Numbers That Mattered: No. 6 Indiana vs. Rutgers

Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers following each of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!

Without further ado, let’s get into it:

2.38

…Represents the expected points added per attempt (EPA/Attempt) when IU passes in the deep-middle area of the field. It is the highest EPA/Attempt among all passing locations the Hoosiers look to. This makes sense intuitively – think of these passes as all the deep touchdown shots up the seam to Charlie Becker that we’ve seen this year. Hoover has thrown only 8 passes in this region, but has completed 6 of them and their potential for points is incredibly high. This illustrates the lethal passing attack that Hoover and the Hoosiers have right now. It’s balanced with a great running game which opens up the door for this deep middle region that the Hoosiers can attack at the perfect moment. This is a difficult area to attack of course, but the Hoosiers do so about 2 times per game and have a high completion percentage when they do. They scheme this area open, attack the defense’s vulnerabilities, and score points in this area game after game.

~70%

…Represents the percent of throws that Josh Hoover throws to either the short-left or short-right sides of the field. The Hoosiers have over a 70% completion percentage on this throws, so it serves as a very productive option for the passing attack. Often these will materialize as a quick throw after an RPO where the IU receivers catch the ball with space to move for yards after the catch, or receive the ball via an out route. It is an easy way for the Hoosiers to move the chains, lull the defense to sleep, boost the rushing attack, and then capitalize with a deep shot over the middle (like we saw in the paragraph above). So in sum, the Hoosiers direct their passing offense to the short-left or short-right sides about 70% of the time when passing. They do so very effectively and it opens up the offense for deeper shots down the line.

8.80

…Represents the yards per carry that Hoosier running backs earn when running to the left side, which is the best running direction on the IU offense. Running behind elite left tackle Carter Smith will do this to a rushing attack. Running to the right side, the Hoosiers earn a 7.70 yards per carry and earn a 5.70 yards per carry running up the middle. Both are still very elite numbers, mind you, but the left side serves as the best option so far for this elite Indiana rushing attack and offensive line.

72.6%

…Represents the highest completion percentage that opposition quarterbacks have in a specific region against the Indiana defense. This region that sees such a strong completion percentage is the short-right side of the field. All other areas of the field (besides the deep-middle area, which just has two attempts), are at a 61% or lower completion percentage. This opens up a few questions of why the short-right side is seeing better success than all other areas of the field. Does it have to do with where the best opposing wide receivers line up, where we either shade coverage away from the right side to cover them if the line up on the left, or if they line up on the right are they simply playing well? Or, does it have to do with Indiana’s injuries to the secondary? Or, is Bryant Haines strategically allowing this room for the opposing offense on the short-right side of the field in a way to optimize the defense. All of these theories could be at play, and it’s likely it’s a combination of everything. Nonetheless, it will serve as an interesting region to watch out on defense for as the Hoosiers continue their season. Check out the graphic below for a visual.

Graphic Below

…Represents where Indiana falls on a plot that compares EPA per play on both offense and defense. The bottom-right quadrant is best. The lower you are, the better defense you have. The more to the right you are, the better offense you have. So across the Big Ten, Indiana’s offense has been the best of the bunch by far. Defensively, there is a large cluster of 6-8 teams vying for the top spot. This follows “the eye-test” so far this season. We know the IU offense is incredible and surgical, but the defense still has room to grow. While playing at an elite level, we’ve seen what a defense can be under Bryant Haines over the past two seasons. This defense has not yet hit those levels, but I have full confidence that the Hoosiers can get there over the course of the season.

Huge thank you to collegefootballdata.com for their incredible database of metrics, trends, and graphics that were used for this article.

As always, thank you for reading! We’ll be back next week with more numbers and takeaways from the Hoosiers’ matchup against Nebraska this coming Saturday. Go IU!