Week after week, we see updated "projected playoff rankings" which are anything but a prediction.
What they are, is an attempt to say what the playoffs would be if they started tomorrow.
One look at USC at Oregon, Georgia Tech vs Georgia, or Texas vs Texas A&M, and it is clear that the season will come down to key games and outcomes that cannot possibly keep things the way they have them today.
UM vs. OSU in Ann Arbor?
Texas beating A&M and getting back into the playoff with 3 losses?
OU loses to a pesky LSU?
Or how about Ga. Tech over UGA in a big upset?
How is this thing going to go down?
Texas is too far back in the rankings to make it back in, even with an A&M win. They would need to jump 7 schools, and several of the schools ahead of them (and one behind it) also have opportunities to knock off teams in the same range as A&M.
I kinda want that #3 seed. I think I’d prefer that over the #1 seed.
There is some probability that Oregon is the second or third best team in the country.
God have mercy on the soul of the quarterfinal bye team that draws Oregon if that is the case.
@middawg If we get a bye, hope it’s not us. Not an ideal match-up (they’re really good and there is the “payback” aspect) and I want a non-B1G opponent.
Week after week, we see updated "projected playoff rankings" which are anything but a prediction.
What they are, is an attempt to say what the playoffs would be if they started tomorrow.
One look at USC at Oregon, Georgia Tech vs Georgia, or Texas vs Texas A&M, and it is clear that the season will come down to key games and outcomes that cannot possibly keep things the way they have them today.
UM vs. OSU in Ann Arbor?
Texas beating A&M and getting back into the playoff with 3 losses?
OU loses to a pesky LSU?
Or how about Ga. Tech over UGA in a big upset?
How is this thing going to go down?
i’ll bite (with questions)
Oregon loses to USC
Mich over OSU
(would that mean only 2 BT teams in the playoff, and what would that mean for the B10 title game?)
GA wins out, gets the 3 seed after A&M goes down to TX. (would that be the case?)
"Week after week, we see updated “projected playoff rankings” which are anything but a prediction."
Asking the good old boys in the smoke filled rooms to use probabilities to make an actual model and from that a bracket prediction is probably too much. Plus it would really piss off some fanbases, LOL .
Besides, we can see reasonable predictions by checking the gambling sites.
@gerdis Lots of people in the B10 offices will be rooting for USC and Michigan in the coming weeks, I would guess. Oregon and OSU winning out = virtually guaranteed only 3 teams make CFP. USC and Michigan winning out could = 5 teams. That's a lot of exposure and cheddar for the conference.
As long as IU is healthy, I dont care who our bracket is. We will roll them.
If we are still banged up, give me Ole Miss, Alabama or Oklahoma, we cant get bounced right away again.
"Week after week, we see updated “projected playoff rankings” which are anything but a prediction."
Asking the good old boys in the smoke filled rooms to use probabilities to make an actual model and from that a bracket prediction is probably too much. Plus it would really piss off some fanbases, LOL .
Besides, we can see reasonable predictions by checking the gambling sites.
Why would anyone want the actual committee to PROJECT a bracket?
Writers. Bloggers. Sure. But the committee isn't dealing in hypotheticals.
The SEC bias is so obvious it is astounding. The best example may not be at the top of the rankings but down at #20. Tenn is still considered a ranked win for several SEC teams and yet Tenn has defeated teams with the following records: 3-7, 6-5, 3-7, 5-6, 2-8, 5-5, and 3-7. The only one with a record above .500 is E. Tenn State. How wrong is it that Illinois, Virginia, Tulane and others are right there with Tenn and yet those teams have wins against multiple teams above .500. Iowa, Washington, and even Penn State would stomp Tennessee this season. BIAS !!!
@gerdis Lots of people in the B10 offices will be rooting for USC and Michigan in the coming weeks, I would guess. Oregon and OSU winning out = virtually guaranteed only 3 teams make CFP. USC and Michigan winning out could = 5 teams. That's a lot of exposure and cheddar for the conference.
Michigan's not in the top 25, so they could only be a spoiler. TX is in the same situation.
I think only Oregon, Oklahoma & Bama are subject to displacement at this point.
Right now it looks like 5 SEC teams, 4 BT teams, ND, Tulane, 1 ACC team, 1 Big 12 team.
The easiest 'out' is if Auburn would beat Bama (#10 now). I think Bama's out if that happens. And it doesn't look like another SEC team would take that place.
Oklahoma (#8) would also probably be out if they lost to either #22 MO or LSU, both at home.
I'm not sure Ole Miss (#6) would be out even if they lose at Miss St. That would only be their second loss.
Oregon (#7) is trickier. They might survive a home loss to USC (#15) if they Washington at Washington a week later. If they beat USC and lose at Washington they also might survive. Similar to the Ole Miss situation.
If USC gets in, I would think it would be at Oregon's expense if neither Bama nor OK lose. USC would seem to have the edge at that point because of head to head and because Oregon's losses would both be at home while USC's losses would both be on the road.
In the unlikely event that BYU beats TT in the BIG 12 CG....man o man that would be a tough one, TT is 5th ranked with only 1 loss right now. Would they fall behind Bama (#10) with a CG loss? The committee doesn't like to punish CG losers.
I should have said 3 BT teams, not 4.
One other thing..........I don't know if GT beating Georgia would even change much. If they beat GA and then beat Virginia in the ACC championship game they'd just earn the ACC spot. If they beat GA then lost to Virginia, that would cause some problems, because you'd have a 2 loss GT team that beat GA to factor in.
I should have said 3 BT teams, not 4.
One other thing..........I don't know if GT beating Georgia would even change much. If they beat GA and then beat Virginia in the ACC championship game they'd just earn the ACC spot. If they beat GA then lost to Virginia, that would cause some problems, because you'd have a 2 loss GT team that beat GA to factor in.
With respect to all the 'crazy' scenarios....no single upset is likely to happen but the odds of SOMETHING happening to shake things up seems quite high.
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