Numbers that Matter: Indiana vs. Ohio State

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break a Big Ten championship rematch against Ohio State.

2.31

I start to break down this game and my eyes are pulled in a million different directions with all the talent on the field and storylines off of it. How does Indiana cover Jeremiah Smith? Can Ohio State’s secondary slow down Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh? Does Julian Sayin feel pressure from the Indiana defensive line like he did last December? There is plenty to analyze. What I want to start with, however, is how Indiana’s defense can slow down the Buckeye offense.

A good statistical sign for the Hoosiers defense is that they are once again generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks without having to send additional bodies. The Hoosiers are 132nd nationally in blitz rate but 6th nationally in pressure rate, a sign they are able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks with just four bodies, not leaving the back end of their defense exposed. We saw this in the Big Ten championship as Sayin was sacked five times.

If Indiana can keep up that kind of pressure, they will force the Buckeyes to run the football. This plays directly into the defense’s strength, as the Hoosiers currently are 4th nationally in yards per rushing attempt, allowing 2.31 yards per carry. While the Hoosier defense has been prone to allow longer runs against scrambling quarterbacks, this has not been the case when the offense is forced to hand the ball off to running backs.

If Indiana ultimately prevails and ties the longest win streak in College Football Playoff era history, it is likely we identify having generated pressure on Sayin and limiting the Buckeye rushing attack as the main cause.

53.5%

If the Hoosiers are unsuccessful, it is likely they are another victim of the Jeremiah Smith freight train. Smith is the current Heisman Trophy betting favorite and is on pace to finish his college career as one of the most decorated receivers in college football history. New Buckeye offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has been force feeding Smith through the first half of the season and it has worked; Smith is just 300 yards shy of his season output in receiving yards last year and has 11 touchdowns on 48 receptions, nearly 25% of his catches.

“Not only do they have a lot of excellent players, they have a wow player,” said Curt Cignetti on Monday. “That’s the only word to describe him [Jeremiah Smith] that I can think of…We got two really good ones. He’s a freak. We’re going to have to do a great job on him.”

Smith is averaging 19.1 yards per reception, up 5.3 from the 13.8 national average. Per Hudl IQ, 24.3% of his targets go for a gain of at least 30 yards and 53.5% of his targets go for at least 15 yards.

He had 8 catches for 144 yards with D’Angelo Ponds on him the last time these two teams clashed. This go around, that statline could be his floor.

28%

When looking at the Indiana offense, the key question is whether the Hoosiers can put together longer, sustained drives to wear down the Buckeye defense and give their own side some rest. Despite some online criticism, Indiana remains one of the country’s elite offenses, though they are winning differently this season. Ranking fifth nationally in explosive play rate, second in rushing, and 20th in passing, they have traded consistent down-to-down success for boom-or-bust plays. We saw this exact dynamic against Nebraska, where the Cornhuskers heavily dominated the time of possession even though Indiana walked away with the win.

This boom-or-bust nature is evident in their third-down numbers. Indiana has faced just 64 third downs this year, which is the 20th fewest nationally, but they are finding themselves in third-and-long situations more frequently, with only 28% categorized as third-and-short. For Ohio State to prevail, their defense must continue forcing the Hoosiers into these difficult third-and-long spots and get off the field by limiting explosive plays. If the Buckeyes can force Indiana to sustain long drives, they should win. However, if Indiana’s playmakers at receiver and tailback continue to generate explosive plays, they will successfully keep relentless scoreboard pressure on the Buckeyes.

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!