1.  I think this year's team will probably answer that question.  As good a year as IU had last year...after the OSU and ND games, I'd probably have to have answered this question with a no.  The talent disparity versus those teams was pretty obvious.  I think THIS year's team is better suited though, and we don't have a single 5 star on our roster.  The Oregon game, and then closing out Iowa and PSU on the road, show that we can compete against better talent, in tough environments.  Now, can we compete against OSU, then maybe Georgia, Texas A&M, levels of talent?  If we show that we can, that answer will have to change.  

2.  I think we're in a time of rapid change in college football, yes.  I think IU will continue to get closer to the top programs, NIL budget wise.  Certainly still not anywhere close to the OSU's of the world.  But closing the gap a little bit.  And then I think the CFP will expand to 16 teams, very soon.  And we've already seen the SEC change how they're planning to schedule OOC and conference games.  I assume the B10 will follow suit, in some way.  If I'm Cignetti, and IU, I think its time for him to go big game hunting with the OOC schedule.  Assuming IU beats Purdue, and has a solid B10 championship/CFP showing, I think they would be an intriguing home and home for really anyone.  Obviously many of the top schools are already tied up, but I think he and Dolson should try to get a couple monster home and homes on the books, before the Notre Dame one happens in 4 years.  If I'm Dolson/Cig, I aim big, for huge name brands first.  A home and home against an emerging power house program, like Texas Tech, would be the ones I'd stay away from.  On the NIL side, I hope Cig just continues to do what he's currently doing...but uses the larger dollar amounts to build better depth, and if there are obvious NFL talents that he thinks fit his program, spend a little more than he has on singular players, to start adding those obvious NFL guys via the portal.  If I'm him, I stick with solid 3 and 4 star kids, largely, from the HS ranks, and work to develop them.

3.  Depends completely on who remains on the IU staff at the time Cignetti hangs it up.  If Cig and Dolson know that either Haines or Shanahan is the clear cut, best candidate to replace him.  Then start that process as soon as possible.  Especially if you know you're going to lose the other one anyways soon.  Hypothetically, if Shanahan is the obvious successor candidate... Give him Associate Head Coach additional title, give him big pay raise, etc... And obviously vice versa if Haines is the guy.  If both of those guys take Head Coaching jobs in the next couple years...and there isn't a clear cut successor when Cig retires.  Unfortunately, I think Dolson will have to try to recreate the Cig hire from outside the program.  Ideally though, one of the current main coordinators ends up being Cig's successor.  They've been through all this with him for many, many years.  And are a huge part of his success.  I'd love to keep that connection with either of them.

1) I think we can win with the right 3 and 4 star recruits.  Cigs excels at talent evaluation and finding players that are under-ranked.  When he hits, those players, especially as upperclassman, can be just as good as underclassman 5 stars.

2) No but I think other coaches/teams might start trying to copy his strategy more.  As IU's program prestige rises, hopefully it will make it easier for Cigs to get the players he wants but don't think his strategy changes much.  

3) Hopefully Cigs will have a coordinator that has been with the program for a few years that he has been able to mold into a good replacement.   If Haines and/or Shanahan leave, then hopefully it is years before Cig's retirement so that Cigs has time to bring in a replacement and get them up to speed before he retires.  Worst case is all 3 leaving/retiring in rapid succession.  I would use Cigs as an advisor of sorts and his opinions would hold great weight for the next hiring decision.

I think the most likely next stage in the Cignetti proving himself tour, will be him winning without Haines and/or Shanahan.  They've both been with him, pretty much his entire head coaching career.  And there are many that think coordinators and position coaches are just as important as the Head Coach.  I have no reason to think or believe either are itching to leave, other than just basic conventional and expected behaviors from highly successful people like them.  Usually, their personalities would lead to them wanting to be "the man"... and I'm sure Cig's path has been something they've admired.  I don't think either would leave for a different coordinator position, but we'll lose one or both of them soon to head coaching jobs, I'm sure.  It'll be interesting to see who Cig hires, and how the team does, without those 2 guys.

@bradstevens You write "Will this landscape [building with high-star guys] change in the near future and, if so, in what ways and how will that affect Cignetti's strategies. How does Indiana get out ahead of that?"

Forget stars and the ranking system.  Cignetti has.  He and his staff utilize their own player evaluation system, paying little attention to recruiting rankings and stars. He has said more than once that he's "much more into production than potential."  

He doesn't need to get out ahead of anything.  He's already charted his own highly successful course.  He might be the best evaluator and developer of talent in the college game. 

And it's way too soon to be concerned about what happens "when he's gone."  We've got him for many years.  I'm going to enjoy the ride. 

So a few questions/comments/things to think about. Regarding the thread title, I think of sustained success here as continuing every year as being in the hunt for a CFP berth at least, and a national title always being a possibility:

1.  Can you now build a team of mainly 3 star with a few 4 stars mixed in and win a national title as long as you get them older, after they’ve had a chance to prove what they could do at the college level a few years?  In other words, are upperclassmen who have been productive at lower level schools able to compete and win against 5* underclassmen?

The portal and NIL has changed everything. Can IU build a contender with their current recruiting classes? Yes, but it's much more expensive. IU's success has opened doors and there have been higher rated prospects on campus. IU should be able to land a few. However, getting a 4 or 5 star kid just because they are rated that isn't always the end all be all. Look at Wilson's 2014 class. Loaded with 4-star talent...didn't pan out.

The second part is, a five or four-star freshman is probably going to sit on the bench, especially if they play on the line. Is it smart to pay the price for a guy who will need a year or two to develop or go get a portal player who can produce right away?

If the answer is no, can Cignetti start landing some 5 stars?  How many are needed to win a national title? If the answer is yes, does IU just keep doing what it’s doing?

There are 33 5-star prospects in the 2026 class according to 247 Sports and 9 in the 2027 class (it's early), but landing multiple 5-star high school players is highly unlikely and expensive. Does IU need to recruit higher caliber players? Yes, but don't get wrapped up in five-stars. They do need to start moving from mid-3 star OL prospects to higher rated ones. 

2.  Will this landscape change in the near future, and if so, in what ways and how will that affect Cignetti’s strategies?  How does Indiana get out ahead of that?

I think IU has been lucky to have Scott Dolson as AD. They have been ahead of the game in NIL and rev share. The support is there. As far as the landscape changing, I think the portal is here to stay (but one window hurts). There will be a bigger need to get and develop high school players more.

CFB and college sports are changing hourly it seems, but I don't think any of the changes would change that, but I could be wrong.

3.  After Cignetti is gone, what do you think about doing? What is the ideal situation?  Develop a coach from within?  Go out and spend big to get a big name 10 years down the road?  Keep trying to hit HRs with lower division guys who win at every level?

Oh man, this is so far off. IF the landscape doesn't change and IU can hold onto their current staff for that long (unlikely), I think you can groom someone to take over. The "Coach in Waiting" has not been very successful though. 

IU should look at every avenue though and go through their list for what they think is best. Pigeon holing themselves to having it be one way or the other is risky.

Good questions.

Posted by: @big-ryan

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You write “Will this landscape [building with high-star guys] change in the near future and, if so, in what ways and how will that affect Cignetti’s strategies. How does Indiana get out ahead of that?”

Forget stars and the ranking system.  Cignetti has. 

@bradstevens Rev share should only help IU since they’re in the Big Ten. Now, if they go to an uneven share policy or make players employees, I am not sure what happens regarding IU and if it be harmful or helpful

1. We dont need an army of 5*s to win games, and we are already seeing big strides forward in terms of recruiting. We now have 7 4*s in the 2026 class, which is equal to how many 4*s we have on our entire team this year. Recruiting is going to keep improving, with B1G resources and Cig's track record we will be able to be competitive for nearly any recruit the coaches target

2. Defeating the TTU boosters goal of forcing the conferences into a collective bargaining agreement is key. Having B1G resources and a larger than most booster base is a big leg up for IU. I could see further portal restrictions coming into play at some point, and if that happens we might need to shift NIL strategy to paying unproven but talented players over proven production

3. Cig's assistants have a strong record. One of his former DC's is killing it for Miami this year. Im sure we will have some great internal options whenever the time comes

@iunorth I’ve been stalking on other fan sites a lot lately and both Shanahan and Haines names come up quite a bit with the fan base. I think we will be hard pressed to keep them unfortunately. Especially with the coaching carousel this year.