An intriguing number. Thoughts?
IU has really not given any indication they can hang with the upper tier of the Big Ten. However, Purdue has been struggling and IU played well on Friday. The game is at home and the students are back, so there will be a home court advantage. I thought 4.5 was a better number.
That's it? 5.5?
Bettors are really counting on that 'rivalry game' thing keeping it closer. Maybe, but doubt it. Not sure our squad really cares about Purdue more than any other Big Ten team. Not like they've been around for a few years to absorb that.
I hope we hang, that will be awesome. Get hot and win!
Good point on home fans. The players should get the idea early.
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@openwheel Yeah the entire team and the coaching staff are all brand new to this rivalry. It will mainly be the fans that contributes any real energy to the game in that regard. Sisley might have some sense of it being sort of a local.
@openwheel Yeah the entire team and the coaching staff are all brand new to this rivalry. It will mainly be the fans that contributes any real energy to the game in that regard. Sisley might have some sense of it being sort of a local.
All these players are from out of state except one. It is just another game to them its not like the days of damon bailey when 95% of the roster was from indiana and illinois.
My thoughts on tonight's game: Purdue being favored by only 4.5/5.5 points is probably quite a bit of value that's coming from the Boilermakers losing two straight. I would never, EVER bet on Purdue to win anything and especially not against IU but I do have a hard time seeing IU keeping this one that close.
-Who guards Braden Smith and can they do it without getting in instant foul trouble? I assume Conor Enright will get the early nod and I'd be very surprised if he made it eight minutes without getting a pair of fouls. Conerway will certainly see some extended time on him as well and I do think Conerway could give Smith some issues if Tayton is consistently attacking the basket and getting penetration but I worry about foul trouble with whoever is guarding Purdue's engine.
-How does Indiana defend TKR? IU can't really put Alexis or Bailey on him because that would leave Tucker DeVries trying to defend and rebound Cluff. That leaves Tucker DeVries and I have yet to see that DeVries can defend a skilled interior player without getting in foul trouble early, spending most of the first half on the bench and then either letting TKR score to avoid fouling OR coming back in the game after long periods of sitting and never getting in rhythm. Trent Sisley has the body type that could handle the assignment but he's been "foul happy" against far less skilled players than TKR so I don't love that matchup either. Kaufman-Renn has struggled recently but I don't like the defensive matchups at all.
-Purdue is overhelping on defense and it's leading to open looks from the perimeter. If that continues tonight, IU has to attack off the dribble and kick it out for open threes that they must knock down.
-Fletcher Loyer is not shooting well right now. He could be due for a big game OR keep on struggling and IU cannot bail him out. Loyer leads Purdue in free throw attempts and he makes better than 90 percent of his attempts. When he drives, he does it to get fouled and IU cannot give the Boilers those free points.
-IU needs Nick Dorn's shooting on the floor but he has to defend better...I don't think he can be a "good" defender but he has to be better than the turnstile he was against Rutgers.
I just don't see us keeping it that close for 40. Maybe for a half.
Boilers 90
Hoosiers 72
Cluff, Jacobsen, and TKR combine to score a shit load of points and draw a shit load of fouls. But ... IU has a great shooting night and Purdue falls.
I'd feel better about the +4.5 / +5 number if Purdue had beaten Illinois on Saturday. Me thinks a veteran Purdue team will come out to Bloomington with much intensity after losing 2 in a row. IU has yet to play a good team with 40 minutes of quality basketball. Is tonight the game when they get it done? I am not confident in the Hoosiers making it happen.
Hoosiers are going to need to make a load of 3's to get the job done.
I just don't see us keeping it that close for 40. Maybe for a half.
Boilers 90
Hoosiers 72
That is pretty much where I am at IU can probably keep it close for like 25 minutes but will likely wear out and get in foul trouble.
@uncleter Find yourself some never daunted, and make yourself some money. 😉
I don't know why, but I'm feeling a win tonight - if Nick Dorn starts. Again, I don't know why, but I think Dorn will be the key tonight and he'll hit at least five threes, freeing up Wilkerson and, to a lesser extent, fatso. But the biggest beneficiary will be Conerway, who I envision having open lanes to attack given the shooting of Dorn and Wilkerson. I also look for Enright to have a nice game as the grit of a rivalry game plays perfectly to his game. Bailey and Alexis will have just enough to keep Purdue's Clouff and TKR from going crazy. I'm hopeful Loyer's shooting slump continues tonight.
IU 84-80.
95% wishful thinking on my part, but if it happens, I think it will happen due to what I've described above.
Wilkerson 23; Dorn 18; Conerway 15; fatso 12; Bailey 7; Enright 5, Alexis 4
Me thinks a veteran Purdue team will come out to Bloomington with much intensity after losing 2 in a row.
And also after letting a Freshman set the all-time visitors individual scoring record in their gym. 🤣
Purdue actually isn't a terrible matchup. They aren't very good defensively on the perimeter, so we should be able to run our offense (if we are focused on actually running it)... and while Cluff and TKR are obviously gonna pose some issues, neither are overly long, or athletic... so I don't see them completely dominating us.
But Purdue will likely get us in foul trouble. And they're just a markedly better basketball team, right now. And I suspect when we have our dry spells, tonight, and times when we lose focus defensively, they'll steam roll us during those times enough to push leads out a little bit.
I'll be surprised if we don't lose by double digits, if not 20+. But I think the game will be pretty competitive, for the most part.
IF...IF...IF, the fellas can resolve to move the ball and themselves offensively, all game... and if we can stay engaged with Braden Smith, and not give up open looks from the perimeter... I think we can beat them. But it'd need to basically be the entire game... and we haven't seen that from them yet this year.
I'm gonna say relatively high scoring. Probably 88-73, Purdue, type of game. IU has it within shouting distance fairly late, but can't get enough stops.
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