So........Who is on the hot seat, and who isn't?
New coaches at Michigan; PSU; MSU; UCLA
Stable coaching situations at Illinois; Iowa; IU; Minnesota; Oregon; NW. Interesting situations at OSU & Washington
That leaves USC; Nebraska; Wisconsin; Purdue; MD; and Rutgers
Hottest seats in order imo:
1. Mike Locksley. 37-49 at MD; 4-8 last year; 39-75 overall. Almost a special category for Locksley. Presumably would already be gone but for an $8.8 current buyout, which debt-ridden MD can't pay. Was 2-26 from 2009-11 at New Mexico until rehabilitated at Bama by Sabin. Buyout drops to $4.4M next year. 1-8 in BT each of the last 2 years. You would think he'd have to go 7-5 in the regular season, at worst, to get another year.
2. Matt Rhule. 19-19 at Nebraska, 66-63 overall. 7-6 last year (and in '24); 4-5 in BT this year; 11-27 in NFL. The disastrous bowl game has to have warmed up his seat. Seems to be a guy the fans personally like, but this is business. Interesting schedule next year...3 gimmes in NC but BT schedule includes Oregon, OSU, Illinois & Iowa on the road & IU & Washington at home. They need to beat MSU, Rutgers & MD and at least 2 of the other 6 to go 5-4 in the BT and 8-4 overall. Would that be enough?
3. Luke Fickell. 17-20 at Wisconsin, 4-8 last year. 80-46 overall. First game is ND, at Green Bay. Ouch. BT schedule has PSU & Iowa away, USC at home. 3 more probable losses there. Also UCLA; MSU; Rutgers; MD: Purdue & Minnesota (at home). It seems like the AD likes him; however, I would think he'd have to go no worse than 7-5 overall & 5-4 in the BT to keep his job, as well as beating Minnesota.
4. Barry Odom. 2-10 at PU; 46-43 overall. 0-9 BT (only winless team). IU's situation speeds up Purdue's timeline, I would think. Normally I'd say no way Purdue would fire a HC after 2 years, but times have changed. Fairly tough schedule with ND at home & IU, Illinois, Iowa, UCLA & PSU on the road. Do have WF, MN, Washington, MD, Wisconsin & Ind, St. at home. I think he needs to win 3 at home or at UCLA and generally show improvement to keep his job. And stay within 40 of IU at Bloomington.
5. Lincoln Riley. 35-18 at USC, including 9-4 last year. 90-28 overall. Horrible bowl loss and pissing away the ND game have USC fans on edge, despite overall improvement. #1 HS recruiting class helps. Hired former coach Patterson (TCU) as DC....has a problem working with DCs...how will that go? Has OSU, Oregon & Washington at home, PSU & IU on the road. The rest of the schedule is manageable. If he loses 4 of 5 of the biggest games is he back for '27? Probably.
6. Greg Schiano. 99-108 for his 2 stints at Rutgers (68-67 & 31-41); 5-7 this season, 2-7 in the BT & declined a bowl; 11-21 in the NFL. Tough situation. Definitely looks like a competent coach, but nothing special. Getting killed by having crap for NIL. Rutgers fans are generally bummed but it seems, like the MD situation, that there's not much they can do. Lost some nice players in the portal, didn't get many. Maybe worst portal class of any BT team. Doesn't seem like a guy who would walk away, and they're probably not willing to fire him.
Now here are three coaches who aren't on the hot seat but have interesting situations;
7. David Braun. 19-19 at NW, 7-6 last year. 4-5 in the BT + a nice bowl win over a MAC team. This guy seems like he's on a bit of a roll, what with the $800M stadium debuting in '26 and a surprising competitiveness in BT play. I wonder if he's a NW lifer or would be willing to look elsewhere is he has another solid season?
8. PJ Fleck. 66-44 at Minnesota, 8-5 this year. 96-66 overall. A lot of people don't like Row the Boat, but I think he does a hell of a job. Prior to last year, there was a lot of talk about him wanting to move on to greener pastures. Have not heard anything since. With all the open jobs this year, was he passed over, has he decided to stay, or is he waiting for the right job? Seems like a MW guy.
9. Ryan Day. 82-22, 12-2 last year. Certainly not on the hot seat, but he seems like a combustible guy. Is he about ready to move on from the crazy OSU fans? Will he again reinvent himself? Go to the NFL?
Thoughts??
List looks pretty good. A few thoughts:
- Rhule has a $60-70M buyout. I think he's safe for another year.
- Lincoln has a really big buyout too, like $70M+. USC is pretty rich, but still looks like too much to get rid of him.
- I think Minny is fairly happy with PJ, he just got an extension. He's not the hot commodity he used to be it seems.
- I have no read on Ryan Day. He's in such a weird situation where they're always like preseason #1 and expected to win it all. I think he stays a while longer, it's still the best job in CFB.
Rutgers with $78M ath.dept deficit THIS YEAR. I guess neither the football nor the bball coach will be on the hot seat....
Chicago is the only school to ever drop out of the BT. Will we have another is about 3 years?
Looks like every coach will need to be above average next year!
Fickell needs to get something going.
Rhule is locked in for quite awhile. They had better love him, they gave him a 'Cig Effect' contract extension and buyout.
I thought a few years back Locksley would get something going at Maryland. Whoops.
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That’s a pretty good list. The only switch I would make is Braun not as hot as Fleck. I think PJ has hit his ceiling at Minnesota and is starting to regress.
Schiano is a legend at Rutgers, but they just can’t break through that ceiling. Sure, they have a huge deficit, but it may be costing them more by being mediocre.
Lincoln Riley at USC is interesting because if they don’t make the CFP this year after making a huge fuss and canceling the ND series, his seat could be super hot.
As always we can also wait and see which coach can’t keep it in their pants too.
Flaming hot seat: Locks and Fickell, both only kept their jobs due to the schools wincing at their buyouts. Theres no excuses this deep in their tenure to not go at least 7-5 this year. Locks has a mid-difficulty schedule and Wisconsin has a gauntlet again (their AD is such a moron for putting these schedules together). I think both lose their job after this season
Hot seat: Schiano, Odom, Riley. I dont think any of them get fired short of a total disaster year, but its basically their last chance before joining the lame duck coach tier.
Not hot yet: Rhule. Only reason he isn't higher on this list is they just gave him an extension. Rhule will be their coach for at least 3 more seasons out of financial necessity
I dont think anyone else is close to a hot seat. Braun is doing exactly what NW hoped he would do, Fleck has hit his ceiling but Minnesota doesnt have the money to compete at a higher level so they are happy with what they've got. Day is on a "hot seat" only in the minds of the most delusional OSU fans, the job is his as long as he wants it and continues making the playoffs at least every other year.
@hoosierdaddy I don't see Odom on the hot seat at all going into year 2.
@hoosierdaddy I don't see Odom on the hot seat at all going into year 2.
Odom isn’t on the hot seat. Locksley and Fickell are, but that’s likely it. Rhule hasn’t gotten it done in Lincoln, but they’re notoriously patient and will continue to be. SC is tiring of Riley, but that’s because expectations were sky high and he hasn’t delivered an elite team yet. Iowa is also wearing out on Ferentz, but he won’t leave until he’s ready. Nobody else is really close.
@jackskip23 I agree. I thought Ferentz was going to retire after breaking the Big Ten wins record.
@thehoosierhuddle the guys I put on my “hot seat” I don’t think get fired this year. I think this is basically their last year to show some form of progress before the season after that is do or die
@jackskip23 I don’t think ferentz is on a hot seat at all. Iowa fans I know were really pleased with their team this season - they think it was Ferentz’ best in a long time. They wished a few games went the other way but they know they had a good team
USC just had the #1 recruiting class, combined with Riley’s buyout and he is safe short of winning less than 7 games IMO. The year after that is when its playoffs or bust
@hoosierdaddy I don't see Odom on the hot seat at all going into year 2.
If they go 1-11, he might be gone. And I'm not so sure that they won't. Probably won't, but could.
@hoosierdaddy I don't see Odom on the hot seat at all going into year 2.
Rhule hasn’t gotten it done in Lincoln, but they’re notoriously patient and will continue to be.
Frank Solich, Bo Pelini and Bill Callahan would like a word.
If they go 1-11, he might be gone. And I'm not so sure that they won't. Probably won't, but could
Yeah, he’s likely gone if he doesn’t win a single P4 game. I don’t think we take joy in it enough that Purdue is the first B1G team in about 50 years to go winless in conference in back to back years
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