Numbers That Mattered: No. 4 Indiana vs. Minnesota

Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers following each of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!

Without further ado, let’s get into it:

275

…Represents the numbers of passing yards Indiana’s quarterbacks generated against Minnesota. This was our matchup to watch entering the game, as the Minnesota’s secondary and pass defense was ranked quite strongly going into this game. On top of that, Indiana’s passing attack has been lackluster over the past couple of games, raising concerns for fans. While the passing attack against the Golden Gophers was nowhere near perfect, it was enough to get the job done. Entering this game, Minnesota allowed an average of 165 passing yards per game, which ranked 3rd in the Big Ten. Getting over 100 yards more than their average is a big win, however efficient or inefficient the Hoosiers got there.

5.0

…Represents the yards per carry generated by Indiana running backs against Minnesota. This brings a huge sigh of relief, as Indiana running backs haven’t hit this number since the Hoosiers traveled to Piscataway to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Hopefully this is something Indiana can build on moving forward through their bye week, as an efficient rushing attack is truly the engine that moves this Mike Shanahan/Curt Cignetti offense.

93.1%

…Represents the highest win probability that the Golden Gophers had throughout the game this past Saturday. Naturally, this occurred after Minnesota’s kicker nailed a 60 yard field goal to take the lead with around 20 seconds remaining. I was surprised that this win probability wasn’t higher than 93.1%, but the math must have immense faith in Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers. It turns out, that faith was rewarded, as Paddy McAteer drilled a 60 yarder of his own to take the Hoosiers into overtime.

108th

…Represents where the Hoosiers rank nationwide when examining EPA/Play on 3rd and Medium situations (4-6 yards to go). This down and distance situation differs widely from other situations the Hoosiers have faced and is by far their worst performing situation and most pass-heavy situation compared to all others. The Hoosiers pass 85.7% of the time in these situations, which may seem intuitive as they need to convert, but it may speak further to a lack of confidence in the run game as well. This Indiana team has proven that they can rush for 4, 5, or 6 yards with ease in the past. However, stacked boxes in recent games have put a ceiling on these rushes as opposing defenses have dared Indiana to throw. Possibly, Indiana has played straight into their hands by opting for passes in almost 9 out of 10 of these situations, which is much easier to defend when you know what’s coming. Look out for this in the future – Indiana may be well served to switch things up in these situations to keep the defense on their toes.

+2.42

…Represents the Hoosiers’ Net Yards Per Play on offense over the course of the season thus far, good for #1 in the nation. This is a great measure for efficiency on offense. Despite the stats above, the chatter online, and the panic some have, this Indiana offense has been quite efficient at generating yards on a per play basis. A big factor in this metric is sacks taken. The Hoosiers have taken 13 sacks on the season over 9 games, which is one of the better per-game sack totals across the country. Sacks are inefficient, and the Hoosiers are strong at avoiding them. Couple this with explosive plays from the Indiana receivers, and you have a very efficient offense. Now, the concerns are still there. Consistency needs to be better, accuracy needs improvement, and variety needs to increase in certain down and distance situations, but this metric may tell us that the sky isn’t falling, even as much as the internet will try to tell us that it is.

Huge thank you to collegefootballdata.com for their data, metrics, and charts, espn.com for additional data pulls, and gameonpaper.com for additional metrics.

As always, thank you for reading! We’ll be back next week with more numbers and takeaways from the Hoosiers’ matchup against Minnesota this coming Saturday. Go IU!