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Tournament chances after back to back blowout losses ..

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Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

As of this morning CBS and Jerry Palm no longer have us in the dance.  Last week we were a 9 seed.  Need 3 wins and a BTT win I think to get in.  


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Topic starter Posted : 02/22/2026 1:48 pm
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Cavanagh
(@cavanagh)
Noble Member

If we lose to msu and OSU we are screwed.  They both have size and physicality that I’m  worried about. 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 2:55 pm
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ams66's avatar
(@ams66)
Honorable Member

OSU was in the game at MSU today until the final 0:15 in a low-scoring affair. Not liking our chances against either of them but if we can hit some 3s we might have a chance.


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Posted : 02/22/2026 4:25 pm
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @hoosiers94

As of this morning CBS and Jerry Palm no longer have us in the dance.  Last week we were a 9 seed.  Need 3 wins and a BTT win I think to get in.  

I'm not sure the "house money" people factored in the potential for two shellackings. All IU had to do was be somewhat competitive in both games to not lose ground, but the Hoosiers pulled a "Woody Special." 

 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 5:18 pm
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dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Noble Member

Posted by: @cavanagh

If we lose to msu and OSU we are screwed.  They both have size and physicality that I’m  worried about. 

Grok says we're in and would likely avoid a play in game with just wins over NW and Minny and 3 more losses.  It's usually pretty accurate.

 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 6:24 pm
surjay
(@surjay)
Honorable Member

We probably don't need to do anything crazy to stay in BUT we need to stop getting blown out as that will continue to erode the metrics.

Minn has moved back to Q1 loss (and the upcoming game will be a potential Q2 win now).
Wisky will likely move into a Q1 win by the end of the season.

Our standing will give us an 'easy' game in the first round of the BIGT as well that we should win and it'd be a neutral Q2.  That all is likely more than enough to not get pushed out. The bubble is still super weak.


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:01 pm
GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @cavanagh

If we lose to msu and OSU we are screwed.  They both have size and physicality that I’m  worried about. 

Grok says we're in and would likely avoid a play in game with just wins over NW and Minny and 3 more losses.  It's usually pretty accurate.

 

Grok needs to recalibrate. No way even AI can justify 19-13 (10-11 counting BTT)--with only one ranked win--as worthy of a bid. If by some miracle IU gets a nod with that record, they'll be traveling to Dayton.

 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:03 pm
dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Noble Member

Posted by: @gthomas

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @cavanagh

If we lose to msu and OSU we are screwed.  They both have size and physicality that I’m  worried about. 

Grok says we're in and would likely avoid a play in game with just wins over NW and Minny and 3 more losses.  It's usually pretty accurate.

 

Grok needs to recalibrate. No way even AI can justify 19-13 (10-11 counting BTT)--with only one ranked win--as worthy of a bid. If by some miracle IU gets a nod with that record, they'll be traveling to Dayton.

 

Who are the other teams in the conversation that you think would push us out?  As was just said it's an incredibly weak bubble.  Remember that the Romeo team that was 8-12 would've made it in had they not lost to OSU who was also 8-12 and made it in in that BTT game.  Every year is different.

 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:08 pm
Cavanagh
(@cavanagh)
Noble Member

If we lose to OsU they should be in ahead of us.  Then you have to worry about bid stealers.  They aren’t factored in right now.  Miami of Ohio is gonna make it even if they don’t win the conference tourney.  If we don’t win one of those two and atleast 2 in the tourney I bet we miss it.  


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:14 pm
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @gthomas

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @cavanagh

If we lose to msu and OSU we are screwed.  They both have size and physicality that I’m  worried about. 

Grok says we're in and would likely avoid a play in game with just wins over NW and Minny and 3 more losses.  It's usually pretty accurate.

 

Grok needs to recalibrate. No way even AI can justify 19-13 (10-11 counting BTT)--with only one ranked win--as worthy of a bid. If by some miracle IU gets a nod with that record, they'll be traveling to Dayton.

 

Who are the other teams in the conversation that you think would push us out?  As was just said it's an incredibly weak bubble.  Remember that the Romeo team that was 8-12 would've made it in had they not lost to OSU who was also 8-12 and made it in in that BTT game.  Every year is different.

 

I don't pay attention to the Bubble until it's time to pay attention to the Bubble, so I admit that's a blind spot. But if the focus is to hand out at-large bids to the best 37 non-AQs, 19-13 IU wouldn't be one of those ... imo.

If this team has any cajones at all, they'll get to 11 wins so everyone can breathe easier. Beating NW/Minn and splitting MSU/OSU shouldn't be a big ask.


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:18 pm
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dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Noble Member

And OSU likely isn't getting in ahead of us even if they beat us.

https://twitter.com/i/status/2025702519062560926


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:24 pm
Ge-off
(@ge-off)
Estimable Member

@gthomas I think IU needs all four games.  That would put us back in the 9 spot-


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:26 pm
surjay
(@surjay)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @cavanagh

If we lose to OsU they should be in ahead of us.  Then you have to worry about bid stealers.  They aren’t factored in right now.  Miami of Ohio is gonna make it even if they don’t win the conference tourney.  If we don’t win one of those two and atleast 2 in the tourney I bet we miss it.  

OSU has work to do. No Q1 wins and its unlikely they get any with their remaining schedule.

 


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Posted : 02/22/2026 7:30 pm
IUNorth
(@iunorth)
Noble Member

9-11 is the minimum B10 regular season record to get an at large, in my opinion.

Once that is established:

3 or more wins from either regular season, and/or BTT, and we'll get an at large.  Even if its 1 regular season, and 2 BTT wins.

2 wins and I think it gets pretty dicey, and could get bumped from bid stealers.  

1 win and we don't make it.  


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Posted : 02/23/2026 11:25 am
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GThomas's avatar
(@gthomas)
Noble Member

I wouldn't sleep on Minnesota. If the Gophers can beat IU once, they can do it again ... even in AH. I don't think the Hoosiers will lose, but it's not a gimme like NW. 


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Posted : 02/23/2026 7:47 pm
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