Numbers That Mattered: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers following each of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!

Without further ado, let’s get into it:

68

…Represents Jeremiah Smith’s receiving yards from Saturday’s matchup. I mentioned in my matchup to watch article earlier in the week that Smith averages 9 receptions for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns per game thus far in 2026. I theorized that if the Hoosiers held Smith below those numbers, Indiana would have a strong chance to win. Going above and beyond, Indiana’s defense held Smith to about half of his averages, and it turns out, they did have a strong chance to win. Of course, it did not work out, but we’re not going to talk about that right now. Indiana’s secondary was top notch against the best receiver in college football, and that is worthy of immense praise.

73

…Represents Indiana’s total rushing yards against Ohio State, which ranks as the 3rd lowest of the Cignetti era, and now represents back to back games of much lower than average team rushing for the Hoosiers. Ohio State regularly put several defenders in the box and forced the Hoosiers to throw the ball, which limited rushing opportunities. It seems there is now a book on how to stop Indiana’s potent offense, and it is up the Head Coach Curt Cignetti, Offensive Coordinator Mike Shanahan, and all players of the offense to make adjustments and attack opposing defenses in different, more creative ways.

40.1%

…Represents Indiana’s win probability on the now infamous 4th and 4 play that ended the game. If these win probability metrics understood context and adjusted for routes run, openness, and catch probability, Indiana’s win probability would likely be much higher. Unfortunately, the game of football is a game of inches. Sometimes it falls in Indiana’s favor – like Omar Cooper Jr.’s catch against Penn State – and sometimes it falls in favor of the opposition, like it did on Saturday. Indiana will power forward and no doubt use this as motivation for the future. Indiana will be fine, Nick Marsh will be fine, and when the Hoosiers win the National Championship this will all be a funny story that we look back on.

18%

…Represents Indiana’s defensive havoc rate on Saturday, compared to Ohio State’s 13% havoc rate. Havoc Rate measures, well, havoc, caused by the defense. It measures tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups, fumbles, sacks, and more. Basically, anything a defense can do that disrupts play, havoc rate combines it all into one metric. At 18%, Indiana’s defense performed at a 73rd percentile level on Saturday when compared to all other FBS teams playing in week 7, which is especially impressive given the potency of Ohio State’s offense. This is a huge bright spot for Defensive Coordinator Bryant Haines and the IU defense to hang their hat on into the future. They controlled Jeremiah Smith, brought pressure on Julian Sayin, and stuffed opposing rushes at a high rate. There is a lot to be proud of for this Indiana defense.

Far Bottom Right Quadrant

…Represents where Indiana falls as of this writing on collegefootballdata.com’s EPA (expected points added) chart across all FBS teams. As you can see below, Indiana pretty clearly lands at the #2 spot in overall EPA (offense vs. defense) behind Miami. This puts into context just how well Indiana has been on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they are clearly 2nd in the nation on an EPA context, while on defense there are several clusters bundled together. However, after IU’s performance against Ohio State, it is clear that this defense is here to play.

Huge thank you to collegefootballdata.com for their data, metrics, and charts, ESPN for additional data pulls, and gameonpaper.com for additional metrics.

As always, thank you for reading! We’ll be back next week with more numbers and takeaways from the Hoosiers’ matchup against Michigan this coming Saturday. Go IU!