentile to make tourney.Which metrics are you using to be 50 percent under their analytics based projection.
@scam-likely 4 of last 9 Big Ten 10-10 teams made the dance.
Yeah, but the actual record in a vacuum isn't something you can go by. its not criteria, ignores their metrics and league strength (and the extremely unbalanced schedule nowadays).
IU was 10-10 last year but their net was 52 so they had 0 shot.
The year prior, you had IU/Iowa at 10-10 and the both missed but again:
IU NET: 98 (0 shot, not even in the same universe)
Iowa NET: 62 (o shot)
The strength of the bubble in a given year also plays a big factor and it looks very week this year. If IU remains in the low 30s there's just not enough times to jump them unless there's a crazy amount of bid stealers from conference tournaments.
Beat Oregon, Minnesota and Northwestern plus win one more and IU makes the tourney. The selection committee has demonstrated bias in the past, so I don't have confidence in the decisions they make. Last year, mediocre North Carolina earned an NCAA berth for their 1-12 Quad 1 record and Quad 3 loss to Stanford. IU was 4-13 against Quad 1 and West Virginia finished 6-10. Neither Indiana or West Virginia lost to a Quad 3.
Beating Illinois at their place and with their size seems highly unlikely. Got to upset one of MSU, Purdue or Ohio State and Indiana controls its destiny. Let's get it done Hoosiers, so we can spend selection Sunday finding out where IU plays instead of hoping to see if they get a tourney bid.
I agree.. win 4 more and we are securely in and asking the questions: who, where and when , instead of ,did we?
Beat Oregon, Minnesota and Northwestern plus win one more and IU makes the tourney. The selection committee has demonstrated bias in the past, so I don't have confidence in the decisions they make. Last year, mediocre North Carolina earned an NCAA berth for their 1-12 Quad 1 record and Quad 3 loss to Stanford. IU was 4-13 against Quad 1 and West Virginia finished 6-10. Neither Indiana or West Virginia lost to a Quad 3.
Beating Illinois at their place and with their size seems highly unlikely. Got to upset one of MSU, Purdue or Ohio State and Indiana controls its destiny. Let's get it done Hoosiers, so we can spend selection Sunday finding out where IU plays instead of hoping to see if they get a tourney bid.
Again, IU's NET was in the 50s last year. They had 0 shot. Woodson had no understanding of the metrics. UNC was in the low 30s despite not having many Q1 wins they were 9-0 Q2 with 5 of those being high Q2 while IU had 1 high Q2 to go with their Q1s.
You can't look at any 1 specific data point. IU had no chance last year, while UNC's overall metrics kept them in.
@hoosiers94 I agree, 4 is probably the "Lock" number. I think its probably likely we get in at 10-10, as well, probably not even a play in game. I think 9-11, if we stay around 30 in the metrics rankings, could get us in a play in game even. Arkansas made it last year with a sub .500 conference record. The committee has demonstrated that they often don't care about conference records, standings, etc...
So... Beat Oregon, NW, and Minny... and we should be in. Add a 4th win to those, and we will be in, probably 7 ish seed. Win 5 or more, and the seeding starts to improve up to the 5/6 range. Win only 2... if we play metrics friendly basketball otherwise, and I still think play in game is very possible.
seeing Oregon give Purdue a game , NW giving Iowa a game ... need to bring our A game for them. Can't let them trip us up.
@hoosiers94 All 3 of those home games that are easier, on paper, are very "losable". This IU team's margin for error is way too small for any of these games to be guaranteed wins. They've done a pretty good job of taking care of these sorts of games, at home, this year. I have a lot more confidence in CDD and this group, to win all 3 of them, than I would have any of the last 8 IU teams. But that obviously doesn't mean they will. As you point out, if those teams are capable of nearly beating PU and Iowa at their place, then they're more than capable of doing the same to IU.
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