Numbers that Matter: Indiana vs. Michigan

On Saturday, the Hoosiers will face the Wolverines in Michigan Stadium, and in many ways, the matchup will come down to numbers. Big Ten matchups rarely follow a script, but underlying numbers for Indiana and Michigan could offer a roadmap. With both teams’ statistical strengths largely neutralizing one another, the outcome will hinge on who maximizes scoring opportunities and who avoids critical mistakes.

6.2%

Michigan’s defense revolves around eliminating large chunk plays. Over six games, they have recorded a 6.2% chunk rate and an impressive 1.4% explosive rate. Conversely, Indiana’s passing game is built on vertical efficiency. The Hoosiers post an explosive pass rate of 7.4% and an impressive 26.1% chunk rate. This will be an interesting matchup to watch as everything will come down to which team is able to quiet the other. The Hoosiers’ receiving room averages 15.4 yards per reception. Wide receiver Nick Marsh leads the team with 18.3 yards per catch, and Charlie Becker is shortly behind with 17.8 yards per catch. Marsh and Becker will have to win the contested balls, and as opportuniies to stretch the defense vertically could be limited.

45.8%

According to Huddle IQ, the Hoosiers convert 45.8% of their pass plays into a fresh set of downs or scores. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover has a passer completion rating of 63.9%, converting 108 of 169 attempts, while also recording 18 passing touchdowns. Hoover has been relatively efficient at moving the chains; however, on Saturday he will be tested. Michigan allows only a 23.8% total play conversion rate and holds late downs to just 31.3%. If the Wolverines force Indiana into passing situations, the Hoosiers’ ability to sustain drives will be tested. Indiana’s offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan will need to be inventive in both his run concepts and passing schemes in order to keep the chains moving against this Michigan defense.

2.8 YAC/Att.

The Hoosiers’ ground game has become one of the most productive aspects of Indiana’s offense. Indiana’s running back room averages 200.1 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Turbo Richard leads the team with 643 yards on the season and 7.4 yards per attempt. Lee Beebe is second with 575 total yards and averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Richard and Beebe’s downhill power have led the Hoosiers to average 3.9 yards after contact per carry. However, on the other side of the line, Michigan’s defense allows only 2.8 YAC/Att. Again, the Hoosiers will be tested, and players like Richard and Beebe will need to fight for every extra inch in order to get into manageable down and distance. Manageable third downs could be rare for the Hoosiers, forcing Indiana to rely on the short passing game to move the chains.