Numbers that Matter: Indiana vs Minnesota

On Halloween, the Indiana Hoosiers will face the Minnesota Gophers for the first time since 2021. The Gophers lead the all-time series 40-26-3 and have won the last four matchups. Today, we will look at some of the numbers that could define the matchup.

29.0%

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the Gophers’ defense is their havoc rate. Minnesota generates a high 29.0% havoc rate and brings a blitz 37.5% of snaps. They rely heavily on forcing negative plays and putting the quarterback in uncomfortable situations. Conversely, Indiana’s offensive front and pass protection have allowed limited havoc, with a solid 18.1%. If Indiana’s offensive line can hold this 18.1% and if Josh Hoover can move the ball comfortably, then the Hoosiers should be in a good spot offensively. However, if Minnesota’s extra pressure pushes that disruption rate toward 35%, then the Gophers could secure a path to diminish Indiana’s offensive drives.

13.9%

As mentioned last week, Indiana’s offense thrives off of chunk plays and stretching the defense vertically, generating chunk gains on 13.9% of snaps and explosives on 4.8%. In contrast, Minnesota’s defense gives up chunk plays just 9.5% of plays and cuts opponents’ explosive rate down to 2.2%. , with 13.9%. Minnesota will likely try to force Indiana to move the ball slowly with short gains rather than giving up 40+ yard gains. However, because the Hoosiers have a 50.3% explosive success rate, they don’t necessarily need big chunk plays to move the chains; just intermediate ones. If the Gophers apply a blitz to disrupt the backfield and miss Hoover, then players like Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh will turn open spaces into big plays.

50.3%

The Hoosiers have totaled a 50.3% success rate on offense, meaning they stay ahead of the chains for more than half of their snaps. Minnesota’s defense consistently disrupts that rhythm, limiting opponents to a 41.8% success rate and a -0.12 EPA per play. The Hoosiers’ 34.3% play conversion rate poses a serious threat to the Gophers’ defense, which usually holds opponents to a 26.5% clip. The Hoosiers rarely waste a play, consistently staying ahead of the chains on early downs and picking up a fresh set of downs on more than one out of every three snaps. While Minnesota’s defense excels at forcing teams to make mistakes, the Hoosiers’ ability to move the ball early will make it difficult for the Gophers to create those disruptive opportunities.